EPL 2021/22 Matchday 31 Soccer Picks and Predictions

Welcome back, soccer, I’ve missed you dearly. Don’t get me wrong, I love watching international footy as much as the next guy and there’s more than enough excitement there to keep me tuned in (shout out to Italy for their impressive downfall to North Macedonia).

But international soccer tends to be more erratic, making it harder to bet on, and there aren't nearly as many games. I need wall to wall soccer from 7 AM to 3 PM on weekends or I don’t have a damn clue what to do with myself, and I felt naked as I walked around the farmers market with my fiance (I’m a dutiful partner if nothing else) without a dollar of action to worry about.

And, even better, we’re now entering into the best, craziest, most gut-wrenching part of the season where titles are won and pain is endured (that’s my role, when Tottenham inevitably crush my soul). Make sure you have your xanax on hand, because the major EPL races are WIDE FUCKING OPEN and I haven’t got a clue how things shake out. Well, except for Norwich getting relegated. Those assholes haven’t got a prayer.

With that, let’s get back to what we do best; gambling!

Prospector Sam's soccer picks are proudly brought to you by Caesars Sportsbook.

Free EPL Picks 2021-22

Liverpool vs. Watford: Saturday April 2, 7:30 AM EDT

If you aren’t exactly ecstatic about watching this game, I don’t blame you. Not only is it playing at an ungodly hour, but everything about it projects to be a lopsided battle, which makes it a less than ideal game to watch. But, when there’s money to be made, who gives a damn, and I have a bit of a surprising pick here (at least, I expect you to be surprised). We’re going with BTTS, which pays plus money at +104. I don’t need to explain to you how the best offense in the EPL, Liverpool, is going to score on the second worst defense, Watford, so we can skip that part and move to the opposite end of the field. Watford is not all that bad offensively, averaging a goal per game on the season, and they have legitimate talent up front in Dennis. And, with the season grinding closer to an end, which will put the fear of god and all things holy (aka Harry Kane) into them because of their real relegation concerns, I expect Watford to come out aggressive. Liverpool’s defense is steady and strong, but they haven’t been as tight as of late and their goal scoring record allows them some wiggle room for mistakes on that end of the field. I think Watford, with almost nothing to lose in this match (they expect to come away with 0 points), will create a few chances and ultimately find the net once. At a payout over 1:1 here, I think the value is solid as well.

PICK: Both teams to score - YES (+104)

MORE: Liverpool vs. Watford simulator

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Brentford vs. Chelsea: Saturday April 2, 10:00 AM EDT

I’m not sure I’m allowed to make a joke about former/sort of current Chelsea owner Roman Abramovic potentially getting poisoned in war settlement negotiations, so I’ll note that things are continuing to go… poorly for Chelsea off the field and leave it at that. But, on the field, those potential future issues haven’t caused any real havoc and Chelsea are (unfortunately) humming along having won their last 6 competitive matches. And, if I’m being totally honest (which I am, I want your trust), I can’t see much changing here. Brentford are not a particularly good side and their defensive record is pretty ugly, while Chelsea have scored multiple goals in 5 of their last 6 matches, which tells you everything you need to know. Basically, expect goals. Sure, there will be concern about tired legs coming off an international break, but many of Chelsea’s players didn’t have to face a competitive match because Europe has already finished qualifiers, and they’ll be more rested than normal because of it. With the West Londoners still not out of reach on their UCL spot, they’ll want to keep pushing and likely hammer a bottom 5 team at home. That’s why we’re going with a trusted strategy around these parts and taking Chelsea TT Over 1.5 (-205) and Over 2.5 (+176). The payout for the lower threshold at -205 isn’t huge, but it provides protection from getting too aggressive and winning nothing while also providing a chance to double dip and win both (acceptable for gambling, not for salsa). I think Chelsea could put up an ugly number here, and will gladly take a shot at some strong payout (well, not gladly because fuck Chelsea, but I do like money).

BET: Chelsea Team Total OVER 1.5 (-205), OVER 2.5 (+176)

MORE: Brentford vs. Chelsea simulator

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West Ham vs. Everton: Sunday April 3, 9:00 AM EDT

Whoever set the total odds for this game apparently doesn’t watch a lot of West Ham matches. Typically, I expect the Hammers’ odds to be around -150 for over 2.5 because they play a high tempo and aggressive style that leads to tons of goals. Look no further than their 49 scored and 39 conceded in 30 matches if you want proof. So, unless the matchup presents serious concerns, I’m happy to take that over at -108 where it currently stands. While Everton aren’t an ideal counterpart, especially with their scoring issues on the season, the Toffees give up lots of goals and could concede enough to get us over the mark themselves (see: 4-0 loss to CP last match). There is some concern that, in the middle of a relegation battle, they may try to sit in and play for a 1-0 match, but they aren’t really built to do that with most of their talent up front, and I expect both sides try to beat each other’s brains offensively like [insert lazy Will Smith Oscars reference] and we get over the mark here. Look for an exciting match to start your sunday morning (hangover?) right.

BET: Total goals OVER 2.5 (-108)

MORE: West Ham vs. Everton simulator

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