Liberty vs. Mercury prediction: Why Phoenix is favored to win Game 3 [2025 WNBA Playoffs]

The Phoenix Mercury and New York Liberty will meet in Game 3 of the WNBA Playoffs at PHX Arena on Friday, starting at 9:00PM ET.

Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' proven WNBA model projects the Mercury as the most likely winner of Game 3.

The Mercury, with stars like Satou Sabally, Kahleah Copper and Alyssa Thomas, will face off against the Liberty, who feature Sabrina Ionescu, Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones.

For expanded analysis of Friday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks, visit our interactive Liberty vs. Mercury predictions page.

Mercury vs. Liberty prediction: Who will win Game 3?

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Friday's WNBA game between the Liberty and Mercury 10,000 times as part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives the Mercury a 58% chance of beating the Liberty in Game 3 of the series.

According to our model, the Liberty (+3) have a 53% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 155.5 points has a 62% chance of going over.

Liberty vs. Mercury Game 3 odds

We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Liberty	Mercury
Spread	+3 (-110)	-3 (-108)
Moneyline	+130	-150
Total	o155.5 (-110)	u155.5 (-110)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

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Liberty vs. Mercury picks and best bets for Game 3

Our model's strongest edge in today's Liberty vs. Mercury matchup is on the spread.

Our expert predictions, aligned with the best odds, reveal the best WNBA picks and WNBA best bets for every game throughout the season.

Unlimited access to our complete set of picks, including this one, is available via Dimers Pro.

Liberty vs. Mercury Game 3 player props

WNBA player props are a great way to wager on the New York vs. Phoenix matchup without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at PHX Arena.

Sabrina Ionescu is expected to lead the Liberty in scoring, while Satou Sabally is projected to be the top scorer for the Mercury.

Dimers Pro users can access a full range of player props and projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and more, for every WNBA game this season.

Liberty vs. Mercury Game 3 updates and essential details

Friday's Game 3 between the Mercury and Liberty at PHX Arena is scheduled to commence at 9:00PM ET.

• Who: New York Liberty vs. Phoenix Mercury
• Date: Friday, September 19, 2025
• Time: 9:00PM ET/6:00PM PT
• Venue: PHX Arena

Dimers' in-depth preview of Friday's Liberty vs. Mercury matchup includes our prediction, picks and the latest betting odds.

Before making any Liberty vs. Mercury picks, be sure to check out the latest WNBA predictions and betting advice from Dimers Pro.

Conclusion

We predict the Mercury, with a 58% win probability, will likely beat the Liberty on Friday.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Liberty vs. Mercury insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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