4 Smart Golf Props to Maximise 3M Open Value Based on Nationality

The 2025 3M Open is here with plenty of golf betting opportunities for savvy Dimers users to cash in—especially in one of the most overlooked golf betting markets: Nationality Props.

At Dimers, we've crunched the numbers using our predictive analytics and simulation models to uncover the biggest value gaps in the Nationality Props market. Rather than sweating out outright winner bets across four full rounds, Nationality Props let you focus on how golfers stack up within their countrymen, giving you a potential edge in a smaller group of golfers where public bettors might not be looking.

This week, we're targeting Nationality Props with the largest gap between the top two projected finishers in each category—based on our Dimers Pro Golf simulations—so you can isolate soft spots in the market and pounce.

While most golf betting attention usually goes toward the outright winner, Top 5, Top 10, and Top 20 markets, Nationality Props present a unique and often more predictable angle. With fewer players in each group and clearer data-driven edges, they're an ideal play for sharp bettors.

We'll be referencing DraftKings Sportsbook for these bets, as they currently offer the best odds on Nationality Props for the 3M Open across all sportsbook apps. However, you can unlock even more value using the bet365 bonus code “DIMERS”, which delivers $150 in bonus bets after your first $5 wager—perfect for your 3M Open betting card.

Whether you’re going all-in on the Nationality markets or stacking them into a parlay or Round Robin, Dimers’ simulation-driven edge gives you the tools to outsmart the books this weekend at the 2025 3M Open.

What is the 2025 3M Open Course and Layout?

The PGA TOUR heads back to Blaine, Minnesota this week for the 2025 3M Open, where TPC Twin Cities once again hosts a crucial stop on the late-season schedule. With just two events remaining before the FedExCup Playoffs, the pressure is on for those outside the top 70 to make a final push toward postseason qualification.

Since joining the TOUR in 2019, TPC Twin Cities has offered a scorable but demanding test, emphasizing precision over brute strength. The 7,431-yard, par-71 layout is straightforward in design, but with water in play on 15 of 18 holes, there's little room for error. Players who thrive here are those who keep the ball in play, hit greens in regulation, and roll it confidently on the large, 6,500-square-foot bentgrass putting surfaces. With wide fairways and manageable rough, it's a setup that encourages aggressive driving and rewards hot putters.

Familiarity also matters. Every winner here since 2020 had prior experience at TPC Twin Cities, highlighting the edge that course knowledge provides. With the FedExCup Playoffs fast approaching, expect a dramatic week as contenders take bold swings to secure their place in the postseason chase.

Four Nationality Props to Back at the 3M Open

Before we dig in to our four props, let's cover some basics.

We're analyzing the biggest gaps between the highest projected golfer in each region vs. the next, using our probabilities for each to finish in the Top 20 as a baseline and our Top 5 probability as a measure of upside.

We'll also use our Head-to-Head matchup simulator to see how strong each favored golfer is backed by our model over their closest projected competition. Remember, to cash these bets, each golfer needs to beat all the members in their group.

1. Top Canadian: Taylor Pendrith (+140)

Closest Opponent: Mackenzie Hughes

Rest of Field: Adam Svensson, Adam Hadwin, Ben Silverman

First up is Taylor Pendrith, our top projected Canadian at the 3M Open, as well as one of our top overall finishers.

Pendrith is our fifth-most likely winner of this tournament and gets a 39.5% probability to finish Top 20, and a respectable 24.7% chance for his fifth Top 10 of the year.

Meanwhile, his closest competition in our predictions is Mackenzie Hughes, outside our Top 50. Hughes draws a mere 15.3% probability to finish Top 20, and is less likely to get a Top 10 than Pendrith is to get a Top 5.

While they sport similar putting metrics, Pendrith bests Hughes in SG: Total, Off the Tee and on Approach and draws a 64.4% probability to bear Hughes straight up.

2. Top Oceania: Adam Scott (+125)

Closest Opponent: Cameron Davis

Rest of Field: Karl Vilips, Harrison Endycott, Aaaron Baddeley, Thomas Campbell

Next up, we're looking at the far corner of the world as we analyze the largest of these groups we're looking at, Oceania.

This includes primarily Australia and New Zealand, as well as as accompanying islands, and we'll be backing Adam Scott, one of our best bets to win the 3M Open, to lead the way in his group.

On paper, this one isn't even close. Scott is projected with a whopping 71.8% probability to beat Davis head-to-head, with a better chance to finish Top 5 (13.5%) than Davis has for even a Top 20 (6.6%).

Not surprising considering Scott gets a nice edge from our model to win the 3M Open this week and he best Davis with a better Strokes Gained rank in every single key category.

Neither has stunned the world on TOUR this year, but Scott has three top 20s in his past six events, while Davis has been cut or outside the Top 50 in his past six.

3. Top Korean: Si Woo Kim (+170)

Closest Opponent: Sungjae Im

Rest of Field: Byeong Hun An, Tom Kim

Now, you could also back Sungjae Im as the Top Asian for better odds of +400 - he's our leader either way - but you'll be facing not only a bigger field, but a closer opponent in Kevin Yu, who projects just 4% behind Kim in Top 20 probabilities.

Focusing on the smaller field with just four opponents, Kim has a much bigger edge. He has a 35.5% Top 20 probability compared to 21.6% for Im and nearly doubles him up for a Top 10 finish.

While it's been a mixed bag of a year for Kim, he's got a pair of Top 10s and seven Top 20s. Im has had his share of strong finishes, with three Top 10s this year, but hasn't had a Top 20 in six events - outside the Top 50 or cut in all of them.

Kim draws the advantage on Approach, a major factor here, while Im is bottom of the field in this key metric, with his only notable advantage on the greens.

4. Top French: Victor Perez (+130)

Closest Opponent: Antoine Rozner

Rest of Field: Matthieu Pavon

We'll wrap up with the smallest of the group, the three-man field from France, led by Victor Perez, another of our value picks to win this weekend.

Perez is a longshot in this tournament, so this is as close as the matchups get in this deep dive, but there's still a notable gap between him and Antoine Rozner.

At 23.7% to finish Top 20 and 12.3% to finish Top, Perez gets both the upside and the safer floor based on the DimersBOT projections - even his chance to win is a full percent higher than Rozner who is under 1.0%.

At 54.0% head-to-head, it's the closest matchup as mentioned, but if you consider the 6.2% of a tie, you're looking at over 60% to win of at least a push, provided Matthieu Pavon (5.7% Top 20) doesn't surprise.

Aside form Approach where they're effectively dead even, Perez beats out Rozner in every Strokes Gained category, especially putting.

Parlay All Four Picks as a +3253 PGA Parlay

If you're looking for a big-time payout, play all four of these region winners in a single parlay or consider a Round Robin by 3s to potentially rack up some big profits this weekend.

Dimers' Expert Golf Picks and Predictions for 2025 PGA TOUR

As well as being your best source for PGA golf predictions, Dimers also has the latest golf news, golf predictions for every game, weekly golf rankings, and golf matchup H2H tool.

• PGA Predictions: Our data-backed predictions for every tournament, including The Open and every major.
• Head-to-Head Predictor: Simulate any H2H tournament matchup between golfers
• Dimers' PGA Rankings: Our in-house approach to ranking the World's best golfers
• PGA Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the PGA TOUR

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