Mets vs. Phillies prediction: Why Philadelphia is favored to win Thursday's MLB matchup [9/11/2025]

The Philadelphia Phillies will square off with the New York Mets in MLB action at Citizens Bank Park on Thursday, beginning at 7:15PM ET.

The Phillies will have Jesús Luzardo (13-6, 4.01 ERA) as their starting pitcher, while the Mets are going with David Peterson (9-5, 3.72 ERA).

Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven MLB model projects the Phillies as the most likely winner of today's game.

For expanded analysis of Thursday's matchup, including best bets and picks, visit our interactive Mets vs. Phillies predictions page.

Phillies vs. Mets prediction: Who will win, cover the run line?

Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's MLB game between the Mets and Phillies 10,000 times as part of our MLB predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives the Phillies a 52% chance of defeating the Mets.

According to our model, the Mets (+1.5) have a 65% chance of covering the run line, while the 8-run over/under has a 54% chance of going over.

Mets vs. Phillies odds [9/11/2025]

We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Mets	Phillies
Run Line	+1.5 (-190)	-1.5 (+164)
Moneyline	+100	-118
Total	o8 (-114)	u8 (-105)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

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Mets vs. Phillies picks and best bets

Our model's strongest edge in today's Mets vs. Phillies matchup is on the run line.

Our expert predictions, matched against the best odds, reveal the best MLB picks and MLB best bets for every game throughout the season.

Unlimited access to our complete suite of picks, including this one, is available via Dimers Pro.

Calling Our Shot's free MLB picks

Calling Our Shot produces daily MLB betting content, including the latest predictions featured below.

Mets vs. Phillies game-day updates and essential details

Thursday's MLB game between the Phillies and Mets at Citizens Bank Park is scheduled to commence at 7:15PM ET.

• Who: New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies
• Date: Thursday, September 11, 2025
• Time: 7:15PM ET/4:15PM PT
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park

Dimers' in-depth preview of Thursday's Mets vs. Phillies matchup includes our prediction, picks and the latest betting odds.

Before making any Mets vs. Phillies picks, be sure to check out the latest MLB predictions and betting advice from Dimers Pro.

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Conclusion

We predict the Phillies, with a 52% win probability, will likely beat the Mets on Thursday.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Mets vs. Phillies insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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