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EPL 2021/22 Week 21 Soccer Picks and Predictions
Updated: | First published:
Written by Prospector Sam, Contributor
Prospector Sam is here with your free soccer picks for this weekend's English Premier League soccer action, with some bonus La Liga!
Thank god for the Premier League. As a degenerate gambler with a crippling need to watch sports at all times, I’m not sure what I’d do without the constant stream of English soccer going through the holiday period when every other league is taking a vacation. Sure, there have been a number of cancelled games and some weird results as teams struggle to stay afloat between Covid and playing every 3 days, but those guys get paid a lot of money so sympathy is short from me (I actually do have a fair bit of sympathy, but if they weren’t playing I’d have no excuse to not sit down and play Parcheesi for the 19th time with my family and I need a goddamn break).
On top of that, this festive period has been extra festive with all the winning I’ve been doing. A clean sweep of picks (minus the cancelled match) on Boxing Day was a wonderful cure for my crippling hangover, and I’ve been hitting winners at a solid clip since then while other handicappers on twitter just try to slap each other like a couple of middle school girls fighting over who gets to slow dance with Johnny (As you can imagine, I wasn’t exactly “popular” in middle school so I’m making an educated guess on that one). Jokes aside, let’s keep it up with some EPL picks and a bonus La Liga selection because I’ll be damned if I’m going to write a whole “European” article for that silly league.
On to the bets!
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Free EPL Picks 2021-22
Arsenal vs. Manchester City: Saturday January 1, 7:30 AM EST
Recency bias is dangerous for gamblers, but it also presents opportunities for us. The books can be prone to adjusting too much based on single performances, and I think that holds true here. Arsenal have improved dramatically in the last month and sit fourth place, but this team really isn’t all that great and they’ve struggled badly against the Top 3 this year. How badly? They’re 0-3 and have been outscored 11-0, including a 5-0 loss to City in August. And, in line with that trend, we’re going to take City to win to nil (i.e. win and keep a clean sheet). Arsenal’s offense isn’t all that strong to begin with, and the Aubameyang circus has made that unit even thinner and slower than it was before. The way you score on City, as Leicester showcased on Boxing Day, is to counter effectively and Arsenal aren’t built for that at all. On the other end, City are just too good for the gunners to stop and I expect City put in at least a couple in this match. The real danger here is whether Arsenal can manage to net once, but City still boast the best defense in the EPL (12 goals conceded in 20 matches) and 4 of their last 5 wins have been shutouts. Take City to keep the train rolling and knock this Arsenal side back down a notch before their inevitable slide down the table as the season approaches the final stages.
⛏️ PICK: City to win to nil (+200)
MORE: Arsenal vs. Man City simulator
Southampton vs. Newcastle: Sunday January 2, 9 AM EST
This week is the week of the Team Total. Twitter is a bit of a testing ground for me as I improve and adjust my gambling tactics, and I’ve been learning to implement the single team scoring bet more effectively over the last month to some success. The premise is fairly simple: rather than take on extra variables and uncertainty, look for an angle that has some clear value and limit the bet to rely on a single team. Why here? Well, Newcastle’s attack is about as predictable as I am sane, so you’re better off not betting on them. That said, their defense is a fucking nightmare and there’s value on betting teams to score against them because almost everybody does. Here, we’re going to stay a bit cautious and take Southampton to score over 1.5 goals at -136, which is very doable against a team that averages over 2 goals conceded per game, but doesn’t stretch us too thin by looking for a huge offensive performance from the Saints. And, while 2 goals should be enough to win this game for the home side, the money line value is weak (-145) and Newcastle are still liable to put up a weird performance with a couple of goals. By taking this bet instead of the straight win, we get better odds and only give up the 1-0 loss while not having to worry about the Magpies at all. Bet the Saints to find the back of the net more than once.
