Patriots vs. Dolphins prediction: Why Miami is favored to win in NFL Week 2, 2025

The Miami Dolphins and New England Patriots are scheduled to meet in Week 2 of the NFL season at Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday, starting at 1:00PM ET.

Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven NFL model predicts the Dolphins as the most likely winner of today's game.

"Using the most recent data, our experts ran 10,000 simulations of Sunday's Patriots-Dolphins game," said Dimers' Chief Content Officer, Nick Slade.

"After accounting for recent updates and other variables, our prediction shows the Dolphins with a win probability of 59%, while the Patriots have 41%."

This gameday Patriots vs. Dolphins betting preview builds on my Patriots vs. Dolphins prediction that was posted earlier in the week.

For a closer look at today’s game, including the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks, visit our interactive Patriots vs. Dolphins predictions page.

Patriots vs. Dolphins Predictions

Since our Patriots-Dolphins predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's NFL matchup between the Patriots and Dolphins 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives the Dolphins a 59% chance of beating the Patriots in Week 2 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Dolphins winning 22-20.

According to our model, the Dolphins (-1.5) have a 58% chance of covering the spread, while the 42.5-point over/under has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.

Patriots vs. Dolphins odds

We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Patriots	Dolphins
Spread	+1.5 (-110)	-1.5 (-110)
Moneyline	+110	-125
Total	o42.5 (-110)	u42.5 (-105)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

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Patriots vs. Dolphins picks and best bets

Our model's strongest edge in today's Patriots vs. Dolphins matchup is on the over/under.

Our expert predictions, matched against the latest odds, reveal the best NFL picks and NFL best bets for every game throughout the season.

Unlimited access to our full suite of picks, including this one, is available via Dimers Pro.

Patriots vs. Dolphins TD scorers

Who will score an anytime touchdown in Patriots vs. Dolphins?

According to our model, Miami's De'Von Achane is most likely to score the first TD in Patriots vs. Dolphins.

Our projections give Achane a 16.5% chance of scoring the first TD at Hard Rock Stadium, while the Dolphins running back is a 53.3% chance of registering an anytime touchdown.

First touchdown scorer predictions

New England Patriots

Player	First TD Probability
TreVeyon Henderson (RB)	8.3%
Rhamondre Stevenson (RB)	7.4%
Stefon Diggs (WR)	6.1%

Miami Dolphins

Player	First TD Probability
De'Von Achane (RB)	16.5%
Tyreek Hill (WR)	9.7%
Jaylen Waddle (WR)	6.6%

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

New England Patriots

Player	Anytime TD Probability
TreVeyon Henderson (RB)	34.3%
Rhamondre Stevenson (RB)	31.2%
Stefon Diggs (WR)	26.4%

Miami Dolphins

Player	Anytime TD Probability
De'Von Achane (RB)	53.3%
Tyreek Hill (WR)	36.3%
Jaylen Waddle (WR)	26.3%

Patriots vs Dolphins player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Patriots and Dolphins. For detailed projections, join Dimers Pro.

Already a Dimers Pro member? Head to our Patriots-Dolphins page now to access every player prop projection.

Patriots vs. Dolphins quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Patriots' Drake Maye is projected to throw for fewer yards than the Dolphins' Tua Tagovailoa.

Patriots rushing

TreVeyon Henderson, Rhamondre Stevenson and Drake Maye are projected to be the leading rushers for the Patriots.

Player	Position
TreVeyon Henderson	RB
Rhamondre Stevenson	RB
Drake Maye	QB

Dolphins rushing

De'Von Achane, Ollie Gordon and Tua Tagovailoa are expected to lead the Dolphins in rushing yards.

Player	Position
De'Von Achane	RB
Ollie Gordon	RB
Tua Tagovailoa	QB

Patriots receiving

Stefon Diggs, Kayshon Boutte, Hunter Henry, DeMario Douglas and TreVeyon Henderson are projected to top the receiving yards for the Patriots.

Player	Position
Stefon Diggs	WR
Kayshon Boutte	WR
Hunter Henry	TE
DeMario Douglas	WR
TreVeyon Henderson	RB

Dolphins receiving

Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, De'Von Achane, Malik Washington and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine are projected to lead the Dolphins in receiving yards.

Player	Position
Tyreek Hill	WR
Jaylen Waddle	WR
De'Von Achane	RB
Malik Washington	WR
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	WR

Patriots vs. Dolphins game-day updates and essential details

The NFL Week 2 action between the Dolphins and Patriots at Hard Rock Stadium is scheduled to start at 1:00PM ET.

• Who: New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins
• Date: Sunday, September 14, 2025
• Time: 1:00PM ET/10:00AM PT
• Venue: Hard Rock Stadium

Dimers' in-depth preview of this week's Patriots vs. Dolphins matchup includes our prediction, picks and the latest betting odds.

Before making any Patriots vs. Dolphins picks, be sure to check out the latest NFL predictions and betting advice from Dimers Pro.

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Conclusion

We predict the Dolphins, with a 59% win probability, will likely beat the Patriots in Week 2 of the NFL season.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Patriots vs. Dolphins insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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