Dinger Tuesday Picks: Our Best Home Run Parlay Bet for July 1 features Rafael Devers

If you're wondering who will hit a home run today, then you've come to the right place!

The 2025 MLB season is rolling along and the all-user FanDuel Sportsbook bonus code available today, July 1, is their Dinger Tuesday promotion, offering a solid opportunity for bettors looking to profit on the best home run bets - especially when paired with the power of Dimers Pro and today's +2937 home run parlay.

If you're new to MLB betting, Dinger Tuesday is FanDuel's long-running home run–themed promotion that drops every Tuesday during the MLB season. While this year's version doesn’t offer the same bonus bet payout per home run as last season, it still packs a punch for smart bettors using our best home run props.

Opt in to the Dinger Tuesday promo on FanDuel Sportsbook to receive a 50% Profit Boost Token to apply to any “To Hit a Home Run” wager for that Tuesday's MLB games. You can use the Profit Boost on any eligible straight or parlay home run prop—just note that there’s a maximum bet limit and a few restrictions (bonus funds, odds boosts, and cash-outs are ineligible).

Plus, all new users at FanDuel can also score $200 in bonus bets if their first $5 wager placed on the sportsbook wins, which can be claimed via the offer below.

What is Dinger Tuesday?

Opt in to the Dinger Tuesday promo on FanDuel Sportsbook to receive a 50% Profit Boost Token to apply to any “To Hit a Home Run” wager for that Tuesday's MLB games. You can use the Profit Boost on any eligible straight or parlay home run prop—just note that there’s a maximum bet limit and a few restrictions (bonus funds, odds boosts, and cash-outs are ineligible).

Say you use your Profit Boost Token on a +400 home run prop for Mookie Betts. Your 50% Profit Boost Token turns that into a +600 bet, meaning a $25 wager will now win $150 instead of $100.

Dimers Pro gives you access to daily HR prop predictions beyond just Dinger Tuesday—dozens of options on packed slates like today's—and highlights which bets carry positive expected value against the sportsbooks. Combined with the weekly Dinger Tuesday boosts, that edge can turn a single swing into a big payday.

Dinger Tuesday Home Run Bets for July 1

Below, you will find our Dinger Tuesday picks, and unless otherwise noted, will feature a Top 5 overall Home Run probability, and a strong value prop, one where the odds boost gives us a better price than our probability says it should be.

Note: This week features several games likely to be postponed or delayed with just a few home run props with value on Dimers, so we're utilizing our favorite matchups today.

Dimers Pro users can access every home run probabilities for every single player here which will allow you to sort by probability, player or individual games. We also drop our Top 25 Home Run Probabilities in our Dimers Pro VIP Discord every day, where our users are putting the data to work.

For a longshot, you can play both of these home run picks together for a juicy parlay at +2937 odds, up from +2937 with the Dinger Tuesday boost.

Home Run Bet: Isaac Paredes (Astros)

• Game: Astros @ Rockies
• Dimers Probability: 16.7%
• FanDuel Odds: +330
• 50% Boosted Odds: +495

Today we start off with Isaac Paredes of the Astros when Houston heads to the best HR park of them all, Coors Field in Colorado.

Paredes is up to 17 HR this year with a shot at his best season yet for power. He's not a super slugger - his Barrel % is in the bottom third of MLB, but he hits the sweet spot of the bat for some great launch angle. He's particularly built for the Astros park as he hits all of his home runs just over the left field wall, but with the wind blowing out and the natural elevation boost from Coors, he shouldn't have trouble getting over their 347-foot left field wall.

Rockies starter Chase Dollander is ranked in the bottom 4th percentile in Barrel % and has allowed four HR in his past five starts. He primarily throws a 4-seamer (49%) and curveball (23%) which are two of Paredes' top pitches by run value and slugging. The Rockies bullpen is also allowing the 6th-most home runs over the past two weeks.

Paredes' 16.7% probability makes fair odds of +500, which is right where you can get him with the 50% profit boost.

Home Run Bet: Rafael Devers (Giants)

• Game: Giants @ Diamondbacks
• Dimers Probability: 15.5%
• FanDuel Odds: +390
• 50% Boosted Odds: +585

For our second home run pick, we're looking at the newest San Francisco Giant to go yard in his first series vs. a new divisional rival.

Rafael Devers was 0-4 vs the Diamondbacks last night but gets a great bounceback spot with Zac Gallen taking the mound in Chase Field tonight.

With a pair of home runs since joining San Francisco, Devers has the best Barrel and Hard Hit rates of his team over the past month and is ranked Top 20 in all of MLB.

Over the past month, Gallen has the worst Barrel % in MLB at 18.2% with a rough 6.23 ERA to go along with it. He's allowed 2 HR in back-to-back starts, and in every one of his five June starts for 9 total HR last month. Gallen throws 4-seam (48%), Curve (24%) and Changeup (14%), while Devers has mashed all variations of the fastball, as well as the curveball this year.

The D-Backs bullpen has struggled all year and is tied with the Rockies for the 6th-most HR allowed over the past two weeks.

Devers gets a 15.5% probability from our model for fair odds of +545, while the boost takes up him up to +585 at FanDuel.

Dinger Tuesday Home Run Parlay

For those looking to play a longshot, pair these two bets for a +2937 home run parlay, up from +1958 odds pre-boost.

With just one 50% profit boost, you won't be able to boost both singles and this MLB parlay, so you'll have to apply your profit boost strategically across your picks.

Playing the singles gives you a higher chance at a profit, as hitting one is more likely than both, but playing the parlay gives you the biggest total payout.

If you play the parlay, whether with or without the boost, we recommend placing a smaller unit size than you would on a straight wager as it comes with significantly higher risk.

Dinger Tuesday Strategy Guide

If you're looking to make your own selections, consider these tips to help you narrow down your targets from the list of many potential sluggers on Tuesday.

1. High Probabilities

This method is as straightforward as it comes. Bet on the player with the highest probability to hit a home run in any game or multiple games

If you choose this method, then you'll often be betting on the home run leaders like Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Cal Raleigh., etc at shorter odds. This is a lower upside method, but you'll be backing players who are likely contend for the top of the HR list at the end of the season.

Dimers Pro users can sort by home run props here, use the Dimers Pro Hitter Hub, or pop into the Dimers Pro Discord where we release our Top 25 HR Probabilities every day.

2. Maximum Value

The second strategy we'll look at is to back players with edges in their odds. These are often going to be higher risk, lower probability plays, but they will return big profits if they win.

You'll find these high-value home run props at the top of our home run edges each and every Tuesday, though you may not always find the best odds on FanDuel. That's a very important distinction, because if the value in a particular home run prop is only on an other book, then it may not be a play worth making for Dinger Tuesday since you must place that bet on FanDuel to use your profit boost.

Even still, you can find value on players with high probabilities, or take a shot on an already longer odds play, boosted even higher by a 50% boost.

3. Do the Extra Research

The best way to use Dimers Pro is alongside the wealth of MLB statistics out there. Weather, pitch types, ballparks, head-to-head matchups...these are just a handful of the factors that can weigh into home run props. 

Some key factors to look at when making your home run picks:

• Matchup: Your batter's success against the starting pitcher's varying pitch types
• Bullpens: When the starter gets pulled, which teams relievers are serving up dingers?
• Ballpark Factors: Short porch? Elevation boost? Not all parks are built equal
• Head-to-Head History: What has a batter done vs. the starter in the past
• Weather: Cold: bad. Wind: good (in the right direction). Always check the weather reports

With dozens of props available on Dimers Pro, it's always good to check on these other data points to help you narrow down which bets to make.

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