Lynx vs. Mercury prediction: Why Phoenix is favored to win Game 4 [2025 WNBA Playoffs]

WNBA Playoffs action continues on Sunday at 8:00PM ET as the Minnesota Lynx take on the Phoenix Mercury at PHX Arena.

Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven WNBA model projects the Mercury as the most likely winner of Game 4.

"Using the most recent data, our experts ran 10,000 simulations of Sunday's Lynx-Mercury game," said Dimers' Chief Content Officer, Nick Slade.

"After accounting for recent updates and other variables, our prediction shows the Mercury with a win probability of 58%, while the Lynx have 42%."

The Mercury, with the likes of Satou Sabally, Kahleah Copper and Alyssa Thomas, are set to take on the Lynx, featuring Kayla McBride, Courtney Williams and Natisha Hiedeman.

For a closer look at Sunday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks, visit our interactive Lynx vs. Mercury predictions page.

Mercury vs. Lynx prediction: Who will win Game 4?

Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Sunday's WNBA matchup between the Lynx and Mercury 10,000 times as part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives the Mercury a 58% chance of defeating the Lynx in Game 4 of the series.

According to our model, the Lynx (+4.5) have a 59% chance of covering the spread, while the 155.5-point over/under has a 62% chance of going over.

Lynx vs. Mercury Game 4 odds

We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Lynx	Mercury
Spread	+4.5 (-110)	-4.5 (-108)
Moneyline	+175	-188
Total	o155.5 (-110)	u155.5 (-108)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Make the most of your sports betting experience by exploring our comprehensive list of US betting apps, and the latest sportsbooks in 2025, ensuring you never miss a top new-user deal.

Lynx vs. Mercury picks and best bets for Game 4

Our model's strongest edge in today's Lynx vs. Mercury matchup is on the spread.

Our expert predictions, matched against the current odds, reveal the best WNBA picks and WNBA best bets for every game throughout the season.

Unlimited access to our full set of picks, including this one, is available via Dimers Pro.

Lynx vs. Mercury Game 4 player props

Looking for Lynx vs. Mercury WNBA prop bets? We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at PHX Arena.

Kayla McBride is expected to lead the Lynx in scoring, while Satou Sabally is projected to be the top scorer for the Mercury.

Dimers Pro users can access a full range of player props and projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and more, for every WNBA game this season.

Lynx vs. Mercury Game 4 updates and essential details

Sunday's Game 4 between the Mercury and Lynx at PHX Arena is scheduled to commence at 8:00PM ET.

• Who: Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury
• Date: Sunday, September 28, 2025
• Time: 8:00PM ET/5:00PM PT
• Venue: PHX Arena

Dimers' comprehensive preview of Sunday's Lynx vs. Mercury matchup includes our prediction, picks and the latest betting odds.

Before making any Lynx vs. Mercury picks, be sure to check out the latest WNBA predictions and betting advice from Dimers Pro.

Conclusion

We predict the Mercury, with a 58% win probability, will likely beat the Lynx on Sunday.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Lynx vs. Mercury insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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