Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Prediction and Odds - Apr 20, 2023

The Toronto Maple Leafs face the Tampa Bay Lightning in the 2023 NHL Playoffs at Scotiabank Arena on Thursday, beginning at 7:00PM ET.

The Stanley Cup Playoffs (aka NHL Playoffs) is an elimination tournament in the NHL to determine the winner of the Stanley Cup.

Sixteen teams, including the Lightning and Maple Leafs, made the NHL Playoffs 2023, which consists of 4 rounds – the First Round, Second Round, Conference Finals and Stanley Cup Finals.

Each round is played as a best-of-seven series, with the first team to 4 wins progressing to the next round until a champion is crowned.

Dimers' best betting picks for Lightning vs. Maple Leafs, plus game predictions, betting odds and touchdown scorer probabilities, are featured below.

Who will win Lightning vs. Maple Leafs?

Using advanced machine learning and data, Dimers.com has simulated Thursday's Lightning-Maple Leafs NHL Playoffs matchup 10,000 times.

Dimers' famous predictive analytics model, DimersBOT, gives the Maple Leafs a 57% chance of defeating the Lightning.

More: Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Simulated 10K Times

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Game Odds

• Puck Line: Maple Leafs -1.5 (+160), Lightning +1.5 (-160)
• Moneyline: Maple Leafs -170, Lightning +170
• Total: Over/Under 6.5 (+102/-124)

Puck Line, Moneyline and Over/Under

The Maple Leafs are -1.5 favorites versus the Lightning, with +160 at DraftKings Sportsbook the best odds currently available.

For the underdog Lightning (+1.5) to cover the puck line, BetMGM has the best odds currently on offer at -160.

PointsBet currently has the best moneyline odds for the Maple Leafs at -170, which means you can risk $170 to win $100, for a total payout of $270, if they get the W.

Meanwhile, DraftKings Sportsbook currently has the best moneyline odds for the Lightning at +170, where you can bet $100 to profit $170, earning a total payout of $270, if they win.

The Over/Under for total goals scored sits at 6.5 with FanDuel Sportsbook, which currently has the best odds for the Over at +102, as well as the best odds for the Under at -124.

As always, check out the sportsbooks you can bet with in your state for the best NHL odds and lines.

According to DimersBOT, the Lightning (+1.5) are a 65% chance of covering the puck line, while the 6.5-goal Over/Under is a 54% chance of going Under.

More: Free Prop Picks

Best Bets for Lightning vs. Maple Leafs

• Puck Line: Lightning +1.5 @ -160 via BetMGM (65% probability)
• Moneyline: Lightning @ +170 via DraftKings Sportsbook (5.9% edge) 🔥
• Total: Under 6.5 @ -124 via FanDuel Sportsbook (54% probability)

Any time you see a 🔥, you know it's one of our best bets today across any sport.

Dimers' best bets are based on detailed simulations and wagering intelligence to help you make more informed investments with the legal sportsbooks in America.

While the Maple Leafs are more likely to win the game, according to DimersBOT, taking the Lightning moneyline is the best option because of the 5.9% edge identified when comparing our data-led probabilities to the sportsbooks' odds currently on offer.

Taking advantage of the edges seen on Dimers.com is one of the keys to being a profitable bettor in the long run.

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Prediction

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Dimers has full coverage of Thursday's Lightning-Maple Leafs matchup, including pregame predictions, top betting picks, and live win probabilities.

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Player Props

Who will score an anytime goal in Lightning vs. Maple Leafs? The data is in.

Featured below are the most likely first goal and most likely anytime goal scorers for both the Lightning and Maple Leafs.

And you know what, we provide this information to you for FREE to help you discover the best prop picks for Thursday's game.

According to DimersBOT, Toronto's Auston Matthews is most likely to score the first goal in Lightning vs. Maple Leafs.

DimersBOT gives Matthews a 12.0% chance of scoring the first goal at Scotiabank Arena, while the Maple Leafs star is a 51.1% chance of netting an anytime goal.

Scroll down for our complete list of first and anytime goal scorer probabilities.

First Goal Scorer Probabilities

Tampa Bay Lightning

• Steven Stamkos: 6.4% probability
• Nikita Kucherov: 6.1% probability
• Brayden Point: 6.0% probability
• Alex Killorn: 3.9% probability
• Victor Hedman: 2.9% probability

Toronto Maple Leafs

• Auston Matthews: 12.0% probability
• Mitchell Marner: 6.7% probability
• William Nylander: 6.6% probability
• John Tavares: 6.3% probability
• Ryan O'Reilly: 4.5% probability

Anytime Goal Scorer Probabilities

Tampa Bay Lightning

• Steven Stamkos: 33.7% probability
• Brayden Point: 33.0% probability
• Nikita Kucherov: 28.4% probability
• Alex Killorn: 21.6% probability
• Brandon Hagel: 17.5% probability

Toronto Maple Leafs

• Auston Matthews: 51.1% probability
• Mitchell Marner: 34.2% probability
• William Nylander: 33.8% probability
• John Tavares: 31.9% probability
• Ryan O'Reilly: 24.3% probability

Don't forget, DimersBOT updates regularly, so refresh this article for any changes to our betting analysis before Lightning vs. Maple Leafs on Thursday April 20, 2023.

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs 2023 Game Info

Thursday's action between the Maple Leafs and Lightning in the NHL Playoffs is scheduled to commence at 7:00PM ET.

• Who: Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
• Date: Thursday April 20, 2023
• Time: 7:00PM ET / 4:00PM PT
• Venue: Scotiabank Arena

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What NHL games are on today?

Now you've got the 411 on Lightning vs. Maple Leafs, get the latest betting analysis for all upcoming NHL games thanks to Dimers' NHL picks and predictions page, where you can find probabilities and odds, and our best bets for each and every NHL matchup.

Want a pick for the Puck Line? You got it. How about the Over/Under? Yup, got that too. The Moneyline? Yes sir. And these picks are good, I mean REALLY good!

As well as NHL game picks and predicitons, Dimers also provides the best NHL prop bets for today, with our projections for first and anytime goal scorers and more lined up against the sportsbook odds every single day of the NHL season.