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Free Soccer Picks and Predictions – Premier League Week 10
Updated: | First published:
Written by Prospector Sam, Contributor
Prospector Sam is here with your free soccer picks for this weekend's English soccer action.
I’m not gonna say that I’m some saint who deserves a karmic boost in my gambling fortunes, but what in the hell did I do to deserve the events of Saturday morning? As I flipped between my two active bets, the over in Crystal Palace-Newcastle and Wolves DNB, everything was going great. I received a lovely FlashScore notification (maybe sponsor me? Hint Hint) that Crystal Palace had put in a third goal in the 88th minute, and Wolves were comfortably holding on to their lead. What could go wrong? Fucking. Everything. Shortly after VAR comes back with a disallowed goal ruling for a “foul in buildup,” the absolute dumbest VAR review there is (guess what, assholes, you could find a foul in every run of play), and the Leeds get a soft penalty to tie the game. Just a dagger to the heart, and I walk away down money.
I’ll admit, betting soccer is tough, so it’s not the first time this has happened and it won’t be the last. Soccer is certainly the sport I hear most people complaining about in the gambling world, which makes sense given the low scoring nature of the game, and I’m not immune from it’s wrath. One bounce or call can flip an entire bet, and you have to learn to live with it, but I’d be lying if I didn’t say that those 5 minutes crushed my poor cartoon heart a little bit. Oh, and Tottenham sucks, so that’s cool too. On that cheery note, picks!
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Without further ado, picks ⤵️
Prospector Sam's soccer picks are proudly brought to you by BetMGM.
Free Premier League Picks For Week 10, 2021-22
Newcastle vs. Chelsea, Sat Oct 30, 10:00am (ET)
I’ve never watched the Nuremberg trials or done any research on war crimes, but I’m pretty sure what Chelsea did to Norwich last weekend would qualify. Chelsea did their best impression of a Viking hoard rampaging and pillaging some helpless town as they beat Norwich to the tune of 7-0, and it was hard not to feel bad for the Canaries. What does that have to do with this game? Well, it’s difficult to see how things will go much better for Newcastle. The home side have the second worst defensive record in the league, just slightly ahead of aforementioned Norwich, and concede over 2 goals a game on average. Facing this Chelsea team, it wouldn’t shock me if they gave up a pretty hefty number as well (actually, the only thing that would shock me is if they didn’t). And, in line with that assumption, I think we’re getting an absolute steal on Chelsea’s team total. Chelsea average over 2 goals per game on the season and Newcastle, as previously mentioned, concede over that amount on average, which means it’s not all that crazy to expect 3+ from Chelsea. So to get +168 on that team total is some fantastic value, particularly for the form Chelsea are in, and I think it may be one of the more comfortable plus-odds bets I’ve seen in a long time. As long as Chelsea can open up Newcastle before the break this total feels good to me, and I’ll happily take a shot at a high payout here.
⛏️ PICK: Chelsea team total OVER 2.5 (+168)
MORE: Chelsea vs. Newcastle simulator
Tottenham vs. Man Utd, Sat Oct 30, 12:30pm (ET)
Well, where do we begin? I’ve already mentioned the sadness of Spurs (because complaining about them is what I live for, sorry you all have to deal with it), but things may be a bigger disaster up in Manchester. After a 7-0 loss to Liverpool at Old Trafford last weekend things probably couldn’t be going worse unless Golden Boy Christiano Ronaldo walked out on the pitch and literally died, and it’s only a matter of time before Ole gets sacked. Basically, I have no idea how either of these teams will perform here, and anyone who tells you otherwise is a liar. So, in line with that, let’s get weird. I very rarely bet props because it just isn’t my thing, but I think there’s some value in this game so I’m going to take a stab at it. I’m betting “Yes” on whether a penalty is awarded, which comes out around +178 on the boards. My logic? To start, both of these teams have mistake-prone defenses that are playing some sloppy soccer at the moment, and it wouldn’t surprise anyone to see either (or both) put themselves in some problematic situations. On top of that, United are consistently near the top of the League in penalties awarded on a yearly basis, which has a lot to do with a “willingness” to try to win them (i.e. diving). It’s a bit of an odd bet and not one to go crazy with, but a penalty wouldn’t surprise me at all in this one and the payout is high enough to have some fun with it.
⛏️ PICK: Penalty awarded: YES (+178)
MORE: Man Utd vs. Tottenham simulator
Aston Villa vs. West Ham, Sun Oct 31, 12:30pm (ET)
Well, it looks like the flavor of the week is longshot bets, because we’re going for positive odds again. I could give my spiel about betting responsibly and using caution with high risk wagers, but I know none of you would listen to me, so I’ll just skip it. Also, a smarter man would probably mix in some “safer” picks because it’s always nice to boost your W/L record, but that’s not how I operate so here we are. For this game, I like the Hammers on the money line. West Ham have started this season off strong again, and sit in fourth through 9 matches. They won’t be fighting for the Title, but they’ve proven over the last couple of years that they have the talent to finish comfortably in the top half, which means they should beat lower-end clubs. As for Villa, things are less positive. They’re 13th in the table on the back of 3 straight losses, and their defense is getting cut up like one of those meat stacks at a Shwarma shop. West Ham should be able to win this game by riding their offense, and I think it’s closer to a 50% chance they walk away with all 3 points. At +150, the value is great and we get a chance for a strong return on a solid bet.
⛏️ PICK: West Ham at the moneyline (+150)
MORE: Aston Villa vs. West Ham simulator
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Prospector Sam is a cartoon man that handicaps as well as anyone on the planet. No one knows exactly who The Prospector is, but what is known is how well he does from sports betting.
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