Free NFL 2021 Picks and Predictions – Prospector Sam's Week 6 Best Bets

Prospector Sam is here with this week's deep dive on NFL Week 6, providing free football picks for the community.

Getting things back on track is always nice, and I did that in a big way last weekend with the NFL. To put it kindly, the season hadn’t started all that well for yours truly but a 5-1 slate last week shifted things in the right direction. And, to give myself an extra excuse, I think gambling on the NFL gets a lot easier as time passes because the first few weeks are a feeling out period for a lot of teams. Does that mean I’ll be some savant who never loses for the rest of the year? Of course not, I’ve never been a savant at anything (much to the disappointment of my parents, sorry mom and dad). But I do think I’ll be able to see the board better and produce more of what the people want to see on a consistent basis from this point forward, so long as I avoid betting on the Broncos ever again.

MORE: Most likely TD scorers for Week 6 NFL

Aside from that intro, I don’t have a whole lot to say, aside from a small shoutout to my good friend Jerry who had the gall to start talking trash on Twitter last Sunday. I dearly love Jerry, but he has a terrible habit of thinking that the Dolphins are going to miraculously be good despite all signs pointing otherwise and he also has a bit of an issue with jumping the gun (in sports at least, you can ask him personally about the bedroom). With the Dolphins winning in the first quarter and the Pats losing, Jeribald (I like to think that’s his real name) started taking Tiger Woods-esque swings which was, unfortunately, three quarters too early. The Dolphins end up getting blown out, the Pats win, and poor Jerry is now sad. So If you see Jerry posting about the Dolphins, just take a second to remind him about this moment and the importance of patience in sports. We don’t want him making any more silly comments about the Dolphins being better than the Pats again.

Without further ado, picks ⤵️

Prospector Sam's NFL picks are proudly brought to you by TwinSpires Sportsbook.

Free NFL Picks For Week 6, 2021

Dolphins vs. Jaguars: Sun October 17, 9:30AM ET

And let’s start things off with those Dolphins! This total is so much fun. If you look at the offensive production these two teams have had to start the year it’s pretty easy to talk yourself into the under, but then you look at the defensive production (or lack thereof) and the over gets much prettier. Call me an optimist, but I’m gonna hang my (hard) hat on the defensive side. Each of these teams concedes over 30 PPG, which would easily eclipse the 47 point number if that trend holds. While I think 60+ is probably a bit much to expect, these offenses haven’t been all that bad, particularly the Jaguars once they decided to get James Robinson involved. Trevor Lawrence is bound to get better (or at least stop making idiotic mistakes) as the year goes on which will allow Jacksonville to turn good drives into points, while the Dolphins should have an easier time converting against this Jaguars defense than they have in recent weeks. My only fear is that this game stalls from incompetent play by both teams (or some jetlag issues in London), but as long as we get some momentum early I think they can handle this total.

⛏️  PICK: Total points OVER 47

MORE: Jets vs. Falcons simulator

---

Texans vs. Colts: Sun October 17, 1 PM ET

Sometimes it’s easy to forget, but blowing teams out in the NFL is hard. These are all still professionals and even the worst franchise is loaded with talented players, which means you need to be damn good for me to lay down double digits on you. And, honestly, the 1-4 Colts are not the team to do it on. Sure, the return of Wentz will help (assuming he’s halfway decent) and this team has more pieces than the Texans do to succeed, but Davis Mills has looked better with each week and the Colts defense is giving up almost 26 PPG. Are the Texans going to win this game? Probably not. Their defense is still suspect and their poor running game is only going to get worse with Tunsil out. But, getting 10 points to work with, I think there’s enough of a cushion here to like the Texans against a Colts unit that just isn’t all that spectacular and coming off a short week.

⛏️ PICK: Texans +10

MORE: Texans vs. Colts simulator

---

Chargers vs. Ravens: Sun October 17, 1 PM ET

The Chargers (or maybe just Brandon Staley) are a gambler’s best friend. That may seem silly to highlight, but the reality is that the Chargers have used late game strategies that are unconventional but create value for bettors because they skew towards scoring more points on a TD rather than a FG. And, in a game the books see as a close matchup (2.5 point line), that reality may matter a lot. As for the matchup itself, I don’t know how you can love this Ravens team right now. 4-1 looks nice, but when you consider that they were gifted a win by the refs against Detroit and then gifted a win by the Colts against the Colts, that record starts to look less friendly. The Ravens are 2-3 against the spread on the year and only have 1 win against a team with a winning record. So, given my mistrust of Baltimore, I’m going to skip the spread and just jump right to the money line. While the Chargers defense has some obvious issues, Baltimore isn’t moving the ball all that well on a consistent basis and could struggle with their lack of passing weapons. As for the Chargers, the one two punch of Herbert and Ekeler will cause major problems for a Ravens team conceding over 400 YPG, and I think San Diego ends up taking this one on the road.

