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Free College Football Picks and Predictions – Week 10 Best Bets, Saturday November 6, 2021
Updated: | First published:
Written by Prospector Sam, Contributor
Prospector Sam has arrived with your free NCAAF betting picks for the Week 10 action!
Well, last week was a fun Saturday to relive one of the worst parts of gambling; As soon as you think you’ve got things figured out, the Gambling God’s come and smack you down like an awkward drunk guy trying to hit on a hot girl at a bar. And, as I watched my bets fall apart from start to finish last weekend in college football, it was hard not to feel something similar to that pain of rejection we’ve all dealt with before in our love lives (yes, as shocking as it is, the weird guy writing sports gambling articles as a cartoon prospector has been shot down many times).
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Not only did I walk into last week thinking I had a shot at going 7-0, I put a lot of money on it and that all went down the tubes. Possibly more painful, though, was the People’s Parlay getting two thirds of the way to free money before certified Non-Gold Digger Lane Kiffin decided that he was going to throw all basic logic and football strategy out the window to get shut out on 4th and 7 multiple times and blow the last leg.
One can only assume he was shouting “Leeeeroy” into his headset each time before he ran face first into his demise (if you don’t get the reference, please don’t tell me. I’d like to not feel old). But a rough week is a reminder for me of my mortality as a gambler (cartoon mortality? I don’t know), and that this game is a constant grind. It was my worst week of the year, and all that means is it’s time to work harder to get things back on track. I never hide from it when things don’t go great, the same way I’ll shout from the rooftops when I win big.
With that, time to get back to my winning ways, and here are my picks of the week! ⤵️
This week's CFB picks are proudly brought to you by BetMGM.
Free NCAAF Picks For Week 10, 2021
Wake Forest vs. UNC, Sat Nov 6, 12:00pm (ET)
It’s appropriate to start this week’s picks with Wake Forest because I owe them a fairly big thank you for all the money they’ve made me this year. But, just as the seasons change, so too will the fortunes of over ranked college football teams (Note to self: apply for song writer positions), and it’s time to fade the hell out of the Deacs. Despite the #10 National Spot and an 8-0 record, Wake has beaten absolutely nobody this season, and that really isn’t all that debatable. You can only play the team in front of you, but the team in front of them this week is going to have a hell of a lot more talent than anyone they’ve seen so far, and that’s gonna be a pretty big hitch. As I see it, that’s exactly where this game and spread hinges as well. Mack Brown has brought in much better talent to Chapel Hill since his arrival and the overall caliber of player is higher across the field than Wake has faced against the UVAs and Louisvilles of the world. While UNC has been an extreme disappointment this season to put it mildly, their skill will cause problems for Wake and I expect that reality will set in a bit for a program who has consistently been mediocre or worse for decades. Sam Hartman and this offense have been a blast to watch and I still think we see a bunch of points here, but the better team overall is UNC and they handle this game with the line under the 3 point hook. Take the Tar Heels to cover.
⛏️ PICK: UNC -2.5
MORE: Wake Forest vs. UNC simulator
Liberty vs. Ole Miss, Sat Nov 6, 12:00pm (ET)
While I absolutely LOATHE relying on Ole Miss or Lane Kiffin for anything at the moment, it’s time to grab some value on the over in this game. Until recently the totals for the Rebel’s were close to the 80s, but sluggish performances over the last couple of games and massive injury issues at the receiver position have brought them back to earth. 67.5 is still pretty darn high, but I think this game could get much higher. To start, Ole Miss is going to torch this Liberty defense for a ton of points no matter who they put out wide, since the disparity in talent and speed of play will be near impossible for the Flames to stop. I think Ole Miss will put up a big number, and 50 isn’t out of the question. As for Liberty, they have the unusual benefit of SEC level talent with transfer Malik Willis at QB, and this offense runs well enough to put up points against an Ole Miss defense that often can’t even be bothered to try. I think we see a big night out of Corral, who’s Heisman push is about the only thing the Rebels have left to play for, and I see this one ending closer to 80 total.
⛏️ PICK: Total points OVER 67.5
MORE: Liberty vs. Mississippi simulator
Michigan State vs. Purdue, Sat Nov 6, 3:30pm (ET)
I’m trying my hardest not to recycle material, but this pick is going to follow pretty much the same damn formula as my bet on the Spartans to cover against Indiana a few weeks ago. To keep things simple, the Spartans have proven to be a strong team and, even if they’re due for a let down game, their quality alone is enough for them to handle a Purdue unit that can’t even figure out which fucking QB to use. Sure, Purdue looked like a program on the upswing after dismantling Iowa a few weeks ago, but that win has proven to be less impressive as the Hawkeyes continue to fall apart and Purdue just doesn’t have the guns to keep up considering their embarrassing 22.9 PPG. Everybody and their mother will be betting the Spartans with the 3 point hook this weekend and it’s not exactly clever to make that call, but sometimes it’s better to keep things simple than trying to make an impressive pick by going out on a limb. I think the Spartans are about a TD better than Purdue, and I’ll happily give up just 3 here.
