Free NFL 2021 Picks and Predictions – Prospector Sam's Week 11 Best Bets

Prospector Sam is here with this week's deep dive on NFL Week 11, providing free football picks for the community.

Who’s ready for some Thanksgiving football? (Everybody should be raising their hand right now, or you don’t belong here. RAISE IT!) I doubt I’ll have a specific write up for Thursday, since 4 articles and a regular video show for zero pay is already pushing it, so I want to spend a moment now to give a shout out to the NFL for making a decidedly average holiday so much better.

To those who love Thanksgiving, I apologize but you’re also wrong. Sure, I’m glad to take time to be thankful for what I have and the people around me, but I’m pretty thankful for that most days and very little else about the holiday is all that great. Turkey is fine, but I’ve never loved much of the other food and any holiday that promotes pie over cake is a bit misguided. But, with the NFL, we get a full day of sports and gambling where the games also provide an outlet to avoid that annoying significant other your sister brought or the weird uncle who’s a little too into politics despite not really knowing anything aside from what TV tells him. So here’s to you NFL, for another victory in the seemingly endless string of victories for the sport that has stolen our hearts and dominated our weekends.

With that, picks! ⤵️

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Free NFL Picks For Week 11, 2021

Ravens vs. Bears: Sun Nov 21, 1 PM EST

This game featuring the Ravens and Bears is just one big pit of sadness. The Ravens are coming off an embarrassing TNF loss to the Dolphins (I could say more, but losing to the Dolphins is enough in itself), while the Bears had a game pretty much stolen from them on MNF by the refs to cap a 4 game losing streak. And, in line with that, I think we can expect more of the same disappointment from these two which is why I like the under. The total for this game is 45, and I really don’t see how we get there, especially in a late November game at Soldier field where the wind will be blowing and deep passes will be difficult to make. Let’s start with the Bears, who average 17 PPG and are liable to put up single digits in any week. Sure, Fields has improved as of late, but I still don’t trust Nagy to run this offense properly and I don’t believe the Bears will put up big numbers against the Ravens in these weather conditions (they’ll be forced to run more, and Baltimore gives up less than 100 YPG on the ground). As for the Ravens, they probably improve from their last performance but there are still clearly some issues with this offense and I don’t know that they can give us enough to get to the 45 point mark. It probably takes close to 30 from them to hit the over, and I just don’t see it. I expect this game to be more of a grind that ends in the 30s (total) and I’ll gladly take the under. Check out Dimers' full projected player stats for Ravens vs. Bears.

⛏️  PICK: Total points UNDER 45

MORE: Ravens vs. Bears simulator

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Packers vs. Vikings: Sun Nov 21, 1 PM EST

Another one? I feel like a sad sellout, but Packers vs. Vikings is staying under too. But we go where the bets take us, and this matchup is another solid chance for a low scoring game. Last week we took the under in the Packers game with an almost identical number, and that one covered by 32 points. I don’t think this game will be quite as ugly as that, particularly without the Seahawks involved, but the Packers defense is nothing to sneeze at right now and I think they’re getting a bit overlooked. While the Vikings are loaded with offensive talent, they inexplicably have weeks where they just disappear (19 points against the Lions and 7 against the Browns come to mind) and that could be the case again against a Green Bay unit that’s given up more than 14 points once in the last 5 games. As for the Packers offense, they’re moving the ball fairly well but struggling to get points on the board, and the loss of Tonyan at the TE position appears to be fairly big for them. Aaron Jones is also likely out for this game (another offensive downgrade), though I still expect a heavy dose of run against a Vikings defense that gives up over 130 YPG on the ground, which will slow the game down and keep the ball out of Minnesota’s hands. All those factors in mind, 49 feels way too high to me and I’ll gladly go for another Packers under in a game that should be less exciting than people hope.

⛏️ PICK: Total points UNDER 49

MORE: Packers vs. Vikings simulator

Packers vs. Vikings Projected Player Stats

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Bengals vs. Raiders: Sun Nov 21, 4 PM EST

Things could definitely be going better for the Raiders. Off the field issues have been a constant theme for them, and the on field product is starting to reflect it. The loss to the Giants felt about as bad as it could get, then they got their heads caved in by the Chiefs on Primetime and the hole got even deeper. And, what better way to continue their effort to tunnel to Asia than to lose to the Cincinnati Bengals. Coming off a Bye Week, the Bengals will be rested and have had time to lick their wounds from a couple of tough losses in recent weeks, which should help improve their play after some extra practice and film time. Cincy will be able to carve up this Vegas secondary with Chase, Higbee and company the same way KC did, and the only hope for the Raiders to keep up will be to take advantage of a Bengals secondary that gives up 275 YPG through the air. Unfortunately, Derek Carr has returned to the normal Derek Carr in recent weeks, and this offense looks less dangerous without the deep threat of Ruggs to cause coverage issues. I think the Bengals handle this one, and giving up 1 point doesn’t have much effect on that expectation. I like the Bengals to cover against the Raiders.

⛏️ PICK: Bengals -1

MORE: Bengals vs. Raiders simulator

Bengals vs. Raiders Projected Player Stats

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Cowboys vs. Chiefs: Sun Nov 21, 4:25 PM EST

Nice try, Kansas City, but I’m not falling into this trap. The Chiefs have been a missed-cover machine over the last year or so, and I’d be willing to bet that Vegas has made more money on them than any other team over that span. The big win over LV last week may have looked pretty, but I don’t think very highly of the Raiders and I’m not willing to ignore tons of poor performances because of a single blowout. The Cowboys, meanwhile, have the best record ATS in the league, have a better actual record than the Chiefs, and have an offense so loaded with talent that you basically have to decide how you want them to beat you rather than stopping them. There are still reasons to be concerned with Dallas’ secondary, but this team averages 10 more points than they concede on the year, and I don’t think the Chiefs can hang with the Cowboys unless the 2019 version of this team magically reappears. Don’t be fooled into diving back on the Patrick Mahomes grenade (or any grenade, really, why are you diving on a grenade?) and take the Cowboys with the points.

⛏️ PICK: Cowboys +2.5

MORE: Cowboys vs. Chiefs simulator

Cowboys vs. Chiefs Projected Player Stats

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Steelers vs. Chargers: Sun Nov 21, 8:20 PM EST

As much as I want to root for the Chargers and Justin Herbert, QB1 is clearly hitting a bit of a sophomore slump and the team is suffering from it. LA has lost 3 of their last 4 including 2 in a row at home, average less points scored than conceded on the season, and are absolutely awful at stopping the run (155 YPG against). That last stat is particularly important for me because the Steelers are still trotting out a backup in Mason Rudolph, and allowing him to build off the run game of Najee Harris is a huge advantage in getting him comfortable. On top of that, the Steelers tend to play lower scoring games and are happy to wind out the clock, which will make it harder for the Chargers to cover, especially if they get into an early hole. I’m not sure I would be betting on Pittsburgh to pull off an upset, but I like them to keep this close and giving up 5.5 on the Chargers right now, who haven’t won by that number since October 4, is a bit too risky. Look for a close game and ride Mason Rudolph to the promised land. My guys over at Dimers have written a full betting preview for Steelers vs. Chargers, so check it out!

⛏️ Bet this at PointsBet to get a FREE Dimers hoodie: Steelers +5.5

MORE: Steelers vs. Chargers simulator

Steelers vs. Chargers Projected Player Stats