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Free Soccer Picks and Predictions – Premier League Week 11
Updated: | First published:
Written by Prospector Sam, Contributor
Prospector Sam is here with your free soccer picks for this weekend's English soccer action.
As I write this introduction, Tottenham have just fired their manager and my soccer fandom is about as sad as it’s ever been (which is saying a lot, considering over a decade of rooting for Spurs). To ease that pain, though, things are going much better in this neck of the woods, and we hit two positive-odds bets last week to walk away with a hefty chunk of profit from the Premier League. Ironically (or maybe just appropriately), both of those bets included London rivals performing well which was another small dagger in my heart, but the extra money at least soothed the pain a bit.
As for how things are going in the EPL overall, well, all's “right” with the world. Chelsea, Liverpool and City are top of the table, there are a few chasers who will inevitably tail off and fight for the European spots, and then a whole lot of nothing until you get down to relegation territory, firmly anchored by Newcastle and Norwich. There’s definitely some poetic justice in Newcastle being this awful as their new megarich owners take over the club and turn them into a walking target for human rights activists to shoot at, but that beauty is more for fans of successful clubs to enjoy than it is for me. Oh, and I’m starting a campaign for Norwich to get relegated at the halfway point, because there is clearly no use in having them play any more games than necessary. But enough of the generalities.
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Free Premier League Picks For Week 11, 2021-22
Man United vs. Man City, Sat Nov 6, 8:30am (ET)
Even as United wander along aimlessly trying (and failing) to make it back to their glory years, the Manchester derby still holds a huge amount of weight in the Premier League, and it’s hard not to get excited for this match. These are two of the biggest clubs in the world and you can bet (well, not actually, but still) that more eyes will be on this game over the weekend than any other. Unfortunately, despite the gravity of it, I don’t expect it to be all that interesting of a match. Admittedly, even when these two teams aren’t even in talent level, this fixture has a habit of producing exciting games and odd results. Look no further for that than last season, when United won at City despite the home side running away with the title. But City are the far better unit right now, and the odds on this game are highly skewed by recent results. City are coming off an embarrassing loss to Palace and United are coming off a “big” win over Spurs, which has caused the books to adjust for this game based on those outcomes. But City are still one of the best teams in the world and will bounce back from that performance, while United still have a ton of issues on the defensive side of the ball (I’m not sure about you, but I remember the 7-0 loss to Liverpool all of two weeks ago). City are a far better side, and getting them at -135 is generous odds against a club who were on the verge of firing their manager last weekend based on their early season performances. Take City to end the Ole nightmare and win this game at Old Trafford.
⛏️ PICK: Man City at the moneyline (-135)
MORE: Man Utd vs. Man City simulator
Brighton vs. Newcastle, Sat Nov 6, 1:30pm (ET)
As we enter the endless British winter, one of the common trends to look out for is a little bit less scoring overall. Players will be trying desperately to simply survive an hour in the exposed tundra, and there tends to be a little bit less freedom and creativity in play which leads to less goals. So, obviously, we’re taking the over here! No, silly goose, we’re taking the under. Each of these teams has issues scoring (11 through 10 games), and the biggest factor for this total is how well Brighton perform against a Newcastle defense that are conceding over 2 per game. For all the success the Seagulls have had this year (seriously, pick a new mascot, seagulls are not an animal to emulate), they still have offensive issues and they don’t have the quality to put up a huge total (they haven’t scored more than 2 in any match this season). 1, or maybe 2, for the home side is a comfortable prediction and I don’t think they break loose and mess up the under alone. As for Newcastle, they have very little quality to speak of, and they’re going to be outmatched by a disciplined Brighton side in this game. Since Brighton don’t project to score much, you can expect them to focus heavily on defensive formation and to make stifling Newcastle’s already weak offense their primary goal (see, they’ll have goals, just not the offensive kind). All that suggests a 1-0 game to me, and the under 2.5 leaves a bit of wiggle room for a bad bounce or big mistake. Bet on a low scoring battle here.
⛏️ PICK: Total goals UNDER 2.5 (-110)
MORE: Brighton vs. Newcastle simulator
Everton vs. Tottenham, Sun Oct 31, 9:00am (ET)
With the departure of Nuno, there’s value to be found in betting Tottenham this week because past performance may not reflect how they play this time out. It’s likely that tactics will change dramatically, and we can expect to see a different Spurs side with the arrival of Conte to the club than we did under the short but painful reign of the previous manager. What difference will we see? More offense. Nuno played an extremely conservative brand of soccer that stifled the attack and caused world class players like Son and Kane to look pedestrian, and a change in approach will almost certainly be centered on bringing them back to form. Not only should that help increase their scoring production, it will also open them up a bit more defensively which will create chances for opponents. Everton, meanwhile, are having a pretty horrific year themselves, but they’ve been able to find goals at a decent clip and are being held back by consistent defensive mistakes (which should allow for opportunities on both ends of the field). It’s not a surprise to see where this is going, but the over looks like a very solid bet to me and the value is fantastic at +110. Spurs are destined to break out sooner rather than later, and this number is heavily skewed by their 9 goals in 10 games. One of the keys to finding value is seeing trends before they happen, and I think the trend to come is that we get more goals from Spurs. The odds on these totals will dip in the next month as that happens, and I like the money here a lot for a match that I expect to be a comfortable over.
⛏️ PICK: Total goals OVER 2.5 (+110)
MORE: Everton vs. Tottenham simulator
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Prospector Sam is a cartoon man that handicaps as well as anyone on the planet. No one knows exactly who The Prospector is, but what is known is how well he does from sports betting.
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