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NBA First Basket Predictions for Thursday Include Nikola Jokic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander [5/15/2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Our expert analysis on Thursday's NBA first basket market.
This Thursday, May 15th, it's time for an exciting day of NBA basketball, with the Thunder taking on the Nuggets at 8:30PM ET.
After scrutinizing Thursday's NBA simulation results this morning (see Dimers Pro for full access), our team of data analysts have announced their best first basket bet of the day.
Additionally, this article reveals the NBA players our predictive analytics model has identified as having the highest probability of scoring the first basket in Thursday's lone game.
Let's dive into today's NBA first basket news and updates.
NBA Players to Watch Today
Based on the most recent latest NBA Injury Report, Thursday's NBA slate is expected to feature big names such as Nikola Jokic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams, each with a high chance of scoring the first basket when they take to the court.
Who Will Score the First Basket Tonight? [NBA Cheat Sheet for May 15, 2025]
Thanks to simulating Thursday's NBA game 10,000 times, Dimers has determined the list of players most likely to score the first basket.
| Player (Team) | First Basket Probability |
|---|---|
| Nikola Jokic (Nuggets) | 14.8% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder) | 14.4% |
| Jalen Williams (Thunder) | 12.2% |
| Jamal Murray (Nuggets) | 11.8% |
| Aaron Gordon (Nuggets) | 10.3% |
| Isaiah Hartenstein (Thunder) | 9.1% |
| Chet Holmgren (Thunder) | 9.0% |
| Christian Braun (Nuggets) | 6.9% |
| Luguentz Dort (Thunder) | 5.3% |
According to our data-driven analysis, the most likely NBA player to score the first basket in Thursday's clash is Nikola Jokic, with a probability of 14.8%.
Following Jokic closely, the players with the next highest likelihood of scoring the first basket today are Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at 14.4% and Jalen Williams at 12.2%.
Dimers Pro Pick of the Day: NBA First Basket [Thursday, 5/15/2025]
Having simulated the outcome of today's NBA matchups thousands of times each, our predictive model has generated the best NBA first basket bet for you to make on Thursday.
For full access to our comprehensive analysis and top picks, subscribe to Dimers Pro.
Aaron Gordon To Score First Basket
- Odds: +1100
- Edge: 2.0%
- Probability: 10.3%
- Game: Thunder vs. Nuggets (8:30PM ET)
Our model has identified the best NBA first basket bet for Thursday's NBA slate in the game between the Thunder and Nuggets. The bet is on Aaron Gordon (DEN) at odds of +1100 with FanDuel Sportsbook, with an edge of 2.0% according to our analysis.
Our model not only highlights Gordon for his 2.0% betting edge but also ranks him among the top five most first basket likely scorers for today's Thunder vs. Nuggets matchup, as seen in the earlier list.
Closer Look at Today's First Basket Props
NBA first basket props have become one of the more popular betting options for basketball bettors. By using Thursday's data-driven NBA predictions, you can gain an advantage over everyone else.
For today's full list of NBA prop picks, join Dimers Pro. We give you the tools and information to succeed with hundreds of data-driven bets across thousands of games. Sign up now to join the community!
NBA News, Schedule Alerts and Updated Odds
- Read the latest news alerts from the official NBA feed
- Check updated NBA odds
- Find broadcasting and streaming options for today's NBA games
NBA Schedule for Today [5/15/2025]
- Thunder vs. Nuggets (8:30PM ET, Thursday)
Today's NBA First Basket Picks: May 15, 2025
This NBA first basket article has been partially generated using automated processes and AI technology. Our goal is to provide timely and accurate updates on NBA first basket picks for May 15, 2025. Automation assists in data collection, analysis, and formatting, while human editing and quality control ensure the content meets our editorial guidelines.
All of Dimers' NBA first basket predictions for Thursday, May 15, are based on rigorous data-driven game simulations, providing reliable and accurate NBA predictions to help you make informed decisions.
If you plan to use today's NBA first basket picks for your personal gambling, it's important that you practice responsible gambling and manage your bankroll effectively. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Understanding Betting Edge
The "edge" at Dimers is when we think the probability of an event occurring is more likely than the best odds available. Essentially, it means that Dimers believes a bet has a better chance of winning than the sportsbooks do. That's why the higher the edge, the better.
Although it does not guarantee a win, taking picks with a higher betting edge can increase your chances of being profitable in the long run. This is an essential aspect of a successful sports betting strategy.
More About NBA
This article is part of our NBA player props and NBA best bets series.
For more NBA betting content, we have NBA trends for every game, as well as daily NBA betting news and the latest NBA title odds and predictions.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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