...
...
Read Article
EPL 2021/22 Matchday 35 Soccer Picks and Predictions
Updated: | First published:
Written by Prospector Sam, Contributor
The sharpest soccer bettor on the net is back, with plays for the English Premier League action this weekend.
Well Tottenham, you got me again. The second I felt confident in them scoring goals it should have been a massive red flag, but I looked at the body of work and talent and said “surely rationality should win out here.” Wrong. God was I wrong. Because, even when I think I’ve figured out where this team struggles and where they can succeed, they prove to me that I have absolutely no idea what I’m fucking talking about. Not only did they not score, they didn’t even manage a shot on net for the SECOND STRAIGHT MATCH.
While I’d like to say that I’ll avoid Tottenham for the rest of the year or learn to spot these pitfalls better, the reality is that this is all just part of gambling. Results don’t always make sense, and even the smartest mind (which surely isn’t me) will never be able to dissect a matchup and perfectly predict outcomes. The best we can do, unfortunately, is decide what mistakes we’re avoidable and which ones were just bad luck. Spurs, while solid offensively, probably was a bad choice (see: 0 shots on goal) while West Ham conceding the the 90th falls more on the “we got fucked” side of the scale. But, so long as we consistently make money in the long term, you’ve just gotta accept things and move on.
With that, time for some gambling. And, in line with my approach to providing units again on my twitter bets, the return of units to the articles! Honestly, I just stopped doing them because I got lazy on here and it’s hard to tell if people even read these things some days. Now, all that aside, let’s boogie (aka gamble).
Prospector Sam's soccer best bets and odds are proudly brought to you by WynnBet.
WynnBET has arrived, so why not join thousands of others bettors (like Shaquille O'Neal) and create an account today?
Simply create your account, place a bet of $10 on any market with odds of -120 or better (i.e. +100, +500, +3000) and then you'll receive $200 in Free Bets – no promo code required!
Free EPL Picks 2021-22
Watford vs. Burnley: Saturday April 30, 10:00 AM EDT
Let’s start things off with a match that embodies one of the best parts of the European soccer system; late season matches between terrible teams. In the US, both of these sides would have phoned it in and probably be trying to lose in order to get better draft picks, but in Europe these fuckers are fighting for their lives because relegation has very real consequences for clubs and players. A true meritocracy, and there are some American leagues (looking at you MLB) who could learn a thing or two. Moving on to the game, I think this match is a little bit more high scoring than the books do, largely because of how bad Watford’s defense is. The Hornets give up over 2 goals per game, and haven’t kept a clean sheet in months, which gives me confidence they concede at least one to Burnley. On the other side, while Burnley are fairly strong defensively, that record is significantly worse away from Turf Moor and Watford have the talent to get one as well (hell, if they scored on City they can score on Burnley). So, for -128 on both teams to score, I think there’s some solid value and I’ll take on that price because both will be highly motivated for a match where neither can afford less than 3 points.
PICK: Both Teams to Score - YES (-128, 1U)
MORE: Burnley vs. Watford simulator
Leeds vs. Man City: Saturday April 30, 12:30PM EDT
I’m normally very reluctant to get aggressive on goal totals when I have to bump up to the Over 2.5 number. 3 goals is a pretty high bar and, in cases like this where the price is just -104, I tend to get a little skittish. But, despite my clearly leading intro, that all goes out the window here because I don’t have a god damn clue how Leeds are going to slow down City. In fairness to the home side, there are a couple of factors in their favor here; City have a midweek UCL fixture, Leeds have kept two straight clean sheets, and City are facing way more pressure to win with Liverpool at their heels. But this team has feasted on anyone not named “Liverpool” or “Spurs” (shoutout us for doing one thing right), and I don’t think Leeds’ defense will be able to hold down all of the attacking options the visitors have. Even with heavy squad rotation, City have more than enough talent to scare almost any side in the world and I think they go medieval all over Leeds’ ass. Look for another high output from Pep’s boys (not to be confused with Pep Boys).
PICK: City Team Total Over 2.5 (-104, 1.5U)
MORE: Leeds vs. Man City simulator
West Ham vs. Arsenal: Sunday May 1, 11:30AM EDT
Well, Arsenal’s resurgence has been extremely frustrating, and wins over Chelsea and United last week may be enough to lift them to a top 4 spot. Sure, they’re also capable of imploding, but it’s hard to deny just how big those two wins were and momentum is on their side, especially on the offensive end. As for West Ham, things are a bit more tricky. They’re out of the running for a Top 4 spot meaning their focus is heavily on the Europa League, and this match is more of an afterthought for them. So we bet Arsenal? Eh, not only does that make my skin crawl, but I don’t think it’s the best angle right now. Instead, I’m going with both teams to score, which is a great price for these two at -130. As I mentioned, Arsenal are in great scoring form and the Hammer’s lack of motivation and tired legs will help their cause on that end. That said, Arsenal haven’t kept a clean sheet in any of their last 5 matches and Tierney’s injury is clearly going to plague them for the remainder of the year. West Ham average over a goal and half per game themselves, and I think they have enough talent to get at least one ball in the back of the net. The odds are fantastic for two high scoring teams who also concede over a goal per match, and I’ll be betting this one heavily.
BET: Both Teams to Score - YES (-130, 2.5U)
MORE: West Ham vs. Arsenal simulator
Follow Prospector Sam on twitter!
Prospector Sam is a cartoon man that handicaps as well as anyone on the planet. No one knows exactly who The Prospector is, but what is known is how well he does from sports betting.
Advertiser disclosure