Home run predictions for Thursday include Aaron Judge, Cal Raleigh [9/11/2025]

Our MLB home run predictions for Thursday, September 11, 2025, are in—with Aaron Judge topping the list per the latest Dimers Pro simulation data.

Thursday's HR projections come from our home run predictions, which highlight the most likely home run hitters today.

Home run predictions for September 11, 2025

Player (Team)	HR Projection
Aaron Judge (Yankees)	23.4%
Kyle Schwarber (Phillies)	22.8%
Giancarlo Stanton (Yankees)	22.4%
Junior Caminero (Rays)	🔒
Cal Raleigh (Mariners)	🔒
Yordan Alvarez (Astros)	🔒
Jo Adell (Angels)	🔒
Pete Alonso (Mets)	🔒
Eugenio Suarez (Mariners)	🔒
Juan Soto (Mets)	🔒

Our analysis shows Judge leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 23.4% chance to go yard, followed by Kyle Schwarber (22.8%) and Giancarlo Stanton (22.4%).

Junior Caminero and Cal Raleigh are among several other sluggers to crack the top 10. Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR probability for Thursday? Join Dimers Pro now.

Already a Dimers Pro member? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.

Thursday's home run picks [9/11/2025]

After running 10,000 simulations per matchup and assessing key factors like weather and pitching matchups, Dimers Pro has identified one of the best MLB home run props today.

Josh Naylor (Mariners) to hit a home run

• Probability: 14%
• Odds: +810
• Edge: 3.0%
• Game: Angels vs. Mariners (9:40PM ET)
• Pitching matchup: José Soriano

Despite not cracking the top 10 in today's home run predictions, Seattle slugger Josh Naylor offers serious value at +810 with DraftKings Sportsbook, showing an edge of 3.0%—making him one of the strongest home run bets today.

Set to face José Soriano in tonight's Angels-Mariners matchup, this combination of betting value and power potential makes Naylor one of the best home run picks today on Thursday's slate.

For more expert MLB picks and data-led MLB predictions, join Dimers Pro now. Pro users get full access to a total of 46 home run predictions today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.

MLB schedule for today [Thursday, September 11, 2025]

• Pirates vs. Orioles (1:05PM ET, Thursday)
• Rays vs. White Sox (2:10PM ET, Thursday)
• Astros vs. Blue Jays (3:07PM ET, Thursday)
• Nationals vs. Marlins (6:40PM ET, Thursday)
• Royals vs. Guardians (7:15PM ET, Thursday)
• Mets vs. Phillies (7:15PM ET, Thursday)
• Angels vs. Mariners (9:40PM ET, Thursday)
• Rockies vs. Padres (9:40PM ET, Thursday)

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Conclusion

For September 11, 2025, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Aaron Judge, Kyle Schwarber and Giancarlo Stanton projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Josh Naylor who stands out as the best value bet, offering an appealing 3.0% edge at +810 odds.

These insights are based on 10,000 game simulations and are designed to help you identify smarter betting opportunities. As always, gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know needs support, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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