⛏️ PICK: Southampton Team Total OVER 1.5 (-136)
MORE: Southampton vs. Newcastle simulator
Brentford vs. Aston Villa: Sunday January 2, 9 AM EST
Team Total, Take 2! This one is actually a bit different in reasoning, but follows a lot of the same logic as above. Villa are favored in this game, but only slightly, and +140 to win on the road is a tough pill to swallow for a mid table team. Villa had their midweek fixture cancelled though, which means they’re one of the few teams who got rest and recovery this week, and I think that goes a long way in this match. Brentford just had to spend 90 minutes defending City (truly, almost 90 of those minutes were defending), and the bees are going to have some tired legs on the defensive end of the field (do real bees get tired wings? Tired backs from flapping the wings? I need answers). With Villa running at them close to full speed, I expect the visitors to find the back of the net a couple of times, and the over 1.5 has some damn good value at +144. Much like the last write up, the only lost ML bet is 1-0 and you gain a bunch of extra outcomes by taking the team total, which is a great bonus for a Villa side who have been playing some solid soccer since introducing Gerrard. On a 150% payout for your money, this pick has a ton of value and may be the best of the bunch on this card.
⛏️ PICK: Aston Villa Team Total Over 1.5 (+144)
MORE: Brentford vs. Aston Villa simulator
Chelsea vs. Liverpool: Sunday January 2, 11:30 AM EST
This game is a tough one to piece together, especially after the range of performances we’ve seen out of these two sides over the last couple of weeks. At their best, both are effective offensively (with Liverpool a bit better) and capable of shutting out almost any team in the EPL. Unfortunately, between tired legs and an overload of games, neither has been able to hold that quality consistently, which is why I can’t justify either on the Money Line. Chelsea may have a bit of value at home, particularly because they were the better side when these two faced off earlier in the year until a red card, but the double chance sits at -175 which isn’t high enough to fall in love with. So, rather than mess with that, we’re gonna go for a more fun approach and take the over. As I mentioned, Liverpool are lethal on their best days and Chelsea aren’t far behind. Look no further than their goal scoring record this year if you want proof, with Chelsea scoring 43 goals in 20 games and Liverpool scoring 50 through 19 (both above 2 goals per match for those who struggle without a calculator). While these two are obviously stronger than the average side defensively, the holiday fixture schedule has shown us that it’s harder to stay consistent on that end with squad rotation (which makes sense, communication and cohesion breaks down when you have different players every game) and I think we see more opportunities in this match than you would typically expect. Over 2.5 sits at -132 which isn’t hugely valuable, but for two teams with as much quality up front as Chelsea and Liverpool do I think the payout is better than it should be. Look for some fireworks on both ends in a crucial battle in the race for the title.
⛏️ PICK: Total goals OVER 2.5 (-132)
MORE: Chelsea vs. Liverpool simulator
Related: Betting Previews for every EPL game
Free La Liga Picks 2021-22
Getafe vs. Real Madrid: Sunday January 2, 8 AM EST
Lazy, wimpy, uncreative, lame. All of those words describe this pick that you could inevitably have seen from a mile away, but if I have to beat your head in with it one more time than so be it, because Real at -140 to win this game is a steal. Sure, the La Liga giants are dealing with a number of injuries that will force them to play with a thinner side than normal, but it’s Getafe for Christ sake. Getafe have 15 points through 18 games, sit 16th, and have a -8 GD with 12 goals scored TOTAL. Real Madrid’s backups should be able to handle this match, and with a number of their starters playing and rested after their holiday break, this team should win comfortably. -140 isn’t going to get you rich unless you have a casual 500k lying around to throw on this bet (in which case, you need to take better care of your money. Why is it lying around?), but there’s value here and it’s worth taking a big swing at.
⛏️ PICK: Real Madrid ML (-140)
Prospector Sam is a cartoon man that handicaps as well as anyone on the planet. No one knows exactly who The Prospector is, but what is known is how well he does from sports betting.
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