⛏️ PICK: Chargers moneyline (+130)

MORE: Chargers vs. Ravens simulator

---

Bengals vs. Lions: Sun October 17, 1 PM ET

Time to go back to the “Bengals Under” well. I wrote last week about how the real reason for Cincy’s fast start has been their defense, and, while they weren’t exactly stellar against the Packers, 25 points against Aaron Rodgers isn’t anything to sneeze at. This week, against a Lions offense that manages the clock and doesn’t take a lot of risks, I don’t expect them to concede all that many once again. As for the Bengals’ offense, there’s some tough times ahead. They’ve papered over serious issues by hitting a few deep balls to Ja’Marr chase, but as teams adjust and take away that option by bringing more safety protection, the Bengals are going to have to beat teams with other options. Tyler Boyd has had a decent season, but aside from him nobody else is stepping up on this offense and their best option will be to start feeding Mixon more, which will slow games down and eat clock. That leads me back to the under, which looks pretty solid to me at 47.5 based on those assumptions. I think these teams could be in for a slow grinder here, and I would be shocked to see either find a lot of opportunities for explosive plays. So long as we dont see huge turnover mistakes in bad situations, I think the under hits comfortably.

⛏️ PICK: Total points UNDER 47.5

MORE: Bengals vs. Lions simulator

---

Cardinals vs. Browns: Sun Oct 17, 4:05 PM ET

Like pretty much everyone else watching the NFL, I don’t quite understand how this Cardinals team is 5-0. Setting aside the fact that they should have lost to Minnesota, they just don’t look all that dominant and get themselves into trouble with defensive mistakes. But, while that may be true, it’s impossible to deny the body of work at this point and they’ve won 4 of 5 by 7+ points. The Browns, on the other hand, have underperformed. 3-2 doesn’t look all that bad, but they’ve pissed away leads against the two good opponents they faced this year and their 3 wins are all against teams who you wouldn’t expect to make the playoffs. So, to get 3 points on the Cardinals, especially with that field goal hook, is a huge bonus in my opinion. The Cardinals are due for a tough loss at some point, but the Browns haven’t impressed enough to expect it here and this game feels like a coin toss to me. I’ll take the 3 points all day.

⛏️ PICK: Cardinals +3

MORE: Cardinals vs. Browns simulator

---

Seahawks vs. Steelers: Sun October 17, 8:30 PM ET

After Big Ben went out and proved everyone wrong last week against the Broncos (he was average, but average was a huge step up), the question now is whether he can replicate that performance. I think the answer is yes, but it has absolutely nothing to do with him. Because, while the Steelers looked much better last week, that was primarily the result of getting Najee Harris moving to the tune of 122 yards, which opened up the passing game. Losing Juju won’t help things much, but I still believe, with a balanced offense, that the Steelers will be able to produce some points. Enough points to cover? I have no clue. I expect they end up in the 24-28 range against an embarrassing Seahawks “defense” (not even sure they deserve the term), and the spread comes down to how well Geno Smith does filling in at QB. While he’s obviously not as good as Wilson, he looked competent stepping into the role and should be able to move the ball with the offensive weapons at his disposal. To throw some useful numbers at you, In each of the 5 games the Steelers have played they’ve given up between 19 and 27 points. That consistency is good for us, because we can expect that level of production for Seattle which would put us comfortably at the over (42.5) if everything goes to plan. To sum things up, I think the Seahawks still produce offensively despite losing Wilson but will give up points because they’re so porous that just about any team could move the ball against them. 42.5 is fairly low for an NFL total, and I think this matchup has enough juice to cross that line.

⛏️ PICK: Total points OVER 42.5

MORE: Seahawks vs. Steelers simulator

---

SUNDAY BETTING HUB:

🏈 SUNDAY'S BEST BETS
🔥 MOST LIKELY TOUCHDOWN SCORERS
📊 PICKS FOR EVERY NFL GAME