Free NFL 2021 Picks and Predictions – Prospector Sam's Week 10 Best Bets

Prospector Sam is here with this week's deep dive on NFL Week 10, providing free football picks for the community.

Well, last week was a rollercoaster ride to say the least. At this point, I think everyone is just confused as hell about who’s actually good and who isn’t, as Arizona and Tennessee continue to succeed while Kansas City and Buffalo struggle. But, while that may be true, I think it’s time to remind ourselves that things may not be as odd as they seem. The Packers are still running away with the NFC North, the Lions are still a total waste of time and space, and even the Pats are making a push to a return to the top of the AFC East. So, while weird results may be popping up on any given Sunday, let’s look at the forest instead of the trees and recognize that the universe is still right on track (They call me the Walt Whitman of cartoons, minus all the naked swimming).

As for gambling, well, that’s more of a personal matter. I had a pretty solid week at 4-1 including a few comfortable winners, with the lone hiccup being the implosion of the Cincinnati Bengals (which, to tie back to the last paragraph, also feels pretty normal). This week is another big slate as teams jockey for position heading towards the end of the year, and I’m ready to pull ahead of the pack with some solid picks and win the Triple Crown! (did I lose it at the end? Horse racing isn’t my thing, and I didn’t know how to wrap the analogy up). Let’s dig for some gold.

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Free NFL Picks For Week 10, 2021

Browns vs. Patriots: Sun Nov 14, 1 PM EST

Which Cleveland Browns team are we gonna get this week? Some days I feel like I have them figured out, others I don’t have a damn clue. A smarter man might walk away because of that, but I never claimed to possess classic intelligence (though I do have classic beauty. cartoons don’t age, suckers!). To get more serious, I don’t know that I can trust either side of this line considering that volatility, but I do like the under a lot. 45 points isn’t all that high when you consider that the Browns have both scored and conceded over 40 in the last 5 weeks, but the key for me is the Pats. Aside from a tough outing against a loaded Dallas offense, Big Bill has managed to gameplan and limit just about every offense they’ve faced, including the Bucs and the Chargers. I expect the Pats to cause issues for Baker, especially with Nick Chubb sidelined for Covid, while I also think New England’s offense may have some issues. Why? Well, the Browns are effective against the run but susceptible to the pass, which means the Pats will have to win with Mack Jones’ arm. While the wonder boy has stepped up over the last few weeks, he’s still a rookie and he’s going to have the boogie man known as Myles Garrett rushing at him, which is not fun for a QB with just 8 games of experience (or even 80). Add in some rough Massachusetts weather, and I think this game skews lower than expected. Take this one to be lower scoring.

⛏️  PICK: Total points UNDER 45

MORE: Browns vs. Patriots simulator

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Falcons vs. Cowboys: Sun Nov 14, 1 PM EST

Even if Dak is healthy for this game (and thats a big fucking if) I don’t see how you can give up 9 points on ther Cowboys here. The Falcons are playing decent football at the moment and are shockingly healthy for this time of year, both of which point to them giving Dallas at least a fight. While the loss of Ridley is obviously a knock to their offense, they’ve managed to handle things well and Patterson continues to confuse the hell out of everyone (including, presumably, himself) as he gauges defenses week after week. One of the key facts I return to consistently when betting the NFL, though, is that it’s very hard to justify giving up 9+ points on a bet, and you need to be extremely confident that the other side is outmatched to do it. Even still, you can get results like the Jags holding up and beating Buffalo last week. The Falcons aren’t contending for the Super Bowl, but they’re 4-4 and sitting in the 7 Seed for the playoffs as things stand, which just doesn’t point to a team who you can expect to get crushed. Ryan will control the field and the clock, and Dak still isn’t healthy enough to cut apart teams like he can at his best. Grab the 9 points.

