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Nuggets vs. Thunder Prediction: Oklahoma City Predicted to Win Game 1 [2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Our expert prediction for Monday's Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder Game 1 matchup.
The Oklahoma City Thunder will square off with the Denver Nuggets in Game 1of their 2025 NBA Playoffs series at Paycom Center on Monday, beginning at 9:30PM ET.
Based on updated simulation results and today’s injury news, Dimers' advanced NBA model (see Dimers Pro for full access) predicts the Thunder as the most likely winner of Game 1.
"Our team has utilized the latest data to simulate Monday's Denver-Oklahoma City game 10,000 times," said Damien Souness from Dimers.
"Incorporating recent updates and thousands of additional inputs, our prediction shows the Thunder are likely to win, with a probability of 78%, compared to the Nuggets' 22%."
This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Thunder lineup will feature players like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren, while the Nuggets will be led by Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon.
For further insights into Monday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks, visit our interactive Nuggets vs. Thunder predictions page.
Thunder vs. Nuggets Prediction: Who Will Win Game 1?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Monday's NBA Playoffs matchup between the Nuggets and Thunder 10,000 times as part of our NBA predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Thunder a 78% chance of defeating the Nuggets in Game 1 of the series. Our predicted final score has the Thunder winning 118-109.
According to our model, the Nuggets (+10.5) have a 55% chance of covering the spread, while the 228.5-point over/under has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.
Nuggets vs. Thunder Game 1 Odds
We have sourced the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Nuggets | Thunder |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +10.5 (-110) | -10.5 (-108) |
| Moneyline | +360 | -460 |
| Total | o228.5 (-110) | u228.5 (-105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Boost your NBA betting by exploring the latest NBA betting promos, sourced from top sportsbooks and DFS operators.
Nuggets vs. Thunder Picks and Best Bets for Game 1
Our model's biggest edge in today's Nuggets vs. Thunder matchup is on the total.
Our expert predictions, aligned with the best odds, reveal the best NBA picks and NBA best bets for every game throughout the season.
Unlimited access to our full set of picks, including this one, is available via Dimers Pro.
Nuggets vs. Thunder Game 1 Player Props
NBA player props are a popular way to wager on the Denver vs. Oklahoma City game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Paycom Center.
Nikola Jokic is expected to lead the Nuggets in scoring, while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is projected to be the top scorer for the Thunder.
Dimers Pro users can access a full range of player props and projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and more, for every NBA game this season.
Nuggets vs. Thunder Game 1 Updates and Essential Details
Monday's Game 1 between the Thunder and Nuggets in the NBA Playoffs is scheduled to start at 9:30PM ET.
- Who: Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
- Date: Monday, May 5, 2025
- Time: 9:30PM ET/6:30PM PT
- Venue: Paycom Center
- NBA Playoffs Bracket: Updated NBA Playoffs bracket and schedule
The NBA Playoffs is an annual postseason tournament held to decide the league's champion.
Sixteen teams, including the Nuggets and Thunder, made the 2025 NBA Playoffs, which includes four rounds: the First Round, Conference Semifinals, Conference Finals, and NBA Finals.
Each round is contested as a best-of-seven series, with the first team to four wins progressing to the next round until a champion is crowned. Dimers.com's full preview of Monday's Nuggets vs. Thunder matchup includes our prediction, picks and the latest betting odds.
Before making any Denver vs. Oklahoma City picks, be sure to check out the latest NBA predictions and betting advice from Dimers Pro.
Conclusion
We predict the Thunder, with a 78% win probability, will likely beat the Nuggets on Monday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Nuggets vs. Thunder insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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