Home run predictions for Monday include Kyle Schwarber, Mike Trout [8/4/2025]

Our MLB home run predictions for Monday, August 4, 2025, are here—with Kyle Schwarber topping the list based on the latest Dimers Pro simulation data.

Monday's HR projections pull from our proprietary home run predictions, which simulate every MLB matchup 10,000 times to reveal the top slugging candidates today.

Home run predictions for August 4, 2025

Our analysis shows Schwarber leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 22.8% chance to go deep, followed by Shohei Ohtani (22.2%) and Giancarlo Stanton (21.0%).

Mike Trout and Juan Soto are among several other sluggers to crack the top 10. Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR probability for Monday? Join Dimers Pro now.

Monday's home run picks [8/4/2025]

After running 10,000 simulations per matchup and assessing key factors like weather and pitching matchups, Dimers Pro has identified one of the best MLB home run props today.

Michael Busch (Cubs) to hit a home run

• Probability: 15%
• Odds: +950
• Edge: 5.5%
• Game: Reds vs. Cubs (8:05PM ET)
• Pitching matchup: Nick Lodolo

Despite not cracking the top 10 in today's home run predictions, Chicago slugger Michael Busch offers serious value at +950 with Bet365, showing an edge of 5.5%—making him one of the strongest home run bets today.

With Nick Lodolo on the mound for the Reds, factoring in both projection edge and odds, Busch has emerged as the one of the best home run picks today on Monday's slate.

For more expert MLB picks and data-led MLB predictions, join Dimers Pro now. Pro users get full access to a total of 110 home run predictions today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.

MLB schedule for today [Monday, August 4, 2025]

• Astros vs. Marlins (6:40PM ET, Monday)
• Twins vs. Tigers (6:40PM ET, Monday)
• Giants vs. Pirates (6:40PM ET, Monday)
• Orioles vs. Phillies (6:45PM ET, Monday)
• Guardians vs. Mets (7:10PM ET, Monday)
• Royals vs. Red Sox (7:10PM ET, Monday)
• Brewers vs. Braves (7:15PM ET, Monday)
• Reds vs. Cubs (8:05PM ET, Monday)
• Yankees vs. Rangers (8:05PM ET, Monday)
• Blue Jays vs. Rockies (8:40PM ET, Monday)
• Rays vs. Angels (9:38PM ET, Monday)
• Padres vs. D-Backs (9:40PM ET, Monday)

Conclusion

For August 4, 2025, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Kyle Schwarber, Shohei Ohtani and Giancarlo Stanton projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Michael Busch who stands out as the best value bet, offering an appealing 5.5% edge at +950 odds.

These insights are based on 10,000 game simulations and are designed to help you identify smarter betting opportunities. As always, gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know needs support, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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