Liberty vs. Mercury prediction: Why New York is favored to win Game 1 [2025 WNBA Playoffs]

WNBA Playoffs action continues on Sunday at 5:00PM ET as the New York Liberty lock horns with the Phoenix Mercury at PHX Arena.

Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced WNBA model projects the Liberty as the most likely winner of Game 1.

"Using the most recent data, our experts ran 10,000 simulations of Sunday's Liberty-Mercury game," said Dimers' Chief Content Officer, Nick Slade.

"After accounting for recent updates and other variables, our prediction shows the Liberty with a win probability of 60%, while the Mercury have 40%."

The Mercury, who have the likes of Kahleah Copper, Satou Sabally and Alyssa Thomas, will face off against the Liberty, who feature Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu and Jonquel Jones.

For further insights into Sunday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks, visit our interactive Liberty vs. Mercury predictions page.

Mercury vs. Liberty prediction: Who will win Game 1?

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's WNBA game between the Liberty and Mercury 10,000 times as part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives the Liberty a 60% chance of beating the Mercury in Game 1 of the series.

According to our model, the Liberty (-2) have a 53% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 164 points has a 56% chance of going over.

Liberty vs. Mercury Game 1 odds

We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Liberty	Mercury
Spread	-2 (-110)	+2 (-108)
Moneyline	-134	+114
Total	o164 (-110)	u164 (-105)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

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Liberty vs. Mercury picks and best bets for Game 1

Our model's strongest edge in today's Liberty vs. Mercury matchup is on the spread.

Our expert predictions, matched against the current odds, reveal the best WNBA picks and WNBA best bets for every game throughout the season.

Unlimited access to our complete suite of picks, including this one, is available via Dimers Pro.

Liberty vs. Mercury Game 1 player props

WNBA player props are an enjoyable way to wager on Sunday's Liberty vs. Mercury game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at PHX Arena.

Breanna Stewart is expected to lead the Liberty in scoring, while Kahleah Copper is projected to be the top scorer for the Mercury.

Dimers Pro users can access a full range of player props and projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and more, for every WNBA game this season.

Liberty vs. Mercury Game 1 updates and essential details

Sunday's Game 1 between the Mercury and Liberty at PHX Arena is scheduled to start at 5:00PM ET.

• Who: New York Liberty vs. Phoenix Mercury
• Date: Sunday, September 14, 2025
• Time: 5:00PM ET/2:00PM PT
• Venue: PHX Arena

Dimers' in-depth preview of Sunday's Liberty vs. Mercury matchup includes our prediction, picks and the latest betting odds.

Before making any Liberty vs. Mercury picks, be sure to check out the latest WNBA predictions and betting advice from Dimers Pro.

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Conclusion

We predict the Liberty, with a 60% win probability, will likely beat the Mercury on Sunday.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Liberty vs. Mercury insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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