Home run predictions for Friday include Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani [9/5/2025]

Our MLB home run predictions for Friday, September 5, 2025, are in—with Aaron Judge topping the list based on the latest Dimers Pro simulation data.

Friday's HR projections pull from our proprietary home run predictions, which simulate every MLB matchup 10,000 times to reveal the most likely home run hitters today.

Home run predictions for September 5, 2025

Our analysis shows Judge leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 24.7% chance to go yard, followed by Kyle Schwarber (23.9%) and Giancarlo Stanton (22.4%).

Junior Caminero and Shohei Ohtani are among several other sluggers to rank inside the top 10. Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR prediction for Friday? Join Dimers Pro now.

Already a Dimers Pro member? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.

Friday's home run picks [9/5/2025]

After running 10,000 simulations per matchup and assessing key variables like weather and pitching matchups, Dimers Pro has identified one of the best MLB home run props today.

Jac Caglianone (Royals) to hit a home run

• Probability: 14.8%
• Odds: +1000
• Edge: 5.8%
• Game: Twins vs. Royals (7:40PM ET)
• Pitching matchup: Pablo López

Despite not cracking the top 10 in today's home run predictions, Kansas City slugger Jac Caglianone offers standout value at +1000 with DraftKings Sportsbook, showing an edge of 5.8%—making him one of the strongest home run bets today.

Set to face Pablo López in tonight's Twins-Royals matchup, factoring in both projection edge and odds, Caglianone has emerged as the one of the best home run picks today on Friday's slate.

For more expert MLB picks and data-led MLB predictions, join Dimers Pro now. Pro users get full access to a total of 62 home run predictions today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.

MLB schedule for today [Friday, September 5, 2025]

• Mets vs. Reds (6:40PM ET, Friday)
• Brewers vs. Pirates (6:40PM ET, Friday)
• White Sox vs. Tigers (6:40PM ET, Friday)
• Dodgers vs. Orioles (7:05PM ET, Friday)
• Phillies vs. Marlins (7:10PM ET, Friday)
• Mariners vs. Braves (7:15PM ET, Friday)
• Guardians vs. Rays (7:35PM ET, Friday)
• Twins vs. Royals (7:40PM ET, Friday)
• Giants vs. Cardinals (8:15PM ET, Friday)
• Padres vs. Rockies (8:40PM ET, Friday)
• Athletics vs. Angels (9:38PM ET, Friday)
• Red Sox vs. D-Backs (9:40PM ET, Friday)

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Conclusion

For September 5, 2025, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Aaron Judge, Kyle Schwarber and Giancarlo Stanton projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Jac Caglianone who stands out as the best value bet, offering a favorable 5.8% edge at +1000 odds.

These insights are based on 10,000 game simulations and are designed to help you identify smarter betting opportunities. As always, gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know needs support, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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