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NFL 2021 MVP Predictions, Picks, Odds and Best Bets: Week 5 Preview
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
We're four weeks into the 2021 NFL season and the MVP race is HOT already, with Kyler Murray the current betting favorite.
Here, we’ll give you a rundown on the favorites and a few underdogs that could score you some big cash come the end of the regular season if you place an NFL Futures bet now.
Get the best NFL predictions and bets all season long by using the revolutionary Dimers.com Quick Picks section
As recently as 2019, Lamar Jackson won the MVP at ridiculous starting odds of +10000, showing there is reason to bet on some sleepers for the NFL MVP every year!
2021 NFL MVP Odds 💰
Kyler Murray (+400)
Josh Allen (+600)
Patrick Mahomes (+700)
Tom Brady (+800)
Dak Prescott (+800)
Aaron Rodgers (+900)
Matthew Stafford (+900)
Justin Herbert (+900)
Derek Carr (+2000)
Lamar Jackson (+2000)
Russell Wilson (+2000)
2021 NFL MVP Hot Starts 🏆
Kyler Myrray (+400)
Kyler looks good, like REALLY good. After playing injured last season, many people seemed to have forgotten just what a fit and firing Murray could look like. But, they've all been reminded over the first month of this season.
In our pre-season MVP betting preview, we put forward Kyler has one of our value bets, citing the need for his Cards to have a good record in order for him to be in the conversation. A 4-0 start including a big win over the Rams is exactly what we needed.
These odds are probably too short to bet on right now, with a host of guys' odds still moving around week-to-week. If you like Kyler to win the award, you may be best off waiting for Arizona to lose a game or two and jumping on his inflated odds.
Josh Allen (+600)
Our top pick for the 2021 MVP (at +1300) has got off to the kind of start we wanted to see (barring the Week 1 loss to the Steelers).
Since that disappointing first-up game against Pittsburgh, the Bills' offense has been massive, putting up 118 points in Weeks 2-4. Those three games also include to shutouts, with 35-0 and 40-0 wins in the books for Buffalo.
And unsurprisingly, a big part of this run has been Josh Allen. In these three games, the QB has averaged around 230 passing yards, but more importantly has thrown for a tidy eight TDs.
If the Bills continue to put up these offensive numbers and finish as one of the top teams in the AFC, Allen's odds will only go one way.
Dak Prescott (+800)
The Cowboys might be back? It definitely looks like it so far.
With Dak performing magic weekly, the rush duo of Zeke and Pollard getting it done, and the defense looking like a Top-5 D in the league, Dallas look to be a serious postseason threat.
But before we get to the postseason, there's a couple of player awards that some of their dudes will be eyeing off.
Prescott is the favorite for the Comeback Player of the Year, but the narrative that surrounds that injury, combined with the way he's throwing the ball, makes him a big chance to win the MVP.
He already has 10 TDs to just 2 INTs this season, which has him on track for a 42 TD, 8 INT season. These are crazy numbers that if he were to maintain them, would almost guarantee a Top-3 MVP finish considering the fact they're almost a lock to top their division.
2021 NFL MVP LA Chances ☀️
Matthew Stafford (+900)
These odds look really good! Stafford and the Ram's offense was the talk of the town before last week's loss and as long as they get back on track soon, then he will be one of the absolute favorites for the award.
The Rams are 3-1, Stafford is averaging over 300 yards and has 11 TD for just one INT. These numbers are ridiculous and if they Cards' loss wasn't there most recent result, his odds would probably be up there with Allen right now, whose one loss came back in Week 1.
Sean McVay has the offense cooking right now, with Cooper Kupp and Van Jefferson seemingly benefiting the most from Stafford's arrival in LA.
If Stafford can outperform Russell Wilson in Seattle this week, his odds will come in from the current +900. Definitely one to keep an eye on.
Justin Herbert (+900)
So, as I write this, Justin Herbert is currently lighting up SoFi Stadium, with 3 TDs in the first half, giving his Bolts a 21-0 lead of the Raiders.
Before this game started, Herbert's MVP odds were +1600, which if you got it, is looking very good right now!
The biggest requirement for Herb to win the MVP is probably going to be for the Chargers to finish above the Chiefs in the AFC West. If the first month is anything to go by though, LA is a serious chance of topping the division.
Lamar won the MVP two years ago in his second season, so it definitely isn't far-fetched that Justin could do the same. And boy, is he fun to watch and root for!
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2021 NFL MVP Sleepers 🔮
Lamar Jackson (+2000)
Three teams in the AFC North have started the season 3-1, but only one of them appears to have an MVP chance.
Lamar has had some big moments already this season, highlighted by the win against the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football in Week 2.
If Baltimore hold off the Browns and Bengals and win the division with at least 12 wins, Lamar will be the talk of the town, with a second MVP very much in the offing.
Similarly to the current favorite, Jackson is a genuine dual threat QB who will continue to not only win, but post big-time highlights that fans will see and talk about for the rest of the season.
Russell Wilson (+2000)
Russ is still yet to receive an MVP bote but this coule be the year, and here's why: a more competitive division.
If Russ can lead the Seahawks to big wins over Kyler and Stafford, he's going to be looked upon very favorably for the MVP. And it all starts this week against the Rams.
All odds correct at time of publishing.
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Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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