Home run predictions for Thursday include Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton [9/25/2025]

Our MLB home run predictions for Thursday, September 25, 2025, are in—with Aaron Judge leading the list based on the latest Dimers Pro simulation data.

Thursday's HR projections come from our home run predictions, which simulate every MLB matchup 10,000 times to reveal the most likely home run hitters today.

Home run predictions for September 25, 2025

Player (Team)	HR Projection
Aaron Judge (Yankees)	26.7%
Kyle Schwarber (Phillies)	26.7%
Giancarlo Stanton (Yankees)	24.4%
Junior Caminero (Rays)	🔒
Nick Kurtz (Athletics)	🔒
Shea Langeliers (Athletics)	🔒
Jo Adell (Angels)	🔒
Byron Buxton (Twins)	🔒
Bryce Harper (Phillies)	🔒
Jazz Chisholm (Yankees)	🔒

Our analysis shows Judge leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 26.7% chance to go deep, followed by Kyle Schwarber (26.7%) and Giancarlo Stanton (24.4%).

Junior Caminero and Nick Kurtz are among several other sluggers to rank inside the top 10. Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR prediction for Thursday? Join Dimers Pro now.

Already a Dimers Pro member? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.

Thursday's home run picks [9/25/2025]

After running 10,000 simulations per matchup and assessing key factors like weather and pitching matchups, Dimers Pro has identified one of the best MLB home run props today.

Ketel Marte (D-Backs) to hit a home run

• Probability: 16.4%
• Odds: +675
• Edge: 3.5%
• Game: Dodgers vs. D-Backs (3:40PM ET)
• Pitching matchup: N/A

Despite not cracking the top 10 in today's home run predictions, Arizona slugger Ketel Marte offers standout value at +675 with BetMGM, showing an edge of 3.5%—making him one of the strongest home run bets today.

In a matchup against Dodgers starter N/A, this combination of betting value and power potential makes Marte one of the best home run picks today on Thursday's slate.

For more expert MLB picks and data-backed MLB predictions, join Dimers Pro now. Pro users get full access to a total of 82 home run predictions today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.

MLB schedule for today [Thursday, September 25, 2025]

• Pirates vs. Reds (12:40PM ET, Thursday)
• Rays vs. Orioles (1:05PM ET, Thursday)
• Twins vs. Rangers (2:35PM ET, Thursday)
• Astros vs. Athletics (3:35PM ET, Thursday)
• Dodgers vs. D-Backs (3:40PM ET, Thursday)
• Tigers vs. Guardians (6:40PM ET, Thursday)
• White Sox vs. Yankees (7:05PM ET, Thursday)
• Red Sox vs. Blue Jays (7:07PM ET, Thursday)
• Mets vs. Cubs (7:40PM ET, Thursday)
• Royals vs. Angels (9:38PM ET, Thursday)

Conclusion

For September 25, 2025, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Aaron Judge, Kyle Schwarber and Giancarlo Stanton projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Ketel Marte who stands out as the best value bet, offering a favorable 3.5% edge at +675 odds.

These insights are based on 10,000 game simulations and are designed to help you identify smarter betting opportunities. As always, gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know needs support, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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