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EPL 2021/22 Matchday 33 Soccer Picks and Predictions
Updated: | First published:
Written by Prospector Sam, Contributor
There are certain types of bets that feel worse to lose than others. Sure, it’s never fun to lose money and I’ve never walked away from a missed pick feeling good, but there are some losses that put you deeper into the gutter and leave you covered in self loathing. Obvious examples include (1) betting on your favorite team to win and having the double fuck you of lost money and lost pride, (2) making a bet and being so horribly wrong that you make yourself look stupid to your thousands of twitter followers, and (3) making any sort of parlay ever because they’re destined for heartbreak (that may be a personal vendetta, but oh well).
Last week, we hit the metaphorical nail on the head for another type of terrible miss; betting the under on a great game. I took all of my analytical skills and historical knowledge of the EPL and bet the under on City-Liverpool, a game that set up to possibly determine the title but projected lower than people expected in my (poor) opinion. As I said, it wasn’t a fun pick but one that I liked a lot. And, sure enough, those fuckers came out and played absolutely zero defense. Two goals in the first 13 minutes, and the over had hit before half time. Not only did I lose my bet, but I sat there angrily watching what should have been one of the best games of the Premier League season because I’d lost my money.
What’s the lesson here? Absolutely nothing. I don’t make (or not make) bets out of fear about feeling extra sad if I lose, and neither should you. I’ll continue to make my reads, put my money behind it, and let the chips fall. But I also needed to fill an intro, so I figured we could get into some deeper gambling topics (talking about emotions is a strong suit, just ask my 9 therapists) and that’s what I went with.
Now enough of my gabbing, time for some bets.
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Free EPL Picks 2021-22
Southampton vs. Arsenal: Saturday April 16, 10:00 AM EDT
Poor Arsenal. Everything seemed to be going so perfectly for them. Then, all the canceled fixtures started to pile up (remember when you had that Spurs match pushed with only 1 Covid Case? I remember…) and everything has gone downhill. But hey, results often have a lot to do with timing and there is absolutely no better time to be playing Southampton than right now. The Saints got smushed (and not the good kind) 6-0 by Chelsea last time out and have picked up a single point in their last 5. Basically, not much is going right for either club, but that doesn’t mean we can’t make some money. So what’s the play? Give me both teams to score. While the form isn’t great, both of these sides are capable of finding the net and, as previously mentioned in their streak of losses, both are VERY CAPABLE of conceding. Arsenal should find goals even if they continue to trot out Laca to do absolutely nothing, while Southampton can find ways to break down an Arsenal side that appear to be struggling from the loss of Tierney. At -136 the payout isn’t crazy, but the value is certainly there. Hopefully it’s a 5-1 win for Southampton.
PICK: Both teams to score: YES (-136) ❌
MORE: Southampton vs. Arsenal simulator
Newcastle vs. Leicester: Sunday April 17, 9:15AM EDT
Speaking of teams who aren’t very good defensively (i.e. absolutely awful), enter: Newcastle and Leicester. These two have given up a combined 102 goals so far on the season, and both are well into the bottom half for that category for the EPL. Even better, unlike the more limited offense for Southampton, both of these sides are more than capable of scoring goals too. The Foxes average well over a goal and half per game and have scored at least 1 in 7 of their last 8, while Newcastle have improved dramatically after spending all of their blood/oil money in January and have been shut out just twice since 2021. There isn’t all that much to be said past those numbers, so I wont belabor this write up with more nonsense than I need to. BTTS should be closer to -200 in my humble (or, in the case of gambling, not so humble) opinion, and I’ll gladly grab this one for a big bet at -144.
PICK: Both teams to score: YES (-144)
MORE: Newcastle vs. Leicester simulator
West Ham vs. Burnley: Sunday April 17, 9:15AM EDT
With the FA Cup Semi Finals this weekend we’re working from a bit of a limited slate, but I loved the last two bets and I think this one is just as good. Sorry if the teams you recognize aren’t in the fixture list, but the good clubs (i.e. not Tottenham) have managed to make it further in that competition. As for this game, I like West Ham to find the net. Simple, clean, and easy. Burnley looked like they had a prayer at surviving the drop after beating Everton, then they came out and laid a dinosaur sized egg (I assume Dinosaur eggs are big? I wanted something bigger than ostrich which was the biggest I know of) by losing to Norwich. This team just doesn’t have enough quality or gas in the tank to survive, and they’re not getting an easy matchup here facing a West Ham side in need of a win to keep UCL hopes alive. West Ham’s biggest issue will be a trip to France in the midweek which will force some squad rotation for Moyes, but this team is good enough to handle a lower end unit and they’ll throw numbers forward looking for a win. West Ham to score over 1.5 is -115, and I think that’s a fairly comfortable number, especially if they manage to break Burnley down before half. I like the Hammers to have a bounce back game after an ugly loss to Brentford, and I think they take some anger out on an undermanned Burnley side.
BET: West Ham Team Total OVER 1.5 (-115)
MORE: West Ham vs. Burnley simulator
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Prospector Sam is a cartoon man that handicaps as well as anyone on the planet. No one knows exactly who The Prospector is, but what is known is how well he does from sports betting.
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