NFL Best Bets: Favorite Plays for the Early Games on Sunday, September 18, 2022

We went 4-1 with our NFL best bets last week and we're looking to stay hot with our plays for the early slate of Week 2 on Sunday, September 18. We see quite a few opportunities to make some money with this bunch of games, so make sure you follow along to try and build your bankrolls with us!  

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Best Bets for the Early Games on Sunday, September 18, 2022

New York Jets vs. Cleveland Browns - 1:00PM ET

The Baltimore Ravens earned a 24-9 win over the Jets last week, but the game was actually a lot closer than the final score suggests. New York’s defense did a very good job of containing both Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore running game, and that is something that is really important heading into a meeting with Cleveland.

Whereas Jackson had the ability to make big throws over the top of the Jets defense, the same can’t be said for Browns quarterback Jacoby Brissett. Brissett is merely a game manager that does most of his work with shorter throws. With that in mind, if New York does its job in slowing down the Cleveland running game, it’s hard to envision the Browns offense doing enough to cover by more than a touchdown. Almost everything Cleveland does on offense runs through running backs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt.

Even the Jets offense should look a bit better against this Browns defense, which isn’t quite as good as the one the Ravens trot out on a weekly basis. New York will probably be better when Zach Wilson ultimately returns from a knee injury, but the passing offense showed signs of life towards the end of the Baltimore game. Perhaps Joe Flacco will start this one a bit better and lead the Jets on a few successful drives. It shouldn’t take much scoring for the Jets to cover against this Browns team.

Cleveland is also just 3-12 against the spread after having played a road game since Kevin Stefanski became the team’s head coach. So, while this is the team’s home opener, the Browns might not feed off the energy in the way you’d expect. We also suggest keeping an eye on rookie corner Sauce Gardner in this game, as he'll be out to prove that he can defend a receiver of Amari Cooper's caliber. 

PICK: Jets +7.5 vs. Browns (-138 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

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Washington Commanders vs. Detroit Lions - 1:00PM ET

The Lions were unable to complete their comeback over the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 1, but they played well in the second half and now get a more beatable opponent in Week 2. The Commanders might be 1-0 coming into this game, but they beat a Jacksonville Jaguars team that is supposed to be amongst the worst in the league this season. That isn’t something that will strike fear in Detroit, which has to feel confident that win No. 1 is on the horizon.

The Lions are just the much better offensive team in this match-up, as D’Andre Swift (who is likely to play, despite being listed as questionable) and Jamaal Williams are one of the better running back duos in the league and Detroit has a rock-solid offensive line. The two of them should be rather productive in this game, even with Washington having a good defensive line. Jacksonville ran the ball effectively in Week 1 and isn’t built nearly as well as the Lions in the running game.

Jared Goff and the Lions passing game should also get going in this one. It took Goff some time to settle in against the Eagles, but he ultimately threw for 215 yards with two touchdowns and only one pick in that game. He’ll now look to shred a Commanders secondary that let Trevor Lawrence throw for 275 yards last week.

It’s also worth noting that Dan Campbell’s teams are 7-0 ATS when coming off a game in which an opponent rushed for 175 or more yards. Along with defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn, Campbell will look to have his defense ready to fix that. Fortunately, the Commanders don’t have a great running game. And Washington also has Carson Wentz at quarterback, and he’s capable of turning in a dud now that he’s not playing in front of his home fans.  

PICK: Lions -1 (-110 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

New England Patriots vs. Pittsburgh Steelers - 1:00PM ET

The Patriots are coming off a really lousy performance against the Miami Dolphins, while the Steelers went on the road and beat the Cincinnati Bengals, the defending AFC champions. That makes this spread look a bit fishy, as everything from last week suggests the Steelers should be favored over the Pats at home. But the oddsmakers know that you just can’t write Bill Belichick off after a loss. And even if you can, there’s no way he’s writing back.

Since Belichick became the head coach of the Patriots, New England is 11-3 ATS when coming off a loss by 10 or more points against a division rival. The Patriots are also 28-11 ATS when coming off a loss by 10 points or more under Belichick, in general. If that’s not enough, the team is also 30-19 ATS when coming off a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse under Belichick. And with all of that in mind, we expect New England to really clean things up heading into this meeting with Pittsburgh.

Belichick has also made a career of feasting on unproven quarterbacks, and he and his son, defensive coordinator Scotty Evil Steve Belichick, should be able to come up with a game plan that really throws Mitchell Trubisky off. And with running back Najee Harris banged up, it’s just hard to see how Pittsburgh will find a way to score on a New England defense that is pretty good — and very motivated after last week’s loss.

Offensively, Mac Jones will do a better job of protecting the football in this game than he did against the Dolphins and we expect him to bounce back in a big way. Look for New England to get back on track with a huge road win.  

PICK: Patriots -2 vs. Steelers (-138 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

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