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Free Soccer Picks and Predictions – Premier League Week 12
Updated: | First published:
Written by Prospector Sam, Contributor
Prospector Sam is here with your free soccer picks for this weekend's English soccer action.
Most of the time when the international break comes around, it’s a depressing and unwanted pause from high quality soccer (just watch 90 minutes of any WC Qualifier and you’ll understand). My weekends in the fall consist of (1) waking up (2) drinking coffee while watching and gambing on soccer and (3) drinking alcohol while watching and gambling on football. It’s a flawless system, and losing half of that two-pronged approach leaves me feeling a bit empty inside. You can’t gamble all day if you don’t start in the morning, and I refuse to bet on Russian Ping Pong or whatever other degenerate stuff people mess around with to fill that gap.
This week, though, it wasn’t so bad. For one, I now live in fear of having to watch Tottenham play, because it’s a surefire way to make me depressed and to start a good day on a bad foot. On top of that, I’m basically in sports overload right now with the arrival of college basketball, and it’s almost to the point of overdosing. Don’t get me wrong, I absolutely love it, and I’ll never complain about having all of my favorite sports on at the same time. But trying to keep track of this many games takes a Herculean effort, and anyone who’s seen my cartoon knows that “muscular” isn’t a word many would use to describe me.
But hey, soccer is back and I’ve got no choice but take on the challenge and keep producing the winners and content all of the Gold Diggers can’t live without (humor me and pretend that’s true, please).
MORE: This week's best sportsbook offers
So, without further ado, picks for the EPL Matchweek! ⤵️
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Chelsea vs. Leicester, Sat Nov 20, 7:30am (ET)
It’s a weird reality that Leicester, a club whose Premier League history doesn’t even span a decade, is getting a boost from name alone. But, in all honesty, I can’t really find much else to explain this line. Chelsea are top of the table with a +23 goal difference through 11 games, facing a 12th place side who average just over 1 point per match. If Chelsea were facing Crystal Palace or Southampton, two similarly situated teams, the line on this game would be -200 or worse. But here, we’re getting -135 for Chelsea on the money line which is an absolute gift. As disgusting as it is for me to say, Chelsea are far better than most teams in the EPL and their 4 goals conceded makes it near impossible for a lower level side to produce an upset because they just can’t break down this back line. While Leicester have talent up front with players like Vardy, they don’t have the overall skill or cohesiveness as a team to make things happen in this match. Aside from a bizarre draw to Burnley, the only teams Chelsea have dropped points to on the season are Liverpool and City, and Leicester simply aren’t good enough to expect a different result. -135 isn’t a magical number that’ll make you rich and send your children to college (assuming you degenerates would spend the money responsibly, which is probably a poor assumption), but it’s still damn good value and worth taking a big swing at.
⛏️ PICK: Chelsea at the moneyline (-135)
MORE: Chelsea vs. Leicester simulator
Wolves vs. West Ham, Sat Nov 20, 10:00am (ET)
West Ham matches tend to have a lot of goals. There’s nothing particularly clever or insightful in that statement, but it provides a good roadmap for us to make a bet. The question is, which one? While I flirted with the idea of the Over (and I’m a damn good flirt, this cartoon smile can make women swoon), I’m a little more nervous about it with Wolves’ defensive record considering they only give up about a goal a game. So, rather than take on that total, we’re going to go with Both Teams To Score. In fact, I think it’s a much better value than the over, and here’s why: with BTTS we get the protection of a 1-1 draw, and we only lose the value on one team winning 0-3(+). I don’t think either of these teams is good enough to blow the other out of the water, so if the over were to hit it would be covered by BTTS anyway. And, with the odds only jumping slightly for that over 2.5 bet, I’m happy to walk away from it. West Ham are likely to score at least a goal with their talent and record this year, while Wolves offense has improved dramatically as of late and has managed at least one in five of their last 6 matches. 1-1 or 2-1 feels like a high percentage play here, and I’ll gladly go with BTTS to cover both of those scenarios. The payout isn’t massive, but the value is there.
⛏️ PICK: Both teams to score: YES (-128)
MORE: Wolves vs. West Ham simulator
Burnley vs. Crystal Palace, Sat Nov 20, 10:00am (ET)
Time to get creative. Most of you probably have no interest in watching this game, and I don’t really either. Neither of these clubs are all that good, and you rarely get anything remotely close to exciting or inspired play from Palace or Burnley. But good money is good money, so I’ll sell out and force myself to watch this one because I think there’s a lot of value on the home side to win. While Burnley have had an extremely rough start to the campaign, they’ve only lost one of their last 6 matches and are an experienced Prem side who defend effectively. Palace have also had a strong run of form, but I’m just not buying this team being anywhere near as good as people are claiming at the moment. They’re liable to completely disappear for months at a time and the effort level can be pathetic when they don’t bother to show up. So how is there value? Well, Palace are just as liable to be decent as they are to be terrible, and against a well drilled team who will frustrate them offensively I think there’s a decent shot that Palace may just implode. Burnley’s challenge will be breaking down Palace, but their offense is improving (they’ve tallied at least a goal in each of their last 3 League matches) which gives me confidence they can break down CP. At +190, we’re getting almost a 2:1 payout on a game that I think Burnley have a decent chance of winning, and I’ll take on some heavy risk for that type of payout. Go with the home side to win this game.
⛏️ PICK: Burnley at the moneyline (+190)
MORE: Burnley vs. Crystal Palace simulator
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Prospector Sam is a cartoon man that handicaps as well as anyone on the planet. No one knows exactly who The Prospector is, but what is known is how well he does from sports betting.
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