Dimers Summer School: Probability vs. Edge

If you’re using Dimers.com to guide your sports betting, you’ve probably seen two key numbers that appear in nearly every matchup preview: probability and edge. In fact, one of the most common questions we get it: what is most important when it comes to using the Dimers tools?

While both are crucial for making smart bets, they serve very different purposes. Understanding the difference between them can help you make more informed, value-based betting decisions, and avoid the common mistake of betting based on gut feel or hype alone.

As part of our Dimers.com Summer School series, we breakdown what each term means, how Dimers calculates them, and how to use them effectively.

What Is Probability on Dimers?

Probability is the likelihood that an event will happen, expressed as a percentage. For example, if Dimers shows a team has a 62% probability to win, that means that based on our predictive models- where we simulate every game 10,000 times, that team has won in 6,200 of the 10,000 games we simulated.

Dimers’ probability percentages come from thousands of simulations run by their predictive analytics system, that we like to call the DimersBOT. This model considers many factors, including team performance, player stats, injuries, betting markets, weather and thousands more data points that get down to a very granular level.

For each betting market - moneyline, spread, over/under and props, Dimers provides a projected probability for each possible outcome. These projections represent what the model believes will happen, not necessarily what the sportsbooks think will happen.

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What is Edge on Dimers?

While probability shows what might happen, edge shows where the value lies. That is, how much of an advantage you might have over the sportsbook.

Edge is calculated by comparing Dimers’ projected probability with the implied probability of the odds being offered by a sportsbook.

For example, let's say Dimers projects a team has a 62% chance to win. A sportsbook is offering that team at +110 odds, which implies a 47.6% chance to win. The edge is the difference between those two percentages: 62% – 47.6% = 14.4% edge.

That 14.4% edge means Dimers believes there is significant value in betting on that outcome, because the sportsbook is underestimating the true probability of it hitting. In simple terms, edge = Model's projected probability – Bookmaker’s implied probability.

A positive edge indicates a potentially profitable bet in the long run. A negative edge means you’re betting into a line where the sportsbook likely has the advantage.

MORE: Best Player Props for Today

Why Edge Is More Important Than Probability Alone

Many bettors fall into the trap of betting on outcomes with the highest probability, thinking it’s a “sure thing.” But high probability doesn’t always equal smart value.

Let’s use a hypothetical NFL game as an example, with the Kansas City Chiefs having a 70% chance to win against the Tennessee Titans. The sportsbook has them listed at -250, which implies a 71.4% chance. Here, the edge is negative, as Dimers projects a lower win probability than what the odds suggest. So even though the Chiefs are likely to win, the bet doesn’t offer good value. And let's face it, we've all been on the wrong end of a heavy favorite that didn't do their damn job.

On the other hand, the Titans may only have a 30% chance to win, but if the 'book is offering +400 odds (implied 20%), the edge is 10% in your favor. That could be a smart underdog play. 

How to Use Edge and Probability Together on Dimers

Here’s a simple rule: Use probability to understand what’s likely to happen, and use edge to identify where your money has the most value.

When both are aligned, a high probability AND a positive edge, you’ve found a strong bet.

Dimers.com makes this easy by highlighting top plays with the biggest edge each day. These are called “Best Bets”, and they’re updated in real-time as lines move.

MORE: Dimers' Best Bets for Today

In sports betting, your goal shouldn’t just be to pick winners, it should be to find bets with value. That’s why understanding both probability and edge is essential.

Dimers.com gives you both tools in one place, helping you bet smarter, not harder. Learn to think in terms of value, and you’ll be better positioned to win over the long term, no matter the sport or market.

Finding sportsbooks for the best odds and bonus offers is easy on the Dimers Best Betting Sites page. Find the best offer in your state and click through to sign up. The process is fast and easy for most sportsbooks with registration completed in less than a couple of minutes.

Responsible Gambling

Remember to please gamble responsibly. If you sense that you're taking your luck too far, know when to call it quits and don't be afraid to seek assistance. Keep in mind that gambling is all about having a fantastic experience! If you or someone you know is grappling with gambling issues, reach out to 1-800-GAMBLER for crisis counseling and support.