EPL 2021/22 Matchday 32 Soccer Picks and Predictions

Well folks, we’re now in some dangerous territory. As a Spurs fan, I live in a constant state of fear or pain, either watching my beloved team fuck things up or prepping for the next time they do.

It’s not the best life, but it’s the one I chose. And, while last weekend may seem like a reason for optimism, you won’t catch me getting all excited about Tottenham’s Champions League hopes because I know WAY FUCKING BETTER than to make that mistake. Sure, we looked great and watching Arsenal/Chelsea get demolished was a blast, but that’s exactly when you need to be most diligent.

Spurs will break your heart right when you least expect it, and I’ll be damned if I let them fool me again. As I love to repeat regularly, it’s the hope that kills you, and I don’t have time for things like hope after 12+ years watching this team.

But, while I may be a mess of confusing emotions, the EPL is heating up nicely and we get the ultimate battle between City and Liverpool this weekend which very well could decide the title.

With that, let’s get things moving and go try to win some gold coins. It seems like the reasonable thing to do.

Prospector Sam's soccer picks are proudly brought to you by Caesars Sportsbook.

Free EPL Picks 2021-22

Everton vs. Man United: Saturday April 9, 7:30 AM EDT

Let’s start things off with a trip a bit off the beatin’ path. And by that I mean, a bet that has a lot more to do with “feel” than it does with hard statistics. As a “sharp” (I don’t know whether I qualify but at least I try), sometimes you have to trust your instincts rather than looking for every piece of proof. If gambling was a formula you could solve, all it would take was deductive skills to win money, but that clearly isn’t the case. And, while I try my best to logic my way through bets, sometimes I stick with my gut. Here, I like both teams to score at -134. While the value isn’t massive, United haven’t seemed capable of keeping a clean sheet for most of the season, and Everton, who are now fighting a tough relegation battle, certainly aren’t capable. Both of these teams also have a lot to play for, and are built to win by scoring, which tells me we get a lot of aggressive play here. Everton’s inability to find the net is obviously the biggest concern, but they have the quality to break down a shaky United back line and I think they do enough to get at least a goal. Wake up early for this one and expect an exciting match.

PICK: Both teams to score - YES (-134)

MORE: Everton vs. Man United simulator

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Aston Villa vs. Tottenham: Saturday April 9, 12:30 PM EDT

As is tradition (and necessity), I start every Spurs bet with some droning speech about how I have a personal bias and to keep that in mind because I feel obligated to. Sue me for caring and understanding where I may be short sighted. But, as a fan, I have also watched every minute they’ve played and this team is clicking offensively right now. Want proof? No team in the EPL has scored more goals in 2022 than Tottenham. That’s why, after some very simple deductive skill, I can say there is value at Spurs to score over a goal and a half at +118. Villa aren’t particularly bad defensively, but they’ve given up multiple goals in 2 of their last 3 games and their season is about over, sitting in 11th with 8 games to play. Nothing to worry about as far as the drop but no real chance of Europe, which means motivation won’t be high. While Spurs are absolutely liable to put up a horrible performance and blow a game they NEED to win, I think that failure is more likely to happen on the defensive end than offensive. Spurs have too much talent up front for Villa to slow down, and I expect 2 goals is the minimum here. Please don’t let me down, Tottenham, I can’t handle another failure (not really, I say that every year and I always come crawling back).

BET: Spurs Team Total OVER 1.5 (+118)

MORE: Aston Villa vs. Tottenham simulator

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Man City vs. Liverpool: Sunday April 10, 11:30 AM EDT

I absolutely hate doing this, but I need to; I’m betting the under. This match gives us a “rock and hard place” decision as far as the total, since both sides are top 2 in goals scored and goals conceded. And, to be fair, I think you could justify anywhere from 0 to about 6 goals in this match without being a total lunatic. But, while this game could get spicier than jalapeno (I’m told jalapenos aren’t that spicy, but as a white man this qualifies for me) if both play up to their potential offensively, I don’t see it happening. To begin, this game has massive implications for the title, and in matches like that the trend over time is for both to play conservatively to avoid the huge mistake that costs them the game. Given that both are impressive on the defensive end, if they focus their energy on that side then goals should be minimized. On top of that, both have had to play midweek UCL fixtures which will force squad rotation and tired legs on offense, and I expect that the quality may see a slight dip. It’s not a fun way to bet this game, especially because we’d all love to see a couple of golazos, but history and current factors tell me this game will skew toward the lower end, and the value is great for under 2.5 at +126. These two have given up a combined 38 goals so far this season, and I think we get more of the same on Sunday.

BET: Total goals UNDER 2.5 (+126)

MORE: Man City vs. Liverpool simulator

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