Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Prediction and Odds - Apr 18, 2023

NHL action continues on Tuesday at 7:30PM ET as the Tampa Bay Lightning take on the Toronto Maple Leafs in the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Scotiabank Arena.

The Stanley Cup Playoffs (aka NHL Playoffs) is an elimination tournament in the National Hockey League to determine the winner of the Stanley Cup.

Sixteen teams, including the Lightning and Maple Leafs, reached the NHL Playoffs 2023, which consists of 4 rounds – the First Round, Second Round, Conference Finals and Stanley Cup Finals.

Each round is contested as a best-of-seven series, with the first team to 4 wins advancing to the next round of the competition.

Dimers' free betting picks for Lightning vs. Maple Leafs, as well as game predictions, betting odds and projected player stats, are featured in this article.

Who will win Lightning vs. Maple Leafs?

Using cutting-edge machine learning and data, Dimers.com has simulated Tuesday's Lightning-Maple Leafs NHL Playoffs matchup 10,000 times.

Dimers' popular predictive analytics model, DimersBOT, gives the Maple Leafs a 57% chance of defeating the Lightning.

More: Free Betting Guide for Lightning vs. Maple Leafs

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Current Odds

• Puck Line: Maple Leafs -1.5 (+170), Lightning +1.5 (-188)
• Moneyline: Maple Leafs -155, Lightning +135
• Total: Over/Under 6 (+100/-120)

Puck Line, Moneyline and Over/Under

The Maple Leafs are -1.5 favorites versus the Lightning, with +170 at DraftKings Sportsbook the best odds currently available.

For the underdog Lightning (+1.5) to cover the puck line, FanDuel Sportsbook has the best odds currently on offer at -188.

DraftKings Sportsbook currently has the best moneyline odds for the Maple Leafs at -155, which means you can risk $155 to win $100, for a total payout of $255, if they get the W.

Meanwhile, BetMGM currently has the best moneyline odds for the Lightning at +135, where you can put down $100 to profit $135, earning a total payout of $235, if they win.

The Over/Under sits at 6 with BetMGM, which currently has the best odds for the Over at +100, as well as the best odds for the Under at -120.

As always, check out all of the sportsbooks that are available in your state for the best NHL odds and lines.

According to DimersBOT, the Lightning (+1.5) are a 64% chance of covering the puck line, while the Over/Under total of 6 goals is a 51% chance of going Over.

More: Best Prop Bets Today

Best Bets for Lightning vs. Maple Leafs

• Puck Line: Maple Leafs -1.5 @ +170 via DraftKings Sportsbook
• Moneyline: Lightning @ +135 via BetMGM (0.1% edge)
• Total: Over 6 @ +100 via BetMGM (51% probability)

Dimers' best bets are based on world-class modeling and wagering intelligence to help you make smarter decisions with your state's legal sportsbooks.

Although the Lightning are more likely to cover the puck line, our best bet of Maple Leafs -1.5 is based on the chance of that happening, according to DimersBOT, and the best odds available.

And while the Maple Leafs are more likely to win the game, according to DimersBOT, betting on the Lightning moneyline is the best option due to the edge identified when comparing our data-led probabilities to the sportsbooks' odds currently on offer.

Taking advantage of the edges seen here at Dimers.com is pivotal to achieving long-term profitability as a bettor.

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Prediction

Click or tap on See Matchup to reveal more.

Dimers has full coverage of Tuesday's Lightning-Maple Leafs matchup, including pregame predictions, best betting picks, and live win probabilities.

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Player Props

Who will score an anytime goal in Lightning vs. Maple Leafs? The latest data is in.

Listed below are the most likely first goal and most likely anytime goal scorers for both the Lightning and Maple Leafs.

And you know what, we provide this information to you for FREE to help you choose the best prop picks for Tuesday's game.

According to DimersBOT, Toronto's Auston Matthews is most likely to score the first goal in Lightning vs. Maple Leafs.

DimersBOT gives Matthews a 10.2% chance of scoring the first goal at Scotiabank Arena, while the Maple Leafs star is a 47.0% chance of netting an anytime goal.

Scroll down for our full list of first and anytime goal scorer probabilities.

First Goal Scorer Probabilities

Tampa Bay Lightning

• Steven Stamkos: 7.6% probability
• Brayden Point: 6.8% probability
• Nikita Kucherov: 6.3% probability
• Alex Killorn: 4.5% probability
• Brandon Hagel: 3.7% probability

Toronto Maple Leafs

• Auston Matthews: 10.2% probability
• Mitchell Marner: 6.5% probability
• John Tavares: 5.7% probability
• William Nylander: 5.7% probability
• Michael Bunting: 4.4% probability

Anytime Goal Scorer Probabilities

Tampa Bay Lightning

• Steven Stamkos: 36.3% probability
• Brayden Point: 35.3% probability
• Nikita Kucherov: 32.3% probability
• Alex Killorn: 23.7% probability
• Brandon Hagel: 19.6% probability

Toronto Maple Leafs

• Auston Matthews: 47.0% probability
• Mitchell Marner: 31.0% probability
• William Nylander: 29.4% probability
• John Tavares: 28.3% probability
• Michael Bunting: 24.1% probability

Remember, DimersBOT updates often, so keep checking this article for the latest betting analysis ahead of Lightning vs. Maple Leafs on Tuesday April 18, 2023.

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs 2023 Game Info

Tuesday's game between the Maple Leafs and Lightning in the Stanley Cup Playoffs is scheduled to begin at 7:30PM ET.

• Who: Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
• Date: Tuesday April 18, 2023
• Time: 7:30PM ET / 4:30PM PT
• Venue: Scotiabank Arena

Want to join an online sportsbook and start betting on the NHL Playoffs? Check out the top sportsbook sign-up offers in your state.

Want more NHL previews like this?

To get more NHL betting predictions like you've just read for Lightning vs. Maple Leafs, all you've gotta do is visit Dimers' NHL Betting News section. It's that easy – they're all there!

We use the power of predictive analytics to find value in the markets so we can write the most comprehensive NHL betting previews available. We do this by comparing our own probabilities against the sportsbooks' odds (aka Vegas odds) the minute they go live.

So, get ahead of the game and beat the bookies today – it's only a click away.

As well as NHL game picks and predicitons, Dimers also provides the best NHL prop bets for today, with our projections for first and anytime goal scorers and more lined up against the sportsbook odds every single day of the NHL season.