⛏️ PICK: Falcons +9

MORE: Falcons vs. Cowboys simulator

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Saints vs. Titans: Sun Nov 14, 1 PM EST

Let me be very clear before I dive into this write up about one thing; Derrick Henry is a monster and he is absolutely not replaceable. That said, we saw last week that this offense can still function effectively without him, and it has a lot to do with the fact that RB is the easiest position to replace in the League. They would be better with Henry, but they’ll also be fine without him. So, for a team scoring over 28 PPG, I’m licking my lips with this 44.5 point total. The line is tempting for the Titans, especially against a Saints team that won’t be nearly as good without Winston, but I think the Over is easier so I’ll walk away from it. The Saints defense is solid, but they won’t be able to slow down the Titans for less than 24 with all the weapons Tennessee has. On the other side of the ball, the Titans still have some issues and give up over 23 per game, which is exactly what you need to see when you’re trotting out a backup QB with a limited skillset. Kamara should be able to do some damage while Siemian will have enough space in the passing game to make plays and open up the field. I think this game covers the 44.5 total comfortably, and I’ll be betting this one heavy.

⛏️ PICK: Total points OVER 44.5

MORE: Saints vs. Titans simulator

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Eagles vs. Broncos: Sun Nov 14, 4:25 PM EST

Huh? I’m not one to call myself some expert line maker and I don’t sit around to calculate exactly what I think the spread should be for every game (I have a general idea, but that level of nuance feels excessive), but this feels absolutely bananas to me. The Broncos are a solid team playing at home, facing a Jaylen Hurts led Eagles team, and I’m only giving up 2.5? Sign me the hell up. Now, to anyone ready to pounce and tell me that Hurts really stepped up and threw the ball well last week, hold your horses. This guy has struggled passing all year, and one decent night against a Chargers secondary that isn’t exactly the Legion of Boom doesn’t impress me all that much. Relying on someone takes consistent performance, and Hurts has never consistently thrown the ball well. Meanwhile, the Broncos know exactly who they are and how to get to where they’re going. Bridgewater plays safe but smart, they play aggressive defense, and they don’t make bad mistakes. I don’t think this Broncos team is going to be making a deep run in January, but they’re good enough to outplay lower-end teams and the Eagles are still that. Remember, Philly still lost that game last weekend. The Broncos win this comfortably at Mile High.

⛏️ PICK: Broncos -2.5 

MORE: Eagles vs. Broncos simulator

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Seahawks vs. Packers: Sun Nov 14, 4:25 PM EST

Well, if nothing else, this matchup will have 2 QBs with fresh legs. Rodgers will be returning from his Covid “mix up” (to be delicate about the situation) while Russel Wilson is likely returning from his gruesome hand injury. Who do you trust (in this case, it’s his football playing and not his word, so we can potentially trust Rodgers)? I’m going with neither. This game has a fairly high total at 49.5, and I just don’t see how we get there. While Wilson is back, his ability to throw effectively is still going to be limited by his injury while Rodgers’ offense really just hasn’t been all that good this year (averaging around 24 points without last week’s game). Add in some good old Green Bay weather (aka potential snow forecasted) and I think this matchup will stay low scoring overall unless we see some blown coverages or bad turnovers.

⛏️ PICK: Total points UNDER 49.5

MORE: Seakhawks vs. Packers simulator

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Rams vs. 49ers: Mon Nov 15, 8:15 PM EST

I genuinely don’t know what people see in this 49ers team that makes them confident that they can be competitive here. SF has won 1 of their last 6 games, with the lone bright spot being a win over the awful Chicago Bears, and 4 of those 5 losses were by 7+. So, excuse me for my bluntness, but I think this team is probably just bad. As for the Rams, they had a tough showing against the Titans last time out, but they have an elite offense and the addition of Von Miller only makes them more dangerous on the defensive end of the field. While Kittle’s return projects to improve the Niners offense, they still have too many flaws defensively and a below average QB in Garoppolo, which is going to make for some tough sledding if they want to beat the Rams. I think LA could potentially blow them out in this one, but I’ll gladly just take the 4 point spread and bet the visitors here.

⛏️ PICK: Rams -4

MORE: Rams vs. 49ers simulator