Free NFL 2021 Picks and Predictions – Prospector Sam's Week 13 Best Bets

Prospector Sam is back on deck to provide the Dimers community with free picks for the Week 13 NFL slate.

Some age-old questions simply don’t have an answer. The chicken vs the egg, an unstoppable force against an immovable object, and why people enjoy tennis all come to mind as conundrums that even the best minds will never be able to solve. And, in an unfortunate turn of events for the philosophers of our time, we can add another to that list: Tom Brady vs Bill Belichick. During the decade plus of greatness and the eventual split between these two Hall of Famers, every sports writer and pundit had a take on which was the REAL REASON why the Patriots were so good for so long, and last year’s Bucs Super Bowl was a pretty big victory for the Brady side. But, while Bill had to take a year to regroup and rebuild this Pats roster, he’s managed to turn a rookie QB and a team with very few big names into a championship contender, which is arguably more impressive than Brady jumping onto a team already built to win. Alas, we may never truly know who is greater, and the answer may simply be “yes.”

With that completely irrelevant tangent out of the way, let’s get to the good stuff you all came for; picks! ⤵️

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Free NFL Picks For Week 13, 2021

Chargers vs. Bengals: Sun Dec 5, 1 PM EST

I think a lot of people, myself included, need to accept that this Chargers team just isn’t all that good. Despite some flashes of brilliance and enough weapons to fill an aircraft carrier, they continue to cause issues for themselves and never seem to put together a complete performance. The Bengals, meanwhile, are deceptively strong on both ends of the field and have bounced back impressively from their midseason speed bump by winning a couple of games. It doesn’t take a detective to solve this puzzle, so let’s agree to take Cincy. The Bengals have an 8 point differential in points scored vs conceded per game, while the Chargers are at -2 (a fairly good proxy for overall performance), and Cincinnati also has home field advantage here. While I’d be licking my lips if the line was down below the 3 point line, I still think the Bengals are more like 4 to 5 points better here and 3 isn’t high enough to scare me off. If you’re looking for a key matchup, Joe Mixon against the Chargers horrendous run defense should be enough to tip you over the edge in this one. Take the Bengals -3.

⛏️  PICK: Bengals -3

MORE: Chargers vs. Bengals simulator

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Colts vs. Texans: Sun Dec 5, 1 PM EST

Sometimes you have to bet against a team rather than betting on a team, and that pretty much sums up what we’re gonna do here. The Texans are absolutely atrocious and just got beaten by 7 against a Jets team led by Zack Wilson last week, which is nearly impossible to do. The Titans win from Week 11 looked nice on paper, but injuries are really coming back to bite Tennessee and that victory is starting to look less like a strong performance than a pissing contest of ineptitude. The Colts aren’t exactly stellar either, but they showed against the Bucs that their offense can move the ball effectively, and their biggest problem, stopping the pass, isn’t going to be exploited by Tyrod Taylor because he really isn’t capable of doing much damage through the air. 9 points is a pretty hefty figure to give up on a 6-6 team playing on the road, but the Texans are bad enough to justify it. Take Indy to win big.

⛏️ PICK: Colts -9

MORE: Colts vs. Texans simulator

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Washington vs. Raiders: Sun Dec 5, 4:05 PM

Everyone’s got the warm and fuzzies after Vegas’ win over Dallas on Thanksgiving, but I’m not getting fooled. This Raiders team is still shaky offensively, and Darren Waller looking doubtful for this game means their best weapon is Hunter Renfrow (that speaks for itself). While you may think I’m pushing for the WFT line based on that intro, they aren’t going to escape my wrath either. Washington’s offense averages less than 21 PPG and, aside from a confusing win over Tampa, they haven’t looked particularly strong at any point in the season. With that, we go for the trusty under when faced with a matchup of sadness, and I like this one a lot at 49.5. These teams are both subpar offensively, and both will emphasize running the ball given the lack of strong receivers (or, in WFT’s case, a bad QB. Sorry Scary Terry). We took this approach with the Eagles-Giants matchup last week and it worked out pretty darn nice, and, at a higher total in this one, I think this game will treat us just as well. Take the under and try your best not to watch if you can help it.

⛏️ PICK: Total points UNDER 49

MORE: WFT vs. Raiders simulator

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Broncos vs. Chiefs: Sun Dec 5, 8:20 PM EST

I have a very good friend who’s a Broncos fan, and he loves to rail on Vic Fangio. Fangio certainly has his limitations as a coach, and play calling has never been a strong suit in his tenure as Denver’s coach. But, even with that in mind, I think it would be unfair to not recognize how impressive this season has been for Denver considering the offensive injuries and midseason loss of Von Miller. Despite all the reasons to think they won’t succeed, this team is 6-5 with a strong running game and a defense that’s damn hard to crack (just as the Chargers). And, while the Chiefs are rounding back into form, 10 points is just way too many to give up here. The Chiefs may eclipse the 17.8 PPG number that this Broncos defense gives up, but I don’t think they get to a huge number and 21-24 feels likely. As for the Broncos, while their offense is limited by the inability of Teddy Bridgewater to do anything impressive, they don’t make mistakes and they run the ball effectively. If Javonte Williams continues to step up and Jeudy gets back into form coming off his injury, I think the Broncos can keep pace well enough to stay under that very high spread. This is a division matchup between two teams above .500, and giving up 10 just feels crazy to me in this one, especially with how inconsistent the Chiefs have been all year. Take the Broncos and the points.

⛏️ PICK: Broncos +10

MORE: Broncos vs. Chiefs simulator

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Patriots vs. Bills Mon Dec 6, 8:15 PM EST

Let’s round this article out, looking back to the intro, with some talk about the Patriots. This season has taken a dramatic turn in the right direction for them, and it’s almost entirely due to Mac Jones. Teams started the season forcing NE to beat them by throwing and it worked well against a green QB who was still learning the ropes. But, after a few weeks, he improved his ability to read defenses and change plays at the line, and it’s led to him beating offenses who show him too much in the secondary. That opens up more running room as they adjust, and boom, you’ve got a strong offense. As for the Bills, everyone is playing a bit of a guessing game. The 25 point blowout of the Saints was nice, but let’s not forget the 9-6 loss to the Jags or 26 point loss to the Colts in two of the three weeks before. I just don’t know exactly how good they’re going to be, which is why I’m walking away from the line and taking the over. As I mentioned, the Pats offense has been vastly improved, and BB is the best in the league at adjusting to his opposition. This Bills defense is very good and shouldn’t be underestimated, but I think the Pats will be able to get some points on the board. On the other side, Buffalo’s offense is still strong and the return of Russell Knox is a huge help in the Red Zone, while New England’s defensive dominance in the last few weeks has been entirely against immobile QBs. With Allen’s ability to move in and out of the pocket, I think the Bills put up more points than expected here as well, and I think this game as a whole gets closer to 50. At only 43.5 for the total, I think this over is a strong value play.

⛏️ PICK: Total Points OVER 43.5

MORE: Broncos vs. Chiefs simulator