Home run predictions for Thursday include Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton [9/4/2025]

Our MLB home run predictions for Thursday, September 4, 2025, are here—with Aaron Judge leading the list according to the latest Dimers Pro simulation data.

Thursday's HR projections pull from our proprietary home run predictions, built to highlight the top home run picks today.

Home run predictions for September 4, 2025

Player (Team)	HR Projection
Aaron Judge (Yankees)	23.6%
Kyle Schwarber (Phillies)	22.8%
Junior Caminero (Rays)	22.2%
Giancarlo Stanton (Yankees)	🔒
Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers)	🔒
Byron Buxton (Twins)	🔒
Brandon Lowe (Rays)	🔒
Yordan Alvarez (Astros)	🔒
Jo Adell (Angels)	🔒
Mike Trout (Angels)	🔒

Our analysis shows Judge leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 23.6% chance to go yard, followed by Kyle Schwarber (22.8%) and Junior Caminero (22.2%).

Giancarlo Stanton and Shohei Ohtani are among several other sluggers to crack the top 10. Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR prediction for Thursday? Join Dimers Pro now.

Already a Dimers Pro member? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.

Thursday's home run picks [9/4/2025]

After running 10,000 simulations per matchup and assessing key factors like weather and pitching matchups, Dimers Pro has identified one of the best MLB home run props today.

Alexander Canario (Pirates) to hit a home run

• Probability: 12.3%
• Odds: +1050
• Edge: 3.6%
• Game: Dodgers vs. Pirates (6:40PM ET)
• Pitching matchup: Blake Snell

Despite not cracking the top 10 in today's home run predictions, Pittsburgh slugger Alexander Canario offers serious value at +1050 with BetMGM, showing an edge of 3.6%—making him one of the strongest home run bets today.

Set to face Blake Snell in tonight's Dodgers-Pirates matchup, this combination of betting value and power potential makes Canario one of the best home run picks today on Thursday's slate.

For more expert MLB picks and data-led MLB predictions, join Dimers Pro now. Pro users get full access to a total of 27 home run predictions today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.

MLB schedule for today [Thursday, September 4, 2025]

• Phillies vs. Brewers (4:10PM ET, Thursday)
• Dodgers vs. Pirates (6:40PM ET, Thursday)
• Guardians vs. Rays (7:35PM ET, Thursday)
• White Sox vs. Twins (7:40PM ET, Thursday)
• Angels vs. Royals (7:40PM ET, Thursday)

Conclusion

For September 4, 2025, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Aaron Judge, Kyle Schwarber and Junior Caminero projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Alexander Canario who stands out as the best value bet, offering a favorable 3.6% edge at +1050 odds.

These insights are based on 10,000 game simulations and are designed to help you identify smarter betting opportunities. As always, gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know needs support, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

For more coverage, check out today's MLB player props and MLB best bets. Plus, stay updated with the latest MLB news, MLB betting trends updated every 15 minutes, and World Series odds.

Note: This article may include affiliate links. Learn how we review products and services.