Free NFL 2021 Picks and Predictions – Prospector Sam Week 5 Best Bets

Prospector Sam is here with this week's deep dive on NFL Week 5, providing free football picks for the community.

If you ever need proof that the books will always win and the public will always lose, just point to SNF on October 3, 2021. Despite both the quantity of tickets and dollars passing 90% on the Bucs -7 all week, not a single book moved outside that number. Why? They knew, unlike the public, that there was an edge already and the sharps would eat them alive if they went to 7.5. So they never budged, until Sunday, when the line moved the other direction entirely to 6.5 after some sharp money on the Pats. And, to what should be the surprise of nobody, the books made out like the guys in Ocean 11 when the Pats covered, except this time it was Clooney getting fleeced instead of the weird guy banging Julia Roberts.

So what do we take from this? Well, it should be a lesson to all that it matters where the money is and how the lines are moving. You can learn a hell of a lot from looking at the line over time, not just the current number, and understanding what shifts are happening (or aren’t happening) can give you insight into what the books are thinking. Why do you care? Well, I hate to break it to you, but the books are better sports gamblers than you (on average). It’s just a fact. They have all the data and pay for all the statistics and analytics and this is how they make their money. OF COURSE they’re going to be tough to beat. And that leads to the biggest lesson of all; pick your spots. Not every line has value, and sometimes you’re better off just walking away if the value isn’t there (which I did, as I comfortably won the under, like a goddamn genius). Gambling may take luck, but there’s a healthy dose of skill involved too and you have to take advantage of all the information you can get.

But, now that so many have given money to the books, it’s time to win it back. Let’s get after it on a Week 5 slate filled with great games!

MORE: DimersBOT's most likely Touchdown scorers for Week 5 NFL

Without further ado, picks ⤵️

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Free NFL Picks For Week 5, 2021

Jets vs. Falcons: Sun October 10, 9:30AM ET

As stupid as the London NFL games are, I’ve got no problem with an extra timeslot of football to fill up my Sunday (even if the game involves two of the most pathetic organizations in the league). Both of these teams are bad, and it’s hard for much optimism around either of them, but I’m going to dive in head first on the Falcons here because apparently I’m addicted to the pain that is “Atlanta screwing me.” To keep this one short and sweet, there isn’t a team in the league I wouldn’t give up this number on against the Jets. Sure, they came out and beat an absolutely hopeless Titans team riddled with injuries last week, but Zach Wilson is still awful and this roster is the thinnest in the NFL. The Falcons, for all their failures, still have some decent pieces and have played surprisingly well on defense this year, which should be enough to cause Wilson to throw multiple picks (as is tradition). If the number gets up to 3 or above I wouldn’t touch it, but I’ll take the Falcons at less than a FG.

⛏️  PICK: Falcons -2.5

MORE: Jets vs. Falcons simulator

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Packers vs. Bengals: Sun October 10, 1 PM ET

Speaking of teams who have been surprisingly good on defense, enter the Bengals. I feel like we’ve all focused on the Chase-Burrow connection as the success of this Bengals 3-1 start, but in reality it’s their 18.8 points conceded that’s been the difference. In fact, despite some mediocre competition to start the year, the Bengals only average 23 PPG and 345 yards. As for the Packers, things have improved since Week 1 but they still don’t look all that convincing, and I’m not willing to start giving up points on the road for team Rodgers. So, let’s walk away from both and grab the under. 50.5 honestly doesn’t make a lick of sense to me here. Both Cincy and GB average less than 24 PPG scored and 25 or less PPG conceded, which means there’s not one trend you can point to, offensively or defensively, that suggests over 50. While I don’t expect this game is some grind it out/low scoring contest, especially with unusually good weather projected in Cincy for this time of year, the number is too high for these teams at the moment. Both will build off the run game which grinds clock, and I see the winner around 21-24 points.

