...
...
Read Article
EPL 2021/22 Matchday 29 Soccer Picks and Predictions
Updated: | First published:
Written by Prospector Sam, Contributor
CHOOO CHOOOOO! That’s right, Gold Diggers and Gold Diggers (think ladies and gentlemen, but it’s not a gendered term so that’s what I went with), our EPL picks are plugging down the track like one of those supersonic trains they’re building that go a billion miles an hour.
Aside from Chelsea being too clinical in front of net, which minimized their corner kick total, we were able to comfortably hit every major bet this weekend and that’s always a damn good feeling. Sure, as a fan of Tottenham, we’ve got some issues - most notably the fact that Arsenal have annoyingly gotten their shit together and look primed to grab a UCL spot - but so long as we’re making money there can’t be too much to complain about.
Where does that leave us? As always, the answer is “keep pushing.” It’s easy to fall into the trap of thinking you’ve figured things out or know how to read the board coming off a winning week, and that complacency inevitably leads to failure. If there’s one thing I’ve accepted in my many years as a gambler, it’s that you always have more to learn and you can’t expect anything. So, while we can enjoy our strong week and effective choices on the best spots to hit, this week presents an entire new set of challenges that we have to dig in on. Add in midweek European and EPL matches on Thursday, and there could easily be a couple of curveball results to catch us if we aren’t careful.
With that, I promise I’ve done my homework and that these are the angles I like the most for this weekend. Let’s make some more money.
Prospector Sam's soccer picks are proudly brought to you by Caesars Sportsbook.
Free EPL Picks 2021-22
Brighton vs. Liverpool: Saturday March 12, 7:30 AM EST
Last week, I introduced one of my favorite strategies in the article and it came back to bite me on the ass (which, quite frankly, is a place im not fond of being bitten on). But I’m nothing if not persistent, so we’re going right back to the well for a shot at redemption and to prove that this theory works. To recap, I like to bet favorites and add in their corner totals because I think the correlation is high and books don’t reduce the parlay value for that correlation. Unfortunately, getting corners requires defense and Burnley just imploded in the second half by giving up 4 goals, so we fell short. Liverpool obviously sets up to win this game, and telling you that one of the best teams in Europe is going to beat Brighton isn’t very insightful. At -210, though, the money is actually fairly nice considering that they’re continuing to chase City and Brighton has lost four straight. Add in that Liverpool should have the lion’s share of possession here and that Brighton will likely stick numbers behind the ball (which will lead to a lot of opportunities for corner kicks) and I think there’s a lot of value for adding in Liverpool over 4.5 corners to squeeze some extra juice out of that orange and get the price down to -106. Bet the Money Line as well for some safer profit, but add in the bonus for some solid payout and a chance at hitting both.
BET: Liverpool ML (-210)
BONUS BET: Parlay with Over 4.5 Liverpool Corners (-106)
MORE: Liverpool vs. Brighton simulator
West Ham vs. Aston Villa: Sunday March 13, 10 AM EST
Some days, the numbers dictate the picks. Part of my “process” requires looking through the slate and finding angles and value where I feel I have a better understanding than the average gambler. However, sometimes things are just as simple as seeing the number the book is giving out and recognizing that the statistics don’t reflect what they’re saying. And that is absolutely the reality for the number they’re giving out on BTTS here, which isn’t crazy valuable at -144 but should be closer to -200. In 26 matches Villa have scored 37 and conceded 37, while West ham have scored 46 and conceded 35 in 28, and it doesn’t take a brain surgeon to figure out that there is a damn high likelihood that both teams score here. Sure, each has a Thursday fixture which will require squad rotation and cause some tired legs, but these are two teams who play aggressive soccer and go for 3 points rather than drowning out matches. Villa would obviously be the bigger concern here since they’re away and have the lower goal total, but this side has scored 6 in their last 2 matches and have enough quality to put at least one in. Basically, this pick has nothing to do with my brilliance (or lack thereof), just go with what the numbers tell you.
BET: Both teams to score = YES (-144)
MORE: West Ham vs. Aston Villa
Leicester vs. Arsenal: Sunday March 13, 12:30 PM EST
I’m going to start off this pick by saying I understand that I’m biased against Arsenal and that it’s certainly in Spurs best interest for the Gunners to not pick up 3 points. But, for the love of God, in what fucking world is this team good enough for Leicester to be +150 on the double chance. Arsenal are in solid form having picked up 4 wins in their last 4, but this team still doesnt have a real striker and their best win in that span is a 1-0 away win over Wolves, a team who scores less than a goal per game. Sure, Leicester aren’t without their issues (they have enough to fill a book) and they’re liable to give up a couple of bad mistakes, but this team is also playing well at the moment and they have more quality than their 12th spot in the table suggests. At +150, the payout is extremely nice here and I’ll gladly take a shot at a 2 for 1 in the form of a big payout and Arsenal suffering.
BET: Leicester double chance (+155)
MORE: Leicester vs. Arsenal simulator
RELATED: Betting Previews for every EPL game
Prospector Sam is a cartoon man that handicaps as well as anyone on the planet. No one knows exactly who The Prospector is, but what is known is how well he does from sports betting.
Advertiser disclosure