EPL 2021/22 Week 28 Soccer Picks and Predictions

Let chaos reign! As we enter the last couple of months of the EPL season, absolutely nothing is certain. City still haven’t pulled away at the top, there are 6 teams still legitimately fighting for European spots, and just 10 points separate 20th from 13th. Basically, hold on to your fucking horses (we need to update that analogy, but “hold on to your cell phones” doesn’t really have the same ring to it), because the next 8 weeks are going to be WILD. And, because of that, I see no reason to delay this any more with long winded commentary or jokes (aka, I don’t have anything else good so I’m cutting things short). Let’s make some money.

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Free EPL Picks 2021-22

Burnley vs. Chelsea: Saturday March 5, 10 AM EST

Chelsea are dealing with a lot right now, both on and off the field. Selling the club in the middle of an international spat is probably a lot to handle, and it showed on the field when they conceded multiple goals to Luton in the middle of the week. And, as much as I want the club to crumble into irrelevance and have Stamford Bridge torn down to become a giant sushi restaurant, I don’t think it’s gonna happen. In line with that, I (sadly) expect that the visitors win this game comfortably. Burnley have been pretty horrendous as of late, and they don’t have the benefit of extra rest because they had a midweek makeup fixture against Leicester (where they lost, once again). Chelsea just have too much talent all over the field, and -220, even for a low payout, is worth the bet.

BUT WAIT, there’s more… As I’ve been doing fairly regularly on the tweeter, we’ve found a pretty valuable add on for games like this that the books haven’t quite figured out. To keep it simple, the books don’t correctly correlate corner kicks and betting on favorites when making a parlay, which allows us to combine the two for a huge bump in value with a low corner total when the multiplier should be lower. For example, Chelsea over 4.5 corners is -430 here. If Chelsea win, it’s likely they had a lot of time attacking and more chances which would mean a high likelihood of at least a minimal number of corners. So, to be able to parlay the two and get the Chelsea ML up from -220 to -114 by adding a low corner total is a great value bonus and one I’ve been taking advantage of heavily. Add that bad boy to boost the value and go for a second win

BET: Chelsea ML (-220) ✅

BONUS: Add Chelsea over 4.5 Corners for (-114) ❌

MORE: Burnley vs. Chelsea simulator

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Newcastle vs. Brighton: Saturday March 5, 10 AM EST

While the last pick was overly chalky, this one is going to be a bit aggressive, so tail cautiously. Basically, it just doesn’t look like the books are adjusting correctly to how much Newcastle have improved and we’re going to continue to take shots based on that assumption until they pull their collective heads out of their collective asses. Newcastle haven't lost in the Prem in 2022 and have won 4 of their 6 matches, so a home tie with a Brighton side that scores less than a goal per game and has a -5 GD is a fairly decent chance at 3 points. With the ML at +170 on Newcastle I can’t help myself from taking this one for a chance at some large payout. If you’re feeling risk averse, you can go with the draw no bet option on Newcastle which is -112, but I’m willing to get risky here because Newcastle’s form is just that fucking good recently (which makes me sick, but it’s true). Look for the stupid bird team to beat even stupider bird team (this is why they pay me the big bucks for my writing).

BET: Newcastle ML (+170) ✅

MORE: Newcastle vs. Brighton

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Man City vs. Man United: Sunday March 6, 11:30 AM EST

Ah yes, the big match everyone cares about this weekend. And rightfully so, since this has HUGE ramifications for the title and Top 4 race. But, honestly, I haven’t got a fucking clue who wins. City are clearly the better team on paper and should handle things at home, but this rivalry has a habit of producing bizarre results and United are such a mystery bag at this point that you really have no idea how they’ll play. All that in mind, I still have a bet that I like and it will also make everyone happy: both teams to score. City’s offensive prowise is unquestioned and they should comfortably be able to find the back of the net on a team who let’s Harry McGuire play on a weekly basis. As for United, there’s obviously more concern but the Red Devils have been creating tons of chances and Bruno Fernandes is in top form at the moment. Oh, and people are starting to doubt Christiano Ronaldo and his future at the club, which is exactly when I’d expect him to step up and do something to shut everyone up. At -118 the price on this bet is surprisingly good, and I’ll gladly take it for something to enjoy as I watch despite the fact that I despise both of these clubs.

BET: Both Teams To Score (-118)

MORE: Man City vs. Man United simulator

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