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Free Soccer Picks and Predictions – Premier League Week 13
Updated: | First published:
Written by Prospector Sam, Contributor
Prospector Sam is here with your free soccer picks for this weekend's English Premier League soccer action.
Some weeks, betting on soccer is about as productive and healthy as slamming your head against a brick wall to see if you can make it crack (I’m referring to the wall, but your head is probably more likely to break in that scenario). With the margins so slim, you’re bound to get nailed by close beats and bad bounces that completely flip the outcome of a game, which can be a great thing some days but awful others. Last weekend, it was undoubtedly the latter. Burnley managed to score 3 goals and still not hit our longshot Money Line bet, which was as frustrating as it gets for a team that usually plays disciplined defense, while West Ham failed to score a single goal against Wolves in a turn of events nobody saw coming. Alas, life is unfair and we can’t win everything even if the Gold Diggers deserve absolutely to.
Rather than sit around and pout, though, we’ll make adjustments and move forward. If there’s one thing I’ve learned in gambling it’s that you can never get too high or too low, and when you do that’s when you make mistakes. I may be a silly cartoon who can’t help himself from making jokes in almost any situation, but when it comes to my gambling I’m as cool as a cucumber (still one of the more confusing and unnecessarily erotic phrases out there). With that, we hop back on our gold horse (note to self: commission a gold horse when I get rich so that I can physically do this) to try to grab some more winners.
Picks! ⤵️
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Liverpool vs. Southampton, Sat Nov 27, 10:00am (ET)
I’m not gonna lie to all of you, some weeks the board looks better than others. This week, I found almost no bets that jumped off the page at me as lines or totals that I LOVED, which meant I had to dig deeper to find ones that I felt strongly about. You can look at that as a negative or a positive (meaning I’m stretching or I did extra research to find good bets), but I’m nothing if not honest. And, in line with that intro, I have a bet for this game that I don’t think I’ve ever given out in my time as Prospector Sam. But hey, I also never thought I’d be spending my free time writing articles and pretending to be a cartoon, so I guess this isn’t all that big of a leap. For this game, I’m taking Liverpool to keep a clean sheet. As you can imagine, there really isn’t much value on this money line and Liverpool is expected to handle the match comfortably, which I agree with. While that may be true, there’s actually fairly good odds on this clean sheet at +132 which is surprising to me given the stats for these teams on the year. Liverpool have the third best defensive record in the League, having given up 11 goals in 12 games, and they’ve kept a clean sheet in 7 of those 12 matches. That’s a pretty damn high percentage for shutouts, and they’re up against a Southampton side who are second to last in goals scored (technically tied with a team who shall not be named), ahead of only Norwich. At home, I think Liverpool are, at worst, a coin flip to keep the saints off the board, and +132 is a great value for that play.
⛏️ PICK: Liverpool to keep a clean sheet (+132)
MORE: Liverpool vs. Southampton simulator
Norwich vs. Wolves, Sat Nov 27, 10:00am (ET)
I don’t give a damn that Norwich have had a couple of games of decent form, I’ll take almost any team to beat them in the Premier League at positive odds. The Canaries probably have the worst roster in the EPL, and wins over two bottom half teams in the last two weeks does not change that reality. While Wolves aren’t going to be beating the Bayern Munich’s of the world, they sit in 6th place in the table and manage games well against the lower end teams that they need to beat to finish in their perennial 8-13th range by the end of the season. Even at Carrow Road, I like the Wanderers to win this match and I’ll gladly take them at +110 for a decent payout.
⛏️ PICK: Wolves moneyline (+110)
MORE: Norwich vs. Wolves simulator
Chelsea vs. Man United, Sun Nov 28, 9:00am (ET)
United have crumbled before our very eyes and brought poor Ole to tears after sacking him (unconfirmed, but I bet it’s true considering he still looks like a 9 year old). It’s made for great TV, and I am all for it. This club has had it too good for too long and they’ve mismanaged themselves, from spearheading the Super League to bringing back Ronaldo, all the way to failure. And, after a 4-1 loss to Watford and a change at coach it’s hard to see a lot of reasons for optimism right now up in the Red side of Manchester. Unfortunately, both for them and for me, a date with Chelsea is not very well timed either. Its bad for them because this is not the side you want to be facing in the midst of a catastrophic implosion, and for me because I hate to see Chelsea continue to win. Alas, it is what it is, and we can turn lemons into lemonade by making some money to soothe the pain. Here, I’m going to go a little off the beatin’ path and take Chelsea’s team total. I find it hard to guess what kind of performance you’ll get out of United this weekend and that scares me a bit for the match total, but I know that it’ll take more than a week to fix this horrendous defense and I expect Chelsea will able to score a couple of goals comfortably. At -132 for Chelsea TT over 1.5 the return isn’t massive, but they’re scoring effectively and the Red Devil’s defense can’t keep anyone off the score sheet right now. Chelsea manages at least 2, and I think the value is fantastic at close to standard odds.
⛏️ PICK: Chelsea team total OVER 1.5 (-132)
MORE: Chelsea vs. Man United simulator
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Prospector Sam is a cartoon man that handicaps as well as anyone on the planet. No one knows exactly who The Prospector is, but what is known is how well he does from sports betting.
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