EPL 2021/22 Week 23 Soccer Picks and Predictions

Prospector Sam is here with your free soccer picks for this weekend's English Premier League soccer action for the weekend of January 22 and 23, 2022.

Arsenal are an abomination. An utter disgrace. The soccer equivalent of Season 2 of True Detective (no, I have not forgiven them). Now, you may be things, “oh Sam, you’re such a Spurs fan. Of course you’re going to get all hot and bothered like a chubby kid who can’t reach the twinkies on the top shelf.” Wrong. I am an absolute lunatic and I am very open about the teams I support, but I firmly believe I’m in the right here.

As a Tottenham supporter, I don’t actually harbor that much hate for Arsenal. Sure, I root for them to suffer, but I’m not from England so the geographical and cultural aspects are lost on me, and players on teams like Chelsea have been much more hateable over the last decade. But that all went out the weekend on Saturday when I found out that Arsenal’s petition for suspending the North London Derby had been accepted.

You see, with Covid the EPL implemented rules for postponing matches when clubs didn’t have a minimum number of players (15) to play a match. It’s been used frequently with major outbreaks, but not uniformly, and left a lot of room for teams to abuse. And, as you guessed, that’s exactly what those snakes at the Emirates did when they requested and won their appeal. The issue? They had ONE FUCKING PLAYER with Covid.

The rest of the missing players? Away at AFCON, a couple of injuries, a player suspended for a red, and multiple players they loaned out less than a week prior. They literally knew they were short on bodies, loaned multiple players, and then called for postponement because they didn’t have enough to field a team.

SHAME. Shame on your family, on your club, on any man or woman who you’ve made love to. We will not forgive, and we will not forget.

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Free EPL Picks 2021-22

Manchester United vs. West Ham: Saturday January 22, 7:30 AM EST

Well, turns out hiring some guy who wants to be retired to come watch over your team for half a season isn’t the greatest idea. United are struggling as their fans kick and scream about how unfair the world is, and they could really use a legitimate win to boost spirits (no, beating Brentford doesn’t count).

Unfortunately, West Ham aren’t a pushover and are back to scoring goals at an astounding rate (2+ in each of their last 6) which makes for a tough side to handle. That said, the Hammers are also shaky defensively and I think this match probably sets up to be a shootout, especially because United are going to need to push for points for fear of dropping further out of European spots and because their fans may legitimately stage a coup.

So, in line with that, let’s combine a couple of safer bets to get up to a solid number. If we take Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 we get -103 for our odds, which is a pretty damn good number in my opinion.

As stated, West Ham are very likely to score at least one while United will be pushing for goals as well, and I think both teams to score (BTTS) is a near certainty. Adding over 2.5 only takes away the 1-1 draw, and the boost from around -150 to -103 is pretty big for only losing a single scoreline.

I expect this game to be a shootout, and the major roadblock would be lack of finishing if a few big chances are missed. I don’t see it happening based on form, and I’m going to park my ass on the couch for this one.

MORE: Man Utd vs. West Ham simulator

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Southampton vs. Man City: Saturday January 22, 12:30PM EST

Time to mix things up. As I’ve mentioned, I try to find new and creative ways to squeeze out value as I learn more and more (you never stop learning as a gambler, and anyone who says they don’t is either a liar or a dummy), and I’m going to try out a new strategy here based heavily on how I expect this match to play out.

City are scoring at a pretty solid clip right now which leads us towards their goal total, but the value isn’t quite worth a bet until over 2.5 and I think there’s a safer path forward since Southampton have been on a decent run over the last month. So, despite it being a bet nobody really uses, I’m taking City to score in both halves at -122.

As I see it, City will come out firing and try to take control of the game early, and I think they’re capable of breaking down the Saints for at least one in the first half. Southampton will be reluctant to stretch themselves out until later in the match, but if they’re down then they have no choice but to start attacking more and pushing bodies forward in the second half, which will leave opportunities for this lethal City attack to exploit.

With more chances, I like them also to score in the second half and “presto,” we have our bet. It’s a bit of an odd approach and fairly narrative driven, but City seem very likely to score at least 2 here and I think splitting it across both halves at -122 is a huge value add considering their TT over 1.5 is -340.

I probably won’t be returning to this honey pot often, but I think this could work out well for us (or I’ve just over thought my way into something incredibly stupid. Only one way to find out I suppose).

MORE: Southampton vs. Man City simulator

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Chelsea vs. Tottenham: Sunday January 23, 11:30AM EST

Watching Chelsea play is an exercise in patience (aka you need to be strapped in Clockwork Orange style to sit through 90 minutes). Tuchel has succeeded with his defensive tactics, but it's absolutely painful to watch and sucks the life out of all the offensive and creative talent they have.

Don't believe me? Just ask star striker Romelu Lukaku who said pretty much that in an attempt to leave because he decided going scorched earth on the club paying his salary was better than having to play another day under Tuchel (and, unfortunately, it didn't work).

But that reality also presents us opportunities to make money if we can find value, and I think we have some on the under. While both of these sides have offensive talent, Chelsea is being completely wasted and Tottenham just can't figure their shit out (especially with the loss of Son to injury).

These two sides recently played in a two leg semi final for the EFL Cup where both legs went under, and I think we get a lot of the same here. Especially after Spurs' miracle win in the midweek against Leicester, I think this game will be a bit more subdued as the heavy fixture schedule weighs both sides down and leads to a less exciting game.

Hopefully Spurs 1-0 (but beggars can't be choosers).

MORE: Chelsea vs. Spurs simulator

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