Free NFL 2021 Picks and Predictions – Prospector Sam's Week 7 Best Bets

Prospector Sam is here with this week's deep dive on NFL Week 6, providing free football picks for the community.

If the Gold Diggers ever doubt that I love them, just remember this piece. Because, despite the fact that my life is in chaos and I’m about as sleep deprived as I’ve ever been, I felt so awful about skipping an article that I forced myself to sit down and write. And, as funny as it sounds, this gig is a great break from real life and the number of people I’ve gotten engaging on twitter or telling me that they enjoy the writing has truly been heartwarming (I know, I’m a softie) the last few weeks. I genuinely enjoy doing this and gladly do it for free, but it’s always better to know other people are buying in as well. In fact, you people have gotten so good that it’s starting to get me in trouble.

MORE: Most likely TD scorers for Week 7 NFL

Take for example, an offhanded comment on Twitter I made about wanting a theme song for Prospector Sam. This was, 100%, a random thought that popped into my head that made me laugh, and I shared it with no intention of ever following through. Instead, I got MULTIPLE responses with legitimate ways to have one written, which both floored me and left me in a bit of a bind because I had to explain that I genuinely hadn’t thought through the idea enough to actually do it. Alas, if there’s one constant for Prospector Sam, it’s that I will continue to spout off ridiculous ideas without any regard for consequences. And, even if it wasn’t particularly helpful this time, it’s cool to see how this character has grown recently (there’s no chance anyone would have responded even a few months ago).

With that, enough rambling nonsense. I don't have time for any more of it anyway. Let’s get a few picks on the page. ⤵️

Prospector Sam's NFL picks are proudly brought to you by TwinSpires Sportsbook.

Free NFL Picks For Week 7, 2021

Chiefs vs. Titans: Sun Oct 24, 1 PM EDT

The smart thing to do here would be to bet against the Chiefs. Seriously. They’ve proven time and time again that they just aren’t as good as people make them out to be, and they consistently fail to cover spreads. But, while that may be the case, I have absolutely no faith in this Titans team either so I just can’t wrap my brain around either side of this line. So, despite my better judgment, I’m gonna walk away and run with the total. Even worse, I’m going to be borderline psychotic and take the under, which is generally a bad idea when either of these teams is playing (not to mention both). These teams each hover close to the 30 PPG scored and conceded on the year, which makes the 57.5 point total pretty fair. That said, this is an important matchup between two playoff teams, and we’re starting to get to the point of the year where things tighten up in important games. The Chiefs can’t afford to keep throwing away games and expect to finish atop the AFC West, and the Titans will know this is an important litmus test for their chances of winning the Conference. I don’t expect this to be a slow burner that ends in the 30s, but these teams have enough game tape at this point of the year to gameplan better, and it just feels like a matchup where the world is expecting 100 points and end up being let down. If you don’t like “gut feeling” picks, this one isn’t for you, but I expect this under to hit.

⛏️  PICK: Total points UNDER 57.5

MORE: Chiefs vs. Titans simulator

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Falcons vs. Dolphins: Sun Oct 24, 1 PM EDT

The Dolphins are bad, Tua is bad, basically everything is bad as far as Miami fans are concerned. Losing to the Jaguars is never a good feeling, and having to travel back from London and play a game 7 days later is a nice cherry on top of that cake of pain (note to self: find a way to bake that cake for a great visual), especially since the Falcons are coming off a bye week. The Falcon’s aren’t exactly “great” either, but they have decent pieces and are good enough to handle the crappier teams in the league, particularly as they get Kyle Pitts more involved. With an extra week of rest and game tape, I think the Falcons handle this one so long as we get them at 3 or less.

⛏️ PICK: Falcons -2.5

MORE: Falcons vs. Dolphins simulator

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Panthers vs. Giants: Sun Oct 24, 1 PM EDT

Keeping with the trend of fading teams who are awful, let’s return to our friends the Giants. Simply put, their performance against the Rams last sunday was one of the most embarrassing NFL games I’ve ever seen, and this team is hopeless with Daniel Jones leading them. Barkley has enough talent to cause defenses issues when he’s playing which can cover over some cracks, but while he’s injured this team doesn’t have a prayer against anyone decent. The Panther’s are toeing that line, but the addition of Stephen Gilmore is going to help this defense a ton and Sam Darnold is playing well enough (as shocking as that sentence is to say) to make them a comfortable winner in this game. I think the Panthers win this by closer to a TD.

⛏️ PICK: Panthers -3 

MORE: Panthers vs. Giants simulator

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Bears vs. Buccaneers: Sun Oct 24, 4:30 PM EDT

This game comes down to a couple of assumptions that I’m relying on heavily. The first is that I think the Bucs will be able to put up points on this Bears defense, even though they’re only conceding around 20 PPG. The logic? Brady and this cast of receivers are just too fucking good, and I think they make it close to their 32 PPG average. As for the Bears, I think their sputtering offense is able to do more this week because the Bucs D is also just that fucking bad. They give up a good amount of points per game and their secondary is thinner than a 2000s Victoria’s Secret model, which will help rookie QB Justin Fields a ton. I’m not sure the Bears put up huge numbers, but 20 is very doable for them in this one. With a total at just 47, which is incredibly low for a Bucs game, I think the over is a solid play, particularly in Tampa where weather shouldnt be a huge issue. Look for a higher scoring game then the books are predicting.

⛏️ PICK: Total points OVER 47

MORE: Bears vs. Bucs simulator

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Colts vs. 49ers: Sun Oct 24, 8:30 PM EDT

Let me start by saying I like Trey Lance and the pieces that this 49ers team has. I think, sometime in the next couple of years, they start contending for the division and maybe more, and I’m excited to see what they can do. But RIGHT NOW, this team has issues. Lance is still learning the offense and how to be an NFL QB, he’s missing his All Pro safety blanket in Kittle, and the defense isn’t stepping up enough to make the difference needed to win games. The Colts still look pretty soft as well, but they’re getting more production out of Jonathan Taylor which will make a huge difference in the flow of this offense, and their D is above average for this League. I see this game as pretty much a coin flip, even in San Fran, and getting 4 points on the Colts is enough for me to feel comfortable with the line. I think there’s a very good chance this comes down to a last minute FG, and I’ll ride with the points based on that

⛏️ PICK: Colts +4

MORE: Colts vs. 49ers simulator

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