How Does Terry McLaurin's Trade Request Affect Washington Commanders Season Outlook?

For a franchise that's been through the ringer more times than not, wide receiver Terry McLaurin has been the heart and soul of the Washington Commanders for the better part of six seasons - a pillar of on-field consistency and off-field leadership through years of organizational turmoil and quarterback instability.

Now, just one offseason removed from the Commanders' best season in memory, McLaurin is breaking the hearts of fans having requested a trade — and the ripple effect could shake up the Commanders' 2025 season which is already a pivotal one for the franchise if Dimers' preseason NFL predictions have anything to say about it.

Why the Commanders Can't Afford to Lose McLaurin

The timing of McLaurin's trade request couldn’t be worse for Washington. As the franchise seemed to turn the corner with eventual Offensive Rookie of the Year Jayden Daniels and new head coach Dan Quinn, McLaurin delivered his most productive season yet in 2024 — 82 catches, 1,096 yards, and a career-high 13 touchdowns - he had 25 through his first five seasons. His presence equally elevated Daniels, who posted a Total QBR of 73.8 with McLaurin on the field, compared to 63.0 without him.

McLaurin wasn’t just padding his own stats — he was a security blanket and route technician for the young quarterback. The chemistry they built in just one season was foundational to Washington's NFC Championship run and what seemed to be the dawn of new day.

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At just 26.6% to win the NFC East already, their most likely path to the postseason is via a Wild Card spot, further limiting their playoff upside. Their already low 7.1% probability to win the Super Bowl would only drop even further.

Already Bursting the Playoff Bubble?

The Commanders were already on the playoff bubble entering 2025 based on the pre-training camp DimersBOT predictions. According to those simulations, they have just a 48.5% chance to make the playoffs — essentially a coin flip. Yet, sportsbooks like DraftKings still list them at -160 to make the playoffs, mispricing the reality of their situation, which we wrote more about in our Make/Miss Playoffs NFL preview.

For bettors who believe McLaurin is as good as gone — or even just missing games during an extended hold-in — the value on taking the Commanders to miss the playoffs is clear: If McLaurin leaves or holds out into the season, this number will drop fast.

The Deebo Factor Isn’t Enough

While the offseason addition of Deebo Samuel adds another weapon, it doesn’t replace what McLaurin brings. Samuel thrives on designed touches and YAC opportunities — he’s a gadget player, not a WR1 and elite route-runner. McLaurin, on the other hand, is the type of receiver who creates separation on his own and wins tough third downs. 

Expecting Samuel to fill McLaurin’s shoes is not reality. At best, he complements him. But if McLaurin leaves? The offense loses its most reliable weapon — and Jayden Daniels loses his favorite target.

If McLaurin Is in a Trade, the Commanders You Must Fade

All the pressure is on Washington and it's not the kind of pressure you want a franchise on the upswing to be dealing with. For them, it's either extend McLaurin or trade him immediately to salvage team chemistry before the season opener. Letting this linger could sour the locker room and derail a promising young quarterback’s momentum.

Meanwhile, savvy bettors have a chance to lock in some sweet value if they're backing the Dimers data in pivotal offseason moment.

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