Home run predictions for Thursday include Aaron Judge, Shea Langeliers [8/21/2025]

Our MLB home run predictions for Thursday, August 21, 2025, are here—with Aaron Judge topping the list per the latest Dimers Pro simulation data.

Thursday's HR projections come from our home run predictions, which simulate every MLB matchup 10,000 times to reveal the most likely home run hitters today.

Home run predictions for August 21, 2025

Player (Team)	HR Projection
Aaron Judge (Yankees)	23.9%
Junior Caminero (Rays)	20.7%
Pete Alonso (Mets)	20.6%
Shea Langeliers (Athletics)	🔒
Juan Soto (Mets)	🔒
Byron Buxton (Twins)	🔒
Nick Kurtz (Athletics)	🔒
Teoscar Hernandez (Dodgers)	🔒
Brandon Lowe (Rays)	🔒
Hunter Goodman (Rockies)	🔒

Our analysis shows Judge leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 23.9% chance to go yard, followed by Junior Caminero (20.7%) and Pete Alonso (20.6%).

Shea Langeliers and Juan Soto are among several other sluggers to crack the top 10. Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR prediction for Thursday? Join Dimers Pro now.

Already a Dimers Pro member? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.

Thursday's home run picks [8/21/2025]

After running 10,000 simulations per matchup and evaluating key factors like weather and pitching matchups, Dimers Pro has identified one of the best MLB home run props today.

Alex Jackson (Orioles) to hit a home run

• Probability: 13.4%
• Odds: +1100
• Edge: 5.1%
• Game: Astros vs. Orioles (7:15PM ET)
• Pitching matchup: Jason Alexander

Despite not cracking the top 10 in today's home run predictions, Baltimore slugger Alex Jackson offers serious value at +1100 with BetMGM, showing an edge of 5.1%—making him one of the strongest home run bets today.

With Jason Alexander on the mound for the Astros, factoring in both projection edge and odds, Jackson has emerged as the one of the best home run picks today on Thursday's slate.

For more expert MLB picks and data-backed MLB predictions, join Dimers Pro now. Pro users get full access to a total of 79 home run predictions today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.

MLB schedule for today [Thursday, August 21, 2025]

• Athletics vs. Twins (1:10PM ET, Thursday)
• Rangers vs. Royals (2:10PM ET, Thursday)
• Brewers vs. Cubs (2:20PM ET, Thursday)
• Mets vs. Nationals (4:05PM ET, Thursday)
• Giants vs. Padres (4:10PM ET, Thursday)
• Astros vs. Orioles (7:15PM ET, Thursday)
• Red Sox vs. Yankees (7:15PM ET, Thursday)
• Cardinals vs. Rays (7:35PM ET, Thursday)

Conclusion

For August 21, 2025, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Aaron Judge, Junior Caminero and Pete Alonso projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Alex Jackson who stands out as the best value bet, offering a favorable 5.1% edge at +1100 odds.

These insights are based on 10,000 game simulations and are designed to help you identify smarter betting opportunities. As always, gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know needs support, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

For more coverage, check out today's MLB player props and MLB best bets. Plus, stay updated with the latest MLB news, MLB betting trends updated every 15 minutes, and World Series odds.

Note: This article may include affiliate links. Learn how we review products and services.