Free NFL 2021 Picks and Predictions – Prospector Sam Week 4 Best Bets

Well folks, I apologize if I come off a little grumpier than usual, but the Prospector has had better days.

I had planned to write this article on my flight to Vegas, filled with hope and excitement as I zipped through the sky towards gambler’s Candy Land, with nothing but good times ahead. Instead, I’m sitting in at a gate as engineers crawl over my plane trying to figure out how to start the engines, an important part of flying so I’m told. The lesson? Learn to manage expectations. Or maybe don’t fly too close to the sun. I’m not quite sure to be honest.

But we can also spin this bad news into a positive, and that’s what I’ll try to do here. Gambling is still dictated by luck, no matter how much we like to pretend otherwise. And, if nothing else, I’m getting a hell of a lot of bad luck out of the way right now. Maybe, just maybe, the karmic gods will smile down on me after such a bad moment and give me a boost this weekend to get rich and win all my picks. So if anyone out there with power in that department is listening, it would be swell if you could do me a solid this time. I’m sure I’ve done a lot of bad stuff that warrants me to suffer a bit, but in this moment I feel like I’ve got a bit of high ground to stake my claim. Throw me a bone (or some gold nuggets, preferably), just this once.

MORE: DimersBOT's most likely Touchdown scorers for Week 4 NFL

Without further ado, picks ⤵️

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Free NFL Picks For Week 4, 2021

Washington vs. Falcons: Sun October 3, 1 PM EDT

Talk about an awful game. The Falcons went from a decent team that was destined to blow it at the end of games, to a team that just plain sucks. Atlanta averages 16 points per game on the season, having faced daunting defenses (that was some pleasant alliteration, maybe I do have some writing skill?) like... the Eagles and Giants? yeah, not exactly daunting. WFT, meanwhile, is having a mess trying to figure out how to get Heinicke moving the ball, and their greatest success so far has been “wait for the Bills to start blowing you out and then their defense will let up.” You see where this is going, so I’ll skip to the good part and say I’m taking the under. At 47.5 the number is a bit scary because both of these teams are giving up over 30 PPG, but it takes offensive skill to get points on the board and I high expectations from either side. I could see both teams hitting a higher yard number than normal, given the shaky defenses, but neither inspires confidence for converting in the Red Zone and I expect this one ends with the winner around 21-24 points. If that’s the case, under 47.5 should play out nicely.

⛏️  PICK: Under 47.5 (1.5 Units)

MORE: Washington vs. Falcons simulator

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Lions vs. Bears: Sun October 3, 1 PM EDT

In round one of this week’s game show, “teams I can’t imagine betting on right now,” we have the Chicago Bears. How Matt Nagy still has a job is more impressive at this point than sad (unless you’re a Bears fan), and so long as he’s in charge they’re destined for failure. While the Lions don’t scream “reliable,” they’ve shown flashes of improvement under Goff and I think they’re, at worst, a coin flip to handle this match. The Bears can’t even figure out what Quarterback to use, and they’re up against a team who held Lamar Jackson to 16 points last week (if you want to count that field goal, be my guest, but time doesn’t lie). I think the Lions do enough defensively to keep the Bears down (not that it takes all that much), and I like them with the 3 bonus points in the event of a finish that comes down to a field goal.

⛏️ PICK: Lions +3 (1 unit)

MORE: Lions vs. Bears simulator

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Browns vs. Vikings: Sun October 3, 1 PM EDT

Who plays defense first? Well, more accurately, it may be which offense makes a mistake first because neither of these defenses can do a damn thing, but we’ll pretend the defense deserves credit. The Vikings have holes all over the secondary, and Baker Mayfield should be able to pick apart this defense with the array of options he as, including the most dangerous two-headed running game in the NFL. While the Browns defense showed glimpses of hope against the Bears, that undoubtedly had a lot more to do with their opponents ineptitude than the Brown’s being impressive, and I think they regress back to the type of play we’ve come to expect from them. Both of these teams are extremely comfortable playing shootout-style games, and in the dome they won’t have any elements to deal with in terms of airing the ball out. This game could get up to an ungodly number, and I think it handles 51.5 fairly comfortably.

