MLB AL MVP Award Has a New Favorite After Aaron Judge Injury

The MLB betting race for the American League MVP has taken a dramatic turn, with Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh now emerging as the new AL MVP front-runner on the sportsbooks after New York Yankees slugger Aaron Judge was ruled out of Saturday's game against the Philadelphia Phillies due to an elbow injury.

This shift might be surprising to some considering how good Aaron Judge has been this year, but serves as proof that no matter how strongly a player or team is favored, there is ever-present value for bettors willing to take a chance on a dark horse, like how now-favorite Raleigh was priced earlier this season.

For those who have been monitoring this situation, however, it's not much of a surprise at all.

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How Cal Raleigh Took Over the AL MVP Race

Judge, who has been the overwhelming favorite for much of the season, was confirmed by Yankees manager Aaron Boone to be out with an elbow issue, with imaging results pending. Judge had been struggling to throw in recent days, a concerning sign for a player whose contributions on both offense and defense make him so valuable to a Yankees team now predicted with a near dead-even chance to win the AL East at 40.3% alongside the Blue Jays at 39.3% in the Dimers MLB Futures.

Until now, Judge's .342 batting average (1st in MLB), 37 home runs (T2nd), 85 RBIs (2nd) and 1.160 OPS (1st) had him firmly in control of the MVP conversation, with odds as short as -10000 or more earlier this season.

However, the injury opens the door for Cal Raleigh, who has been having a monumental season for the Mariners. Raleigh, who was initially a long shot, has seen his odds steadily improve throughout the year, thanks to his impressive power that lands him at the top of our best home run props each day.

From opening odds that likely didn't even place him on many radars, he was already at +550 by late June, closing the gap on Judge thanks to a power surge that has him leading MLB in home runs with 39, and an impressive 84 RBIs. By mid-July, his odds had moved to +700 even while Judge was still a massive favorite. Now, with Judge's rest of season status uncertain, Raleigh's odds are now as short as -170 and he sits as thew new favorite over Judge at +130.

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Raleigh's ascent is one of the best stories in baseball, particularly his historic power for a catcher. He's on pace to shatter the single-season home run record for a catcher and is proving his value both offensively and defensively. As far as what it means for the Mariners as a team, the Dimers model projects them with an 18.6% probability to win the AL West as they trail the Astros by 5 games, and a 3.0% probability to win the World Series.

Who Else is in the AL MVP Race?

If it's any consolation to Aaron Judge MVP ticket holders, it's still a two-man race, with everyone else at least 40/1 or longer, according to the odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. Here are the Top 5 players based on betting odds:

Cal Raleigh (Mariners) -170

Aaron Judge (Yankees) +130

Tarik Skubal (Tigers) +4000

Bobby Witt Jr (Royals) +8000

Jose Ramirez (Guardians) +8000

Final Thoughts: It Ain't Over 'Til It's Over

This latest AL MVP development serves as a stark reminder for sports bettors: no favorite is truly safe. As soon as a key player is sidelined, even with a seemingly minor injury, the entire landscape of an award race can shift instantly. While Aaron Judge's talent is undeniable - and he could still return to contention if his injury proves minor and these odds could flip once again - the current uncertainty has created a golden opportunity for those who believed in Raleigh's potential when his odds were much longer. There's always value lurking in the betting markets, waiting for unforeseen circumstances to create a significant payout.

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