EPL: Premier League Best Betting Picks for Week 27

The Premier League is heating up and our EPL expert is back with his Premier League Best Bets for Matchweek 27. This week's article features Leeds vs. Brighton and Newcastle vs. Wolves. Read on for our full analysis of this week's plays, and don't forget to check out our Premier League Bet Hub for probabilities and best bets for all of the weekend's action. If you're from Massachusetts betting for the first time this weekend, don't forget to check out the best sportsbook offers for Massachusetts now!

MORE: English Premier League Soccer Best Bets 

Before jumping on these plays, make sure you check out bet365's new customer offer! You can get $200 in site credit when you bet just $1. You're not going to find a better offer than that, as you barely have to put anything on the line to boost up your bankroll! 

Well, this is it. The point in the season where Spurs finally crush my weak, cartoon spirit and leave me wondering whether there is a god or if he just fucking hates Tottenham (which would also make sense, given Arsenal’s comeback against the Cherries). In the span of a week, Spurs got knocked out of both the UCL (a pipe dream, but still a dream) and the FA Cup (a legitimate chance) and now I am left with nothing but tears and some scattered beer bottles. Once again, I’m left with almost three full months to watch other teams win trophies while my club half heartedly fights for a top four spot and then ultimately sells everyone worth a nickel at the end of the season.

Is it surprising? Of course not. I’ve been a Spurs fan for a majority of my life and I have yet to see them win anything. Literally - ANYTHING. But every year my dumb brain convinces me that this is going to finally be the season they break through and give me something to enjoy. Alas, I’ve once again been swindled, and now I have five months to try to pick up the pieces and talk myself back into hoping next year will truly be the year…

Lets go gamble, because I genuinely have nothing else.

Premier League Best Betting Picks - Week 27

Leeds vs. Brighton - Saturday, March 11 at 10:00AM ET

In all honesty, this is going to be a light slate because the board is a bit of a mess. There are a bunch of lopsided matchups that don’t make for great gambling and some weird battles like this one that have a bit of extra variance risk.

That said, I do think this game has goals. Brighton average nearly 2 goals per match and exactly 2 per on the road, which makes them a good candidate to get one or more. Leeds, on the other hand, are sitting dangerously close to relegation and only have a small number of home games left where they can really get aggressive. Knowing that 1 goal is probably not enough to win it, Leeds will have to come out of their shell a bit more and earlier, which should open the game up.

While not spectacular at -116, the price is also worth the wager. Both sides average well over a goal scored and conceded per match, and with Leeds at home they have more incentive to break things open with an increasingly anxious group of supporters. Scoring hasn't flowed quite as regularly in Leeds games as it has in the past, but this match is a solid candidate for a return to their old ways.

PICK: Over 2.5 Goals (-116, 1.25 units) 

Newcastle vs. Wolves - Sunday, March 12 at 12:30PM ET

Things have fallen apart for Newcastle in pretty spectacular fashion over the last few weeks. They went from a team flirting with the big boys to a club sitting outside European spots who cant score to save their fucking lives. Well, call me crazy (because I am), but I think they right the ship here.

Much of the pessimism around Newcastle has to do with a brutal run of fixtures where they faced City, United and Liverpool. Sure, they also had a couple of mediocre matches prior against Bournemouth and West Ham, but overall they’re good enough to beat weaker sides which they’ve done with some regularity this year.

More importantly, they’ve also come out on the other side of a condensed schedule riddled with Cup matches, and they should be recovering better now that those are done. Wolves have found their way out of the relegation fight a bit, but this is still a side with a -16 GD traveling to face a side who is better than them. Add in that Newcastle know that they need to put the gas to the pedal now or get left behind, and I think Howe sets them up for more aggression and risk than normal. TT Over 1.5 is about a coin flip at -113, and I think they have a slightly better chance than that at St. James.

PICK: Newcastle Team Total Over 1.5 Goals (-113, 1.25 units)