How to Bet on Week 1 of the NFL Season

The first week of the NFL season can be a daunting hill to climb for even the most experienced bettors.

Hot narratives, new coaches, players on new teams, preseason expectations that don't go as planned (you fantasy players know this all too well) - it's a collision course of countless factors and our job is to cut through the noise and bet smartly to beat the sportsbooks.

Betting on the NFL becomes second nature when you have Dimers Pro in your pocket - from our weekly Best NFL Bets and NFL Props, brand-new Player Projections Hub (launching soon!), Super Bowl Futures and NFL Game Predictions, there's no shortage of resources available with Dimers Pro, now 50% for an NFL season pass with our exclusive FOOTBALL promo code.

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To help set you up for the first week of the NFL season, we're touching on how to bet the major storylines, looking at our best value bets and which matchups offer strong plays for your Survivor and Pick 'Em contests.

Week 1's Biggest NFL Storylines

Aaron Rodgers Returns to MetLife

For possible one more time, Aaron Rodgers rides again, as he debuts for the third team of his career, the one he beat in his lone Super Bowl appearance in 2011. And as fate would have it, he'll return to the scene where his previous stint effectively ended before it began, MetLife Stadium to face the Jets.

Maybe it's the hype he had around joining the Jets or the drama or the recency, but Rodgers facing the Jets as a Steeler has more weight to it than him facing the Packers where he spent nearly his whole career. These are the storylines the NFL lives for.

As these two franchises in transition meet on the field in Week 1, it's Rodgers' new squad predicted to prevail according to the Dimers model. Pittsburgh draws a 61.3% probability to win and a hefty 56.5% to cover, the highest of the week and you'll find this game right at the top of our Best Week 1 NFL Bets.

Be sure to check our full Steelers vs. Jets preview closer to the start of Week 1 for our TD predictions, player projections and more.

Rookie Rollout

Without a doubt the most exciting part of Week 1 every year is watching the top rookies in their NFL debuts.

If you play fantasy, there's a good chance you're banking on a breakout performance from one of this year's top picks and would like to see it get underway quickly.

From QB Cam Ward on the Titans, Heisman Trophy winner and two-way standout WR/CB Travis Hunter to RB Ashton Jeanty and the defensive class led by Abdul Carter, Week 1 is brimming with rookie talent.

Ward gets thrown right into the fire vs. the Broncos on the road, who are our top moneyline probability this week at 78%. We give a slight edge to the Titans to cover the 8-point spread at 54.2%, but it's no easy matchup for Ward's first action. His defensive counterpart, Carter, sees a similar battle when the Giants play the Commanders, who we give a 54.35 probability to cover -6 in Week 1.

Hunter will showcase his talent in a game the Jaguars are favored over another big cat and neighbor to the north, the Panthers. How much Hunter plays on either side of the ball is TBD, but look for him to make some impact plays early as they draw a 58.2% win probability over Carolina.

Note: Player projections for these and all players will be available closer to NFL kickoff. We'll update in here with our first projections of the year for these rookies once live!

Disaster in Dallas

Update 8/30/25: After the blockbuster Micah Parsons trade, our model has updated its NFC East and Cowboys vs. Eagles predictions.

It's been the entire story of the offseason for Dallas, who once again enter the year with massive question marks at a key position due to the ineptitude of the front office.

But unlike last year where it was the RB position in question, it's a much more important one this time around as they are embroiled in a contract dilemma with star pass-rusher Micah Parsons. It's not set them up well for the season - they project with just a 13.0% probability of winning the competitive NFC East - their lowest projected chance by the Dimers model in years.

After entering camp without a new contract, Parsons openly demanded a trade from the Cowboys and has distanced himself from the team on social media in the wake of Jerry Jones' in ability to not say every single thing he is thinking. Whether or not they reach a deal, the damage may be done for the Cowboys, particularly in the early season.

Even if they reach a deal, Parsons will enter the season without having ramped up in camp and preseason. If they don't, expect the culture to worsen and perhaps watch as things get ugly.

What's this mean for Week 1? The Eagles get a 71% probability to beat the Cowboys, the third-highest of the week, making them a strong parlay piece for any moneyline wagers.

MORE: Dimers Staff make Super Bowl LX picks, Bold Predictions for 2025 NFL season

Week 1 Best Bets

If you've been following Dimers for some time now, then you might have already caught some of our very early Week 1 NFL Bets. One of those is still available, but since then, a bunch more plays have opened up, including these two.

Bet: Steelers ML vs. Jets (-143 BetRivers)

As mentioned above, the Steelers are our one of our most likely teams to win in Week 1 but beyond that, they come with value. Our probability implies odd of -160 giving us a 2.4% edge, while the books' odds suggest just a 58.9% chance.

Bet: Vikings -1.5 vs. Bears (-110 Caesars Sportsbook)

While the Steelers have our highest overall probability in Week 1, it's the Vikings with our best overall edge - where our model says the books' price is wrong. They're rolling out (technical) rookie JJ McCarthy in a divisional game vs. the Bears who start a new era with Ben Johnson at HC. Our projected final score of this games sees the Vikings win by a score of 23-20.

Week 1 Survivor Targets and Pick 'Em Plays

Finally, we'll close out our guide to Week 1 with a couple looks at which teams could make strong picks for your Survivor or Pick 'em leagues.

You'll need to deploy your own season-long strategy when making survivor picks, but this should give you some insight into Week 1.

To find these predictions for every game, every week, use our NFL Picks page.

Most likely ML Winners (Survivor targets)

• Broncos 78% vs. Titans
• Commanders 74% vs. Giants
• Eagles 71% vs. Cowboys
• Cardinals 70% vs. Saints
• Editor's pick: Cardinals - get these guys out of the way in a game they should win against a Saints team in a rebuild.

Highest Spread Probabilities (Pick 'Em targets)

• Vikings -1.5 vs. Bears (59.9%)
• Cowboys +7 vs. Eagles (59.7%)
• Panthers +3 vs. Jaguars (58.2%)
• Chargers +3.5 vs. Chiefs (56.5%)
• Editor's pick: Give me the Chargers in a divisional game vs. a Chiefs team on the rebound.

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Dimers' 2025 NFL Season Betting Resources

• NFL Predictions: Our data-backed previews for every game, every day
• NFL Best Bets: Our Top Picks for every individual matchup
• Best NFL Props: Player edges and projections from our predictive analytics model
• NFL Futures Odds: Who will win Super Bowl LX?
• NFL Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the league

Responsible Gambling

Remember to please gamble responsibly. If you sense that you're taking your luck too far, know when to call it quits and don't be afraid to seek assistance. Keep in mind that gambling is all about having a fantastic experience! If you or someone you know is grappling with gambling issues, reach out to 1-800-GAMBLER for crisis counseling and support.