⛏️ PICK: Total points UNDER 50.5

MORE: Packers vs. Bengals simulator

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Broncos vs. Steelers: Sun October 10, 1 PM ET

Until the Steelers bench Big Ben, Pittsburgh is in trouble. It’s the only downside of having a franchise QB, where teams are willing to give them one last hurrah despite the current player having nothing left in the tank to give, and it usually makes for an ugly final season. But, if we’re being honest, I’m not sure it’s a bad call here either because they probably aren’t much better off with Rudolph anyway. So, to sum things up, the Steelers are destined to suck for the foreseeable future. You see where this is going, so I won’t keep digging the knife deeper into the hearts of Pittsburgh fans, but let’s go with Denver here. The Spread is 0 on this one, so we’re in the unusual and fun position of just picking who will win this game, and I think the Broncos are good enough to handle this matchup. While Bridgewater’s concussion poses some questions, I think Lock isn’t all that much worse than him overall so the uncertainty doesn’t scare me, and this defense is still good enough to hold down the Steelers (even in their tough loss last week they only gave up 23 to the Ravens). Denver is the better team here overall, even on the road, and I think they handle this game.

⛏️ PICK: Broncos moneyline

MORE: Broncos vs. Steelers simulator

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Titans vs. Jaguars: Sun October 10, 1 PM ET

Did I pick this game purely to talk about Urban Meyer? No. But it didn’t hurt. To be honest, I’m not sure what the news here is. He’s a lifetime college football coach whose career was built on trying to woo younger people to come play for his team, and the fact that it’s carried over to other parts of his life really shouldn’t be all that surprising. And, if we’re being honest, Urban Meyer never screamed “stand up guy” anyway. That aside, it should be interesting to see how the first game after the news plays out (before they inevitably fire him in a few weeks), and I think this game has “high scoring” written all over it. The Titans couldn’t even stop the Jets from putting up 21 in regulation and the Jaguars have much more talent across the field than NY, which doesn’t inspire confidence in Tennessee. On the other side of the ball, Julio Jones should be back and the Jags are 4th to last in PPG conceded to start the season, which suggests points on that end of the field. Basically, I don’t see how either gets all that many stops, and some sloppy turnovers that lead to points wouldn’t shock me either. At 48.5 the number is fairly high for two below-average teams, but I think the over still projects well here.

⛏️ PICK: Total points OVER 48.5

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MORE: Titans vs. Jaguars simulator

Browns vs. Chargers: Sun Oct 10, 4:00 PM ET

While Bills-Chiefs will get all the headlines, this may be the most interesting game of the weekend. Both of these teams are sitting at 3-1 with some genuine potential to make the step up as a contender, and winning this game would make a huge difference in that quest. Both are also LOADED with offensive talent that could carve up any defense on the ground or through the air, which should make it an exciting game to watch. So where’s the edge? I like the Chargers here, mostly because of their consistency. Cleveland’s defense has had some surprisingly good performances the last couple of weeks, but they’re still liable to get burned for an ugly number like they did against KC or even Houston. The Chargers, while not exactly as explosive on defense, have held the Chiefs and Cowboys (two of the best offenses in the league) to a respectable number, and I think they can do more against the Browns offense than the opposite matchup. This is another game that hinges on getting the line at less than 3, but with the Chargers currently 2 point favorites I like them to cover in this one.

⛏️ PICK: Chargers -2

MORE: Browns vs. Chargers simulator

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Giants vs. Cowboys: Sunday October 10, 4:30 PM ET

This game will hinge pretty heavily on who dictates the pace of play. If the Cowboys get their way then this turns into a shootout that hits some ugly numbers, while the Giants will be trying to slow things down and control the clock. I’m feeling optimistic, so let’s throw our chips on the former. We all know how the Cowboys want to play, and it looks something like a college football game with Ole Miss playing Ole Miss. But the key to this total is the development of NY, particularly on offense. As Barkley improves the Giants become more of a threat, and his performance against the Saints showed he’s got his legs back. While the Cowboys defend the run fairly well, the danger of him breaking off a big chunk will cause problems for an already depleted secondary and open up a passing game that’s shockingly averaging close to 300 YPG. As for the defenses, there isn’t much positive to say. Both give up close to 400 yards and 25 PPG, which gives very little confidence that either will hold things together. Down in Jerry world with no elements to battle, I think both put points on the board and this one gets close to 60.

⛏️ PICK: Total points OVER 52

MORE: Giants vs. Cowboys simulator

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