Home run predictions for Friday include Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani [8/22/2025]

Our MLB home run predictions for Friday, August 22, 2025, are here—with Aaron Judge leading the list based on the latest Dimers Pro simulation data.

Friday's HR projections come straight from our home run predictions, which simulate every MLB matchup 10,000 times to reveal the most likely home run hitters today.

Home run predictions for August 22, 2025

Our analysis shows Judge leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 24.3% chance to go deep, followed by Kyle Schwarber (23.8%) and Giancarlo Stanton (22.7%).

Shohei Ohtani and Junior Caminero are among several other sluggers to crack the top 10. Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR probability for Friday? Join Dimers Pro now.

Already a Dimers Pro member? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.

Friday's home run picks [8/22/2025]

After running 10,000 simulations per matchup and evaluating key variables like weather and pitching matchups, Dimers Pro has identified one of the best MLB home run props today.

Marcell Ozuna (Braves) to hit a home run

• Probability: 16.6%
• Odds: +650
• Edge: 3.2%
• Game: Mets vs. Braves (7:15PM ET)
• Pitching matchup: Nolan McLean

Despite not cracking the top 10 in today's home run predictions, Atlanta slugger Marcell Ozuna offers serious value at +650 with Bet365, showing an edge of 3.2%—making him one of the strongest home run bets today.

Set to face Nolan McLean in tonight's Mets-Braves matchup, Ozuna shapes up as one of the best home run picks today on Friday's slate.

For more expert MLB picks and data-driven MLB predictions, join Dimers Pro now. Pro users get full access to a total of 66 home run predictions today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.

MLB schedule for today [Friday, August 22, 2025]

• Rockies vs. Pirates (6:40PM ET, Friday)
• Astros vs. Orioles (7:05PM ET, Friday)
• Red Sox vs. Yankees (7:05PM ET, Friday)
• Royals vs. Tigers (7:10PM ET, Friday)
• Mets vs. Braves (7:15PM ET, Friday)
• Cardinals vs. Rays (7:35PM ET, Friday)
• Giants vs. Brewers (8:10PM ET, Friday)
• Reds vs. D-Backs (9:40PM ET, Friday)
• Dodgers vs. Padres (9:40PM ET, Friday)
• Athletics vs. Mariners (10:10PM ET, Friday)

Conclusion

For August 22, 2025, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Aaron Judge, Kyle Schwarber and Giancarlo Stanton projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Marcell Ozuna who stands out as the best value bet, offering an appealing 3.2% edge at +650 odds.

These insights are based on 10,000 game simulations and are designed to help you identify smarter betting opportunities. As always, gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know needs support, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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