NBA First Basket Predictions for Sunday Include Donovan Mitchell, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander [5/11/2025]

This Sunday, May 11th, it's time for an action-packed day of NBA action, headlined by the Thunder's matchup against the Nuggets at 3:30PM ET.

After evaluating Sunday's NBA simulations this morning (see Dimers Pro for full access), our team of data analysts have announced their best first basket bet of the day.

Additionally, this article reveals the NBA players our predictive analytics model has identified as having the highest probability of scoring the first basket in their respective matchups on Sunday.

Let's dive into today's NBA first basket news and updates.

NBA Players to Watch Today

Based on the most recent latest NBA Injury Report, Sunday's NBA slate is expected to showcase big names such as Donovan Mitchell, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic, each with a high chance of scoring the first basket when they take to the court.

Who Will Score the First Basket Tonight? [NBA Cheat Sheet for May 11, 2025]

Thanks to simulating Sunday's NBA games 10,000 times each, Dimers has determined the list of players most likely to score the first basket in their respective games.

Player (Team)	First Basket Probability
Donovan Mitchell (Cavaliers)	14.3%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder)	14.3%
Nikola Jokic (Nuggets)	14.0%
Jalen Williams (Thunder)	12.9%
Pascal Siakam (Pacers)	12.1%
Jamal Murray (Nuggets)	11.6%
Aaron Nesmith (Pacers)	10.5%
Darius Garland (Cavaliers)	10.3%
Aaron Gordon (Nuggets)	10.3%
Tyrese Haliburton (Pacers)	9.8%

According to our data-driven analysis, the most likely NBA player to score the first basket across today's games is Donovan Mitchell, with a probability of 14.3%.

Following Mitchell closely, the players with the next highest likelihood of cashing your first basket bets are Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at 14.3% and Nikola Jokic at 14.0%.

Dimers Pro Pick of the Day: NBA First Basket [Sunday, 5/11/2025]

Having simulated the result of today's NBA matchups 10,000 times each, our predictive model has found the best NBA first basket betting pick for Sunday.

For full access to our comprehensive analysis and top picks, subscribe to Dimers Pro.

Aaron Nesmith To Score First Basket

• Odds: +1300
• Edge: 3.4%
• Probability: 10.5%
• Matchup: Cavaliers vs. Pacers (8:00PM ET)

Our model has identified the best NBA first basket bet for today's NBA slate in the game between the Cavaliers and Pacers. The bet is on Aaron Nesmith (IND) at odds of +1300 with FanDuel Sportsbook, with an edge of 3.4% according to our analysis.

Our model not only features Nesmith for him 3.4% betting edge but also ranks him among the top 10 most likely first basket scorers for today, as seen in the above list.

Closer Look at Today's First Basket Props

NBA first basket props have become one of the more popular betting options for basketball bettors. By using Sunday's data-driven NBA predictions, you can gain an advantage over everyone else.

For today's full list of NBA prop picks, join Dimers Pro. We give you the tools and information to succeed with hundreds of data-driven bets across thousands of games. Sign up now to join the community!

NBA News, Schedule Alerts and Updated Odds

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NBA Schedule for Today [5/11/2025]

• Thunder vs. Nuggets (3:30PM ET, Sunday)
• Cavaliers vs. Pacers (8:00PM ET, Sunday)

For more betting guides, check out Sunday's NBA best bets and our NBA player prop picks for Sunday.

Today's NBA First Basket Picks: May 11, 2025

This NBA first basket article has been partially generated using automated processes and AI technology. Our goal is to provide timely and accurate updates on NBA first basket picks for May 11, 2025. Automation assists in data collection, analysis, and formatting, while human editing and quality control ensure the content meets our editorial standards.

All of Dimers' NBA first basket picks and predictions for Sunday, May 11, have been made after rigorous data-driven game simulations, giving you reliable and accurate NBA predictions to help you make informed decisions.

If you plan to use today's NBA first basket predictions for sports betting, it's vital that you practice responsible gambling and manage your bankroll effectively. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.

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Understanding Betting Edge

At Dimers, an "edge" in betting signifies our belief that an event's probability is higher than the best available NBA odds suggest. A higher betting edge indicates a greater likelihood of success. However, it's essential to remember that no bet is guaranteed, and responsible gambling practices are crucial for long-term success.

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This article is part of our NBA player props and NBA best bets series.

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