⛏️ PICK: MSU -3
MORE: Michigan State vs. Purdue simulator
Navy vs. Notre Dame, Sat Nov 6, 3:30pm (ET)
Navy’s ability to succeed on any given night depends on two primary factors: their ability to slow down their opponents run game and to confuse their defense with the triple option. Unfortunately, this game does not set up well for them in either category, and I think the Irish are going to blow their doors off because of it. Let’s start with ND’s offense; Jack Coan has stepped up his play in the last few weeks which has led the Irish to 30+ point performances in each of those matchups, and the Midshipmen’s defense is in for a rough night if he plays at that level considering they already give up 30 PPG. With all the talent this Notre Dame offense has, they should be able to throw up a big number on Navy. As for the other side of the ball, Navy will struggle both because this Irish defense is filled with high level recruits (which will help fill gaps and close running lanes better than other teams can) and because Kelly will know how to defend against the triple option since this is a yearly matchup for these teams. Navy may not score more than once in this game, especially with Tai Lavatai struggling to pick up the offense this year, while Notre Dame will likely end somewhere in the 30-35 point range. I don’t love betting on the Irish, but if there’s one thing they do well it’s impress in meaningless games against mediocre teams, and this one is right in Kelly’s wheelhouse. Take the Irish to win big.
⛏️ PICK: ND -20.5
MORE: Navy vs. ND simulator
LSU vs. Alabama, Sat Nov 6, 7:00pm (ET)
It truly is a sad day in college football when you see LSU as a 28.5 point underdog. This program is falling apart at the seams as Coach O goes scorched earth on his way out (maybe this is a lesson to not fire someone but let them finish the year?), and the Tigers are probably in for a rough night in Tuscaloosa. How rough? Well, I’ll just say I’m not willing to give up the line here, considering all of the issues Alabama’s defense has had. I do, however, love the over. The Tide average 46 points a game, and that number is actually about the same in SEC games, which tells you that there’s consistency in their dominance. Against an LSU D that’s conceding 30 per , Alabama isn’t likely to do much worse here. It’s the other side of the ball, though, that’s the key to this game. Alabama’s defense has been consistently problematic, partially because they just dont need to be that good, and LSU should be able to give us at least 24 points (if not more) in this one. It’s not an easy cover at 66, but I think we see enough strong offense (and poor defending) to get up to 70+. Take the over, and enjoy some end-to-end football.
⛏️ PICK: Total points OVER 66
MORE: LSU vs. Alabama simulator
Houston vs. USF, Sat Nov 6, 7:30pm (ET)
This line is a bit of a head scratcher for me. So much so, it almost scares me as a trap game, but maybe I’m just so smart that I’ve outwitted the books (Probably not, see the intro). Houston is -13 against the Bulls, and I love them to cover for two reasons; They’re way better overall (which obviously helps) and the USF offense does not set up well here. The former point probably doesn’t take much explaining based on win-loss totals, but let’s talk a little more about the latter. USF isn’t a particularly strong offensive team, and what success they do have primarily comes on the ground where they gain more than 50% of their yards. Unfortunately, Houston has one of the better rush defenses in the country, conceding less than 100 YPG, and USF is going to have to throw the ball if they want to beat them. That’s bad news for them, and it should lead to a downtick in scoring for an already bad offense. As for Houston’s offense, well, they’re probably licking their lips. This team scores almost 40 PPG and USF gives up over 30, including 35 and 41 to BYU and SMU respectively, the two best teams they’ve faced. Houston should do some serious damage here, and their matchup advantage on the other side of the ball gives me a ton of confidence that they can cover this 13 point spread. Take the Cougars to win by closer to 20.
⛏️ PICK: Houston -13
MORE: Houston vs. South Florida simulator
BONUS PICK:
Rice vs. Charlotte, Sat Nov 6, 3:30pm (ET)
Why am I picking this game? Because one of the OG Gold Diggers asked me to and you support the people who supported you. I’m not going to put out a long write up here, but go with the over. When they play well, Charlotte can put points on the board and Rice is an absolute nightmare defensively. The Owls give up 36.5 PPG, which is slightly skewed by some early matchups with big programs, but only slightly. Charlotte is also a mess on that end of the ball, having given up 30+ in each of their last three games, and I think the defensive failures really shine through for this abomination of a game. Take one positive away and go with the over.
⛏️ PICK: Total points OVER 53
What about a game write up for an OG follower? Rice Vs Charlotte Nov. 6th.
— Will (@WillMcBee3) October 31, 2021
MORE: Rice vs. Charlotte simulator
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Prospector Sam is a cartoon man that handicaps as well as anyone on the planet. No one knows exactly who The Prospector is, but what is known is how well he does from sports betting.
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