Home run predictions for Thursday include Kyle Schwarber, Yordan Alvarez [8/28/2025]

Our MLB home run predictions for Thursday, August 28, 2025, are here—with Kyle Schwarber topping the list according to the latest Dimers Pro simulation data.

Thursday's HR projections pull from our full list of home run predictions, which simulate every MLB matchup 10,000 times to reveal the most likely home run hitters today.

Home run predictions for August 28, 2025

Player (Team)	HR Projection
Kyle Schwarber (Phillies)	24.7%
Aaron Judge (Yankees)	23.9%
Giancarlo Stanton (Yankees)	23.6%
Yordan Alvarez (Astros)	🔒
Pete Alonso (Mets)	🔒
Juan Soto (Mets)	🔒
Ben Rice (Yankees)	🔒
Bryce Harper (Phillies)	🔒
Jazz Chisholm (Yankees)	🔒
Mark Vientos (Mets)	🔒

Our analysis shows Schwarber leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 24.7% chance to go yard, followed by Aaron Judge (23.9%) and Giancarlo Stanton (23.6%).

Yordan Alvarez and Pete Alonso are among several other sluggers to rank inside the top 10. Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR prediction for Thursday? Join Dimers Pro now.

Already a Dimers Pro member? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.

Thursday's home run picks [8/28/2025]

After running 10,000 simulations per matchup and assessing key factors like weather and pitching matchups, Dimers Pro has identified one of the best MLB home run props today.

Michael Busch (Cubs) to hit a home run

• Probability: 14.8%
• Odds: +850
• Edge: 4.2%
• Game: Cubs vs. Giants (3:45PM ET)
• Pitching matchup: Logan Webb

Despite not cracking the top 10 in today's home run predictions, Chicago slugger Michael Busch offers serious value at +850 with DraftKings Sportsbook, showing an edge of 4.2%—making him one of the strongest home run bets today.

Set to face Logan Webb in tonight's Cubs-Giants matchup, factoring in both projection edge and odds, Busch has emerged as the one of the best home run picks today on Thursday's slate.

For more expert MLB picks and data-led MLB predictions, join Dimers Pro now. Pro users get full access to a total of 72 home run predictions today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.

MLB schedule for today [Thursday, August 28, 2025]

• Red Sox vs. Orioles (1:05PM ET, Thursday)
• Rockies vs. Astros (2:10PM ET, Thursday)
• Pirates vs. Cardinals (2:15PM ET, Thursday)
• Cubs vs. Giants (3:45PM ET, Thursday)
• Braves vs. Phillies (6:45PM ET, Thursday)
• Marlins vs. Mets (7:10PM ET, Thursday)
• Yankees vs. White Sox (7:40PM ET, Thursday)

Conclusion

For August 28, 2025, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Kyle Schwarber, Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Michael Busch who stands out as the best value bet, offering an appealing 4.2% edge at +850 odds.

These insights are based on 10,000 game simulations and are designed to help you identify smarter betting opportunities. As always, gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know needs support, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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