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Free Soccer Picks and Predictions – Premier League Week 15
Updated: | First published:
Written by Prospector Sam, Contributor
Prospector Sam is here with your free soccer picks for this weekend's English Premier League soccer action.
Soccer crazy season is here, which is objectively awesome but also a nightmare for me. Having midweek games and a constant stream of matches to watch is obviously not something to complain about, and I’ll gladly avoid my work to spend a couple hours gambling on afternoon games, so it’s hard to feel too bad about things. That said, it isn’t particularly helpful for the writing side of this operation because I have to wait for fixtures to wrap up before I can intelligently write about the next set of games. The burden of being Prospector is a tough one, but somebody has to wear the crown…
No long intro this week because I’m trying to get these picks in before the games start (which would probably be helpful for all of you).
Time to get Tropical! ⤵️
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Newcastle vs. Burnley, Sat Dec 4, 10:00am (ET)
If you’re not so interested in betting this game, I completely understand, but this is what I’m picking and you can’t make me do otherwise. I think there’s A TON of value on BTTS here too, and money won on a crappy game is worth just as much as money won on a good game. While the offensive records of these teams may be a bit concerning, both still average over a goal a game which tells you they have the quality to put balls in the net when presented with legitimate scoring opportunities. And, boy, are they going to be presented with them, because neither of these teams can do anything on the defensive end of the field. Newcastle have given up 30 goals in 14 games and are practically a shoe in to concede, which gives me a lot of confidence that Burnley can score. As for Sean Dyche’s side, they just aren’t as well drilled and organized as they’ve been in years past, and Saint-Maximin will cause them all sorts of issues with his quality. Add in that both teams are starting to feel the pressure of being so low in the table close to the midpoint, and I think you start to see a bit more aggressive play out of both in a game where 3 points is available for either (which won’t be the case in many games they play). I think this bet hits comfortably, and at -144 the odds are decent enough to still make solid money
⛏️ PICK: Both teams to score - YES (-144)
MORE: Newcastle vs. Burnley simulator
Man City vs. Watford, Sat Dec 4, 12:30pm (ET)
Watford have kept exactly 0 clean sheets this season. Sure, we’ve only hit the 14 game mark, but that’s a lot of damn games to not be able to manage a single blank slate with opponents like Norwich and Bunley tossed in. Simply put, Watford are weak in back and concede the third most goals in the EPL, which is not a good recipe for beating City. As you probably imagine, the ML isn’t all that great here and getting into spreads for soccer is a bit of a dangerous game, so I’ll avoid all that and take City TT over 2.5 at -110. We’re getting a standard payout for that bet, which means the books believe there’s about a 50/50 shot at it happening, but I think that probability is much higher. City aren’t going to get shut out (see above), and this offense averages over 2 goals per game, which is enough to give you some hope (well, a lot of hope, actually) against the 17th place team here. City have managed 2+ in each of their last 4 League games as well, with far tougher opponents than Watford in that span. The Citizens are just far too talented all over the pitch for their opponents, and the Hornets, whose crest is inexplicably a moose (there is probably an explanation, I just don’t care to look it up), will more likely give up 3+ to one of the top teams in the world.
⛏️ PICK: Man City team total OVER 2.5 (-110)
MORE: Man City vs. Watford simulator
Aston Villa vs. Leicester, Sun Dec 5, 11:30am (ET)
Leicester are slowly creeping their way back down the table, and their fans should be worried. After the miracle title run and a few good years in the UCL spots, things are slowly starting to unravel as the team ages and it gets harder to bring players into the club. It was probably inevitable, and I doubt they get relegated any time soon, but this simply isn’t the Leicester team we’ve been used to in recent times. Most worrying is their defensive record, which is 4th to last in the league with close to 2 goals conceded per game. That is, to put it kindly, not a very good way to win games. And, as you’ve probably realized by now, we’re gonna take a bit of a flier on Villa to win. Since their new managerial appointment things have gone much better for the Villains, with two wins and a close loss to City (which is basically a win for them). And, with that uptick in form and improved tactical approach, I think Villa has a damn good shot at winning this game at Villa Park. Is it a game I’d go crazy on? Probably not. But at +150 you’re getting a 150% payout if it hits on a home side whose form is far better than their opponents right now. Leicester aren’t going to be able to stay in games so long as this defense continues to take in goals like a stripper takes in dollars, and I think Villa are closer to a coin flip to win this.
⛏️ PICK: Villa moneyline (+145)
MORE: Villa vs. Leicester simulator
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Prospector Sam is a cartoon man that handicaps as well as anyone on the planet. No one knows exactly who The Prospector is, but what is known is how well he does from sports betting.
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