Free NFL 2021 Picks and Predictions – Prospector Sam's Week 9 Best Bets

Prospector Sam is here with this week's deep dive on NFL Week 9, providing free football picks for the community.

I try very hard not to complain about “how I got screwed” or “how I deserved to hit” when I lose a bet. This is gambling, and some days you’re going to get unlucky, so crying about mostly sounds like sour grapes. But I’m going to break that rule right now because I have made a new mortal enemy in none other than Lions Head Coach Dan Campbell. As I watched the Lions-Eagles game last Sunday, where I bet the under at 48, everything looked prime for an easy cover. The Eagles were up 31-0 in the third quarter and the game was ready to fizzle out and die because the result was a foregone conclusion. But I’ll be fucking damned if Dan Campbell, who probably reminded teachers when they forgot to give out homework in grade school, couldn’t help but continue to “play football” (and by that I mean “hopelessly trot out his players to onside kick down 35 fucking points”) and blow the under as he forced out an unnecessary spree of fourth quarter points.

I’m all for playing hard and fighting to win, but at a certain point it’s just foolish. And, even worse, he gave the Eagles no choice but to keep embarrassing his team as he handed them short field after short field. Bad bounces or breaks are one thing, but acting like an absolute moron is another, and that’s what we saw out of Campbell this weekend. As the saying goes, “you can’t handicap stupid,” and that performance belongs in the Sports Darwin Awards.

*Deep Breath*..... Enough ranting, time to move on and bring back happy Sam, who’s excited for more football and primed for some wins.

Let’s do it! ⤵️

Prospector Sam's NFL picks are proudly brought to you by TwinSpires Sportsbook.

Free NFL Picks For Week 9, 2021

Browns vs. Bengals: Sun Nov 7, 1 PM ET

Speaking of getting screwed, let’s talk about the Bengals. Last week was obviously a big problem for them, not only because of the result but because they got torched by a dude who barely made it to the NFL, but I think that was more of an anomaly than anything else. It’s harder to gameplan for unknowns sometimes, and this offense is still clicking pretty damn well. More importantly for me, is the Browns are trying their hardest to, well, be the Browns. Despite all the optimism and winning, they just cant fucking help themselves from looking like a John Wayne Gacy painting, and the OBJ saga is just another in a long string of failures. Also, they continue to start a QB with a broken arm, which just baffles me. I get it, it’s not the one he throws with, but he has 300 pound men charging at him and that injury is sure as hell going to affect him in other ways. So, while the Bengals had a tough week, I still have a lot more belief in Cincy right now than I do in Cleveland, and at just a 2.5 point spread at home I think the Bengals handle their business here. Look for their defense to step up more, which has been the key to their success so far, and maybe bet your life savings on Chase to score a TD because that seems to be inevitable.

⛏️  PICK: Bengals -2.5

MORE: Browns vs. Bengals simulator

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Broncos vs. Cowboys: Sun Nov 7, 1 PM ET

Has anyone making these lines watched a Broncos game? Seriously, because I have no goddamn clue how you expect this game to hit 50 points if you have. The Broncos play the most boring football, bar none, in the NFL and average less than 20 points scored and conceded on the year. Teddy Bridgewater will check down like his life depends on it, and their defense can do enough to cause problems for opponents. The loss of Von Miller, while hilariously bad for the Broncos from a trade standpoint, won’t be too damaging to their overall unit, and I think they can contain the Cowboys better than many other teams. Also important, they just aren’t built to take advantage of the Cowboys poor secondary, and they will continue to play methodical football at all costs. At 49.5 this number feels way too high for me unless the Cowboys can get Denver into a shootout (which the Broncos know they should avoid at all costs), and I like this one to end closer to 42-45 for the total.

⛏️ PICK: Total points UNDER 49.5

MORE: Broncos vs. Cowboys simulator

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Chargers vs. Eagles: Sun Nov 7, 4:05 PM ET

One win over the Lions does not a good team make (did I do that Shakespearean stuff right? I honestly have no clue). Sure, Philly ran all over the Detroit defense and put up an impressive win, but Hurts still can’t throw the ball worth a damn and that one-dimensionality is going to come back and bite them in the ass. The Chargers are coming off two impressively poor performances, including a home loss to the Pats (yes, I mentioned that for no reason other than to make me happy), but this team has too many pieces offensively to struggle over the long term. The weather in Philly looks to be decent which will allow Herbert to throw the ball, and that  gives LA a massive advantage both through the air and by opening up room for Ekeler to run. I think the Chargers get things back on track to win this game, and I’ll give up the 1.5 on them even on the road.

⛏️ PICK: Chargers -1.5

MORE: Chargers vs. Eagles simulator

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Falcons vs. Saints: Sun Nov 7, 1:00 PM ET

The Saints pulled off the ultimate upset last week over the Bucs despite losing Jameis, and it’s brought a lot of optimism in about their prospects on a backup QB. I say hogwash! While the late game performance was impressive, it felt almost like a “fight or flight” response from Trevor Siemian, and I don’t think that level of quality holds up over the long haul. The Falcons aren’t exactly stellar either (actually, they’re pretty awful), but I don’t feel comfortable giving up this many points on a New Orleans team that’s losing offensive weapons faster than I lose brain cells from dumb decisions. Kamara is good enough to drag them forward and play at a decent level, but the Saints will regress from their 5-2 mark over the next month as the reality of these injuries sets in. As for the Falcons, they aren’t going to shock anyone with a playoff run, but this offense succeeds when Ryan can pass the ball effectively and the Saint defense gives up an abysmal 281 YPG through the air. I think Atlanta keeps it close, and I’ll take the 6 points.

⛏️ PICK: Falcons +6

MORE: Falcons vs. Saints simulator

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Cardinals vs. 49ers: Sun Nov 7, 4:25 PM ET

Now wait just a goddamn second. How in the love of all things holy can the Cardinals only be 1 point favorites in this game? This team is 7-1 coming off a couple of days extra rest post TNF, facing a 3-4 49ers team riddled with injuries. Sure, San Fran just won last weekend to break a 4 game losing streak, but I don’t think beating a team coached by Matt Nagy holds very much weight. All accounts are that Kyler is good to go, and so long as he’s running this offense they’re going to put up a bunch of points. More importantly, I don’t trust Garoppolo and whatever RB they’ve pulled off the practice squad this week to win this game, and they haven’t looked the same without the All-Pro talent of Kittle causing matchup issues for defenses. Only giving up 1 point on the Cardinals feels like a gift, and I’ll be putting down a bigger bet on this one than any other NFL game.

⛏️ PICK: Cardinals -1

MORE: Cardinals vs. 49ers simulator