⛏️ PICK: Over 51.5 (2.5 Units)

MORE: Browns vs. Vikings simulator

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Titans vs. Jets: Sun October 3, 1 PM EDT

On to round two of this week’s game show! This time, we have the New York Jets, who are one of the worst football teams I’ve ever had the displeasure of watching. After the Gase years the Jets were reeling and thin at almost every position, and even if Zach Wilson turned out to be a stud this rebuild was going to take some time. But, unfortunately (or fortunately, for the casual fan), Wilson has been absolutely awful and the Jets average 6.7 points PER GAME. While a spotty Titans defense will provide more opportunities for the Jets to succeed on that side of the ball, I just don’t see how you can have any faith in them to score unless your life literally depends on it. The Titans, for all their struggles so far, are 2-1 with wins over two playoff teams this season, and Derrick Henry is eating people alive to the surprise of nobody. Not having Brown and Jones is going to hurt, but Tennessee has enough talent to make up for those losses (especially since Brown has been useless this season anyway). I think Tennessee beats down on the Jets in this one, and giving up 6.5 doesn’t scare me a bit.

⛏️ PICK: Titans -6.5 (1.5 Units)

MORE: Titans vs. Jets simulator

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Cardinals vs. Rams: Sun Oct 3, 4:30 PM EDT

The Cardinals are probably the hardest team to figure out in the league. They’ve shown flashes of brilliance, but also had moments of complete stupidity (Kliff did a little too much coke before deciding they could make that 68 yarder). And, while I love to watch and root for Kyler Murray, we’re seeing too much high quality play from the Rams to bet against them at this number. Stafford has been a huge boost for this offense and Aaron Donald is just impossible to defend, which creates all sorts of matchup nightmares. While scrambling out of the pocket isn’t exactly a problem for Murray, I think they struggle to move the ball as effectively this week. Oh, and their defense is a mess. Sure, they’ve shown some life at times, but judging from the Vikings performance Kupp is going to carve them up and I don’t see how they slow down this offense. I think the Rams are a better team overall, and they handle this one by about a TD at home.

⛏️ PICK: Rams -4 (1.5 Units)

MORE: Cardinals vs. Rams simulator

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Buccaneers vs. Patriots: Sunday October 3, 8:30 PM EDT

This is it. The big one. All eyeballs will be on Brady vs Belichick in the first matchup between the two men who conquered the NFL and became the most successful coach and QB in the history of the league (it’s not a debate, its a fact). Brady has undoubtedly gotten the better of the split so far with the Super Bowl last year, but people want to see head to head combat and we finally get it. Now, I’ll be honest, that line is a nightmare. I wouldn't touch that number if it would cure cancer (well, maybe i would), and the fact that the books aren’t budging from -7 despite all the money being on the Bucs tells you something isn’t right. But the total, and more specifically the under, have a lot of value. The Patriots can’t score right now with Mac Jones and this putrid band of receivers they have, and their only hope in this game is to use gadget plays and well timed runs to pick up chunk yards. Don’t expect a ton out of this offense, other than for them to slow the game down and run clock. As for the Bucs offense, that’s where the total hinges, and I think BB is smart enough to cause problems for Brady. As everyone saw last week, the trick to stopping Tom is getting pressure up the middle like the Rams did with Donald, which collapses the pocket that Brady can’t move from. While the Pats don’t have anyone near as good as Donald, Bill is a defensive genius and I think he keeps Tom on his toes (if anyone knows how to coach against him, it's the man who coached his offense for 20 years). I think this game plays a bit tighter between those factors and the significance of the game, and I think under 49 is a strong play in this one. Hopefully we get some late drama to go with it.

⛏️ PICK: Under 49 (1 Unit)

MORE: Bucs vs. Patriots simulator

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