Home run predictions for Saturday include Aaron Judge, Kyle Schwarber [8/23/2025]

Our MLB home run predictions for Saturday, August 23, 2025, are here—with Aaron Judge leading the list per the latest Dimers Pro simulation data.

Saturday's HR projections come straight from our home run predictions, which simulate every MLB matchup 10,000 times to reveal the top slugging candidates today.

Home run predictions for August 23, 2025

Player (Team)	HR Projection
Aaron Judge (Yankees)	25.2%
Kyle Schwarber (Phillies)	23.2%
Giancarlo Stanton (Yankees)	22.0%
Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers)	🔒
Cal Raleigh (Mariners)	🔒
Byron Buxton (Twins)	🔒
Pete Alonso (Mets)	🔒
Shea Langeliers (Athletics)	🔒
Jo Adell (Angels)	🔒
Juan Soto (Mets)	🔒

Our analysis shows Judge leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 25.2% chance to go deep, followed by Kyle Schwarber (23.2%) and Giancarlo Stanton (22.0%).

Shohei Ohtani and Cal Raleigh are among several other sluggers to crack the top 10. Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR probability for Saturday? Join Dimers Pro now.

Already a Dimers Pro member? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.

Saturday's home run picks [8/23/2025]

After running 10,000 simulations per matchup and assessing key factors like weather and pitching matchups, Dimers Pro has identified one of the best MLB home run props today.

Jazz Chisholm Jr. (Yankees) to hit a home run

• Probability: 17.2%
• Odds: +850
• Edge: 6.7%
• Game: Red Sox vs. Yankees (1:05PM ET)
• Pitching matchup: Garrett Crochet

Despite not cracking the top 10 in today's home run predictions, New York slugger Jazz Chisholm Jr. offers standout value at +850 with BetMGM, showing an edge of 6.7%—making him one of the strongest home run bets today.

With Garrett Crochet on the mound for the Red Sox, factoring in both projection edge and odds, Jr. has emerged as the one of the best home run picks today on Saturday's slate.

For more expert MLB picks and data-driven MLB predictions, join Dimers Pro now. Pro users get full access to a total of 89 home run predictions today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.

MLB schedule for today [Saturday, August 23, 2025]

• Red Sox vs. Yankees (1:05PM ET, Saturday)
• Blue Jays vs. Marlins (4:10PM ET, Saturday)
• Royals vs. Tigers (6:10PM ET, Saturday)
• Rockies vs. Pirates (6:40PM ET, Saturday)
• Giants vs. Brewers (7:10PM ET, Saturday)
• Mets vs. Braves (7:15PM ET, Saturday)
• Reds vs. D-Backs (8:10PM ET, Saturday)
• Dodgers vs. Padres (8:40PM ET, Saturday)
• Athletics vs. Mariners (9:40PM ET, Saturday)

Conclusion

For August 23, 2025, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Aaron Judge, Kyle Schwarber and Giancarlo Stanton projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Jazz Chisholm Jr. who stands out as the best value bet, offering an appealing 6.7% edge at +850 odds.

These insights are based on 10,000 game simulations and are designed to help you identify smarter betting opportunities. As always, gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know